SUDAN-SOUTH SUDAN: What the analysts are saying post-secession*
JUBA, 4 October 2011 (IRIN) - Clashes in areas along the border between
Sudan and newly independent South Sudan have displaced tens of thousands of
people and prompted warnings of a widening cycle of violence and regional
Here is a round-up of recent publications by think tanks, analysts and human
o-sudan-avoiding-a-new-crisis.aspx> In Sudan - Avoiding a New Crisis, the
International Crisis Group said the "risk of implosion" in Sudan "was very
real" and that violence was "spiraling out of control" in
> South Kordofan and
> Blue Nile.
The report, published on 1 October, pointed to the dashed hopes raised by
the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Accord between Khartoum and the former southern
rebellion: "more legitimate, inclusive governance - a platform for dealing
with the grievances of marginalised groups in the peripheries of the
country, including Darfur, the East, the transitional areas of Southern
Kordofan, the Blue Nile, and Abyei, as well as the political opposition."
"If Khartoum continues to block reform efforts to build more inclusive
governance, then prolonged armed conflict is inevitable. With multiple
grievances still unsettled, this would mean insurgency will spread in the
North. This could have destabilizing, spillover effects in the Republic of
South Sudan and the region as a whole," ICG said.
"The North needs a holistic approach to resolve its problems, and
international actors need to develop a more cohesive strategy that helps to
make it a viable partner for peace and stability throughout the region," it
In late August, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International
air-strike-horror> documented civilians in South Kordofan talking about the
daily, indiscriminate bomb attacks by the Sudanese Armed Forces that have
killed many civilians and displaced more than 150,000 people since June.
"Agents of the ruling National Congress Party have perpetrated the large
majority of the violations of human rights committed in South Kordofan and
Blue Nile states," the Africa Centre for Justice and Peace Studies said in a
s.pdf> report covering in detail events in late August and early September.
"Members of the international community, particularly the African Union, UN
Human Rights Council and UN Security Council should condemn these violations
and send the message to perpetrators that they will be held accountable for
crimes committed," it urged.
Magdi El Gizouli, a fellow of the Rift Valley Institute,
too many people "addicted to the pornography of bloodshed" who know too
little about Sudan of meddling in its affairs. He criticizes NGOs for
spurring on rebellions in Blue Nile from ousted SPLM governor Malik Agar and
Abdal-Aziz al-Hilu's operations in South Kordofan in the belief they will
bring down Bashir's regime. He explains why calling for US military
intervention, the imposition of a no-fly zone over Darfur, South Kordofan
and the Blue Nile and the destruction of the government's offensive aerial
assets are as bad at fomenting further unrest as hardline pledges of
fighting until dissent is stamped out.
When Sudanese Armed Forces stormed into Abyei in May, the George
Clooney-sponsored Satellite Sentinel Project claimed
es-and-intentional-destruction-abyei-town-government-sudan> footage showed
that one-third of civilian buildings were destroyed by tanks and looting.
More than 110,000 people fled south of the border and have been stuck in
South Sudan ever since in areas hit by flooding and food insecurity, as the
UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian affairs (OCHA) requested
humanitarian access to Abyei.
The former southern minister
ously-threatened> Luka Biong Deng also called for access to the disputed
territory from both sides of the border on legal and political grounds that
mean the area of "special status" belongs to no one until both countries
reach an agreement.
The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) warned that escalating inter-communal
violence in Jonglei from cattle raids threatened to destabilize the new
country. UNMISS Special Representative Hilde Johnson said containing the
increasing brutality and sophistication of these armed attacks to a state
the size of Bangladesh was the peacekeeping mission's highest priority. "If
it gets out of hand, we will be in a situation where the cycle of violence
will escalate to unknown proportions in South Sudan," she said on 27
Sudan researcher and veteran Khartoum critic
> Erich Reeves, writing in
Dissent Magazine mourns the loss of the UN Panel of Experts for Darfur set
up in 2005 to monitor an embargo on the movement of arms and military
supplies and a UN Security Council ban on military flights into the Darfur
region. Reeves says Darfur has been bombed more than 100 times this year,
and that Sudan's government has succeeded in closing down the most
authoritative body investigating reports of indiscriminate aerial attacks,
and those targeting civilians.
A Human Rights Watch report in
> July also lamented
the world's apparent disinterest in Darfur since South Sudan's independence.
It said that during this period, Sudan stepped up bombing attacks on
civilians, displacing more than 70,000 people, largely from ethnic Zaghawah
and Fur communities linked to rebel groups.
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Received on Tue Oct 04 2011 - 18:10:20 EDT