Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2011 19:22:10 +0100
Arab uprisings reshape map of US influence
BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press
Published 07:45 a.m., Sunday, December 11, 2011
DUBAI, United Arab
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Emirates%22> Emirates (AP) - About 18 months
before the Egyptian uprising that would doom
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Hosni+Mubarak%22> Hosni Mubarak, a U.S.
diplomatic cable was sent from Cairo. It described Mubarak as the likely
president-for-life and said his regime's ability to intimidate critics and
rig elections was as solid as ever.
Around the same time, another dispatch to the State Department came from the
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22American+Embassy%22> American Embassy in
Tunisia. In a precise foreshadowing of the revolts to come, it said the
country's longtime leader,
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Zine+el-Abidine+Ben+Ali%22> Zine el-Abidine
Ben Ali, had "lost touch" and faced escalating anger from the streets,
according to once-classified memos posted by Wikileaks.
So what was it? Was America blindsided or bunkered down for the Arab Spring?
The case is often made that Washington was caught flatfooted and now must
adapt to diminished influence in a Middle East with new priorities. But
there is an alternative narrative: that the epic events of 2011 are an
opportunity to enhance Washington's role in a region hungry for democracy
and innovation, and to form new strategic alliances.
There is no doubt that Washington was jolted by the downfall of its Egyptian
and Tunisian allies. The revolutions blew apart the regimes' ossified
relationships with the U.S. and cleared the way for long-suppressed Islamist
groups that eye the West with suspicion.
But declaring a twilight for America in the Mideast ignores a big caveat:
The Persian Gulf. There are deep U.S. connections among the small but
economically powerful and diplomatically adept monarchies, emirates and
sheikdoms, which so far have ridden out the upheavals and are increasingly
flexing their political clout around the Arab world.
The Gulf Arabs and America are, in many ways, foreign policy soul mates.
Both share grave misgivings about Iran's expanding military ambitions and
its nuclear program. The Gulf hosts crucial U.S. military bases - including
the Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain - and is an essential part of
the
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Pentagon%22> Pentagon's strategic blueprint
for the Mideast after this year's U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
In summary: America's influence took blows from the Arab Spring, but also
remains hitched to the rising stars in the Gulf.
"America has lost the predictability of friends like Mubarak," said
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Sami+Alfaraj%22> Sami Alfaraj, director of
the
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Kuwait+Center+for+Strategic+Studies%22>
Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies. "But, at the same time, its allies in
the Gulf are on the rise. So I would call it a shuffle for America. Maybe a
step back in some places, but not in others."
Led by hyper-wealthy Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the Gulf rulers have stepped up
their games in various ways as the region's political center of gravity
drifts in their direction.
NATO's airstrikes in Libya got important Arab credibility from warplane
contributions by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The Gulf's six-nation
political bloc also has tried to negotiate an exit for Yemen's
protest-battered president,
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Ali+Abdullah+Saleh%22> Ali Abdullah Saleh,
and has taken the lead in Arab pressures on Syria's
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Bashar+Assad%22> Bashar Assad, one of Iran's
most crucial partners.
Yet the Gulf rulers' desire for change stops at their own borders. In March,
they authorized a Saudi-led military force to help their neighbor, Bahrain,
defend its 200-year-old unelected Sunni dynasty against pro-reform protests
by the island's Shiite majority.
And here lies one of the paradoxes for U.S. statecraft in the Middle East:
to align with rulers who are firmly vested in the status quo, but not be
cast as the spoilers of the Arab uprisings.
"No one is immune from the waves of change," said
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Nicholas+Burns%22> Nicholas Burns, a former
No. 3 official at the State Department. "There's certainly an effort to
advise the Gulf Arabs to continue to get on the side of reform."
Burns believes the Arab Spring has taught U.S. diplomats valuable lessons in
patience and perspective.
"We are witnessing something that is transformative and whose full impact
will play out over years, maybe decades, ahead," said Burns, a professor of
diplomacy and international politics at Harvard's
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Kennedy+School+of+Government%22> Kennedy
School of Government. "Here is one of those times when the U.S. has to not
overact and overreact."
But when events move fast, that may not be the easiest advice to follow.
Mubarak was a loyal guardian of Egypt's groundbreaking 1979 peace treaty
with Israel, and there is no certainty that whoever succeeds him will do
likewise. Meanwhile, the Palestinians have overridden U.S. objections and
asked the
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22U.N.%22> U.N. for statehood.
"Our ability to influence is limited today more than at any time in the last
35 years," said
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Graeme+Bannerman%22> Graeme Bannerman, a
former State Department analyst on Mideast affairs, at a conference in
November co-sponsored by the
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22United+States+Institute+of+Peace%22> United
States Institute of Peace.
That assessment may have some traction in places such as in Tunisia or
Egypt, where the U.S. is widely viewed as tainted by its long alliance with
Mubarak.
But ask about America's pull in other Mideast points - the free-spending
Gulf, the new proto-state in Libya, even slow-healing Iraq and its
Iran-friendly government - and the conversation is different. It is more
measured about how the U.S. fits into the new Mideast. There is more talk
about the arc of history rather than the latest sound bite.
"It's too early to tell whether U.S. influence has diminished or indeed any
change will happen because the Arab Spring is still in process," said
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Nawaf+Tell%22> Nawaf Tell, former director of
the
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22University+of+Jordan+Strategic+Studies+Center
%22> University of Jordan Strategic Studies Center.
Tell sees the Arab Spring as the death rattle of the Arab revolutions and
coups defined by the all-powerful state and embodied by winner-take-all
leaders: Egypt's
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Gamal+Abdel-Nasser%22> Gamal Abdel-Nasser
(1954), Libya's
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Moammar+Gadhafi%22> Moammar Gadhafi (1969),
the 1970 putsch in Syria that brought
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Hafez+Assad%22> Hafez Assad to power in Syria
and now a dynasty-in-peril under his son, Bashar, and so on.
"These regimes have exhausted their revolutionary credibility and have seen
their legitimacy go bankrupt," Tell said. And as with any big unraveling,
there are new rules in the aftermath."
This may mean a less privileged position for U.S. interests and more legwork
for Washington's envoys, said
<http://www.seattlepi.com/?controllerName=search&action=search&channel=news&
search=1&inlineLink=1&query=%22Morris+Reid%22> Morris Reid, managing
director of the Washington-based BGR Group, which works often in liaison
roles between Mideast officials and U.S. companies.
The U.S. approach to the region "will be better," he said. "Not necessarily
stronger."
"The U.S. will have to work harder for intelligence, diplomatic relations,
commercial deals," said Reid after meetings in mid-November at the Dubai
Airshow, where Boeing Co. made a slew of deals including a record $18
billion order from the fast-growing air carrier Emirates. "The U.S. will now
have to prove their value as allies."
A showcase for that in the coming year is likely to be Iraq, and the contest
for influence between neighboring Iran and the U.S. after U.S. military
forces are gone. That rivalry in turn is influenced by events in Syria,
Iran's main Arab ally, and the concerns of emirates and sheikdoms that lie
just across the Persian Gulf from Iran.
"Look at it this way: If you accept that the Arab Spring is a once in a
four- or five-generations moment, then, of course, it will reorder the
entire game of influence and politics by the big powers," said Salman
Shaikh, director of The Brookings Doha Center in Qatar.
"U.S. leadership does matter," he continued. "It's naive to say it will
become irrelevant. But it's also wrong not to notice that America's era as
the region's diplomatic superpower is coming to an end. The Arab Spring has
brought much more independent-minded diplomacy by nations and a new
empowerment among Arab people. America is a big player, but no longer Big
Brother."
___
Associated Press writer Dale Gavlak in Amman, Jordan, contributed to this
report.
Read more:
<http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Arab-uprisings-reshape-map-of-US-infl
uence-2395444.php#ixzz1gFeWqNNn>
http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Arab-uprisings-reshape-map-of-US-influ
ence-2395444.php#ixzz1gFeWqNNn
* FILE - In this Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011 file photo, a Yemeni protestor
holds a dagger and chants slogans during a demonstration demanding the
prosecution of President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sanaa, Yemen. The case is
often made that Washington was caught flatfooted by the Arab Spring and now
must adapt to diminished influence in the Middle East. But declaring a
twilight for America in the Mideast ignores a big caveat: The deep U.S.
connections in the Persian Gulf have so far ridden out the upheavals and are
increasingly flexing their political clout around the Arab world. Photo:
Hani Mohammed / AP
FILE - In this Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011 file photo, a Yemeni protestor holds a
dagger and chants slogans during a demonstration demanding the prosecution
of President Ali Abdullah Saleh in Sanaa, Yemen. The case is often made that
Washington was caught flatfooted by the Arab Spring and now must adapt to
diminished influence in the Middle East. But declaring a twilight for
America in the Mideast ignores a big caveat: The deep U.S. connections in
the Persian Gulf have so far ridden out the upheavals and are increasingly
flexing their political clout around the Arab world. Photo: Hani Mohammed /
AP
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