NAIROBI Feb 7 (Reuters) - The International Criminal Court (ICC) last month
indicted Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta for crimes against humanity during
violence that followed a disputed election in 2007. Kenyatta resigned from
his cabinet post as a result, but he insisted he will run for president, a
move that has divided the east African country.
The ICC's decision could affect the outcome of general elections due by
March 2013 at the latest, a date that is itself a subject of controversy.
All this comes at a time when Kenya is mired in a potentially protracted war
against al Qaeda-linked militants in neighbouring Somalia and the economy is
straining under the twin loads of high inflation and interest rates.
Here are some of the risk factors ahead:
ICC DECISION
The 50-year-old Kenyatta, the son of Kenya's founding father Jomo Kenyatta,
with a fortune estimated by Forbes magazine at half a billion dollars, has
caused a political storm over his unbowed quest to become president despite
the indictment.
Analysts had predicted Kenyatta's chances would be seriously damaged if he
was indicted, but he was one step ahead of the game by forging an alliance
with another presidential hopeful who was also charged by the ICC, former
cabinet minister William Ruto.
The coalition government, parliament and the public in general are divided
over Kenyatta and Ruto's candidacy. Close allies of the two say Kenyatta is
likely to be the alliance's flag-bearer.
Rights groups want the High Court to stop the duo from taking part in the
race to replace President Mwai Kibaki.
The High Court ruled on Feb. 2 that public discussion of whether Kenyatta
and Ruto can run for presidency is banned until the court determines whether
the ICC charges disqualifies them. But the two have continued holding
political rallies to promote their presidential challenge.
Kenyatta, a member of the Kikuyu tribe, and Ruto, a Kelenjin, were charged
by The Hague war crimes court with mobilising youths from their respective
ethnic groups to kill each other after the poll. The two say they are
innocent, and are appealing against the ICC charges.
They are now united in their bid to block their political nemesis, Prime
Minister Raila Odinga, from becoming president.
Odinga's lead in opinion polls in the race to the country's helm has been
slipping, while Kenyatta's ratings are rising.
Analysts say political ideology counts for little in Kenya, where tribal
alliances are the stepping stones to high office.
What to watch:
- Will the Kenyan High Court bar Kenyatta and Ruto? If so, there would no
doubt be appeals and a protracted legal battle ending up at the Supreme
Court.
- Are Kenyatta and Ruto going to keep on promoting their presidential
ambitions despite the gag order by the court?
- Has the confirmation of the charges against them by the ICC given them a
boost or dented their chances? For the time being, it appears to have
rallied support among their ethnic power bases.
- Kenyatta, Ruto and the two other accused have lodged appeals against the
court's ruling. Will the ICC agree to hear their appeals and would they
eventually be successful?
- If they stand trial, it could be impractical for them to do so over a
period of months and still run for office. They may have to decide to back
someone else. Who would that be, and what criteria would they base their
decision on?
- The ICC did not issue arrest warrants, but said it would if the suspects
break certain conditions, including engaging in hate speech that could fan
tribal tensions.
- Despite Kenya being an ICC signatory, it has been very critical of the war
crimes court and supportive of the Sudanese president avoiding an ICC arrest
warrant. Will Nairobi continue cooperating with the ICC if the appeals by
the suspects fail?
- Failure to cooperate with the ICC would concern foreign investors and
Western governments who want Kenya to combat impunity ahead of the next
elections.
- The government says it will ask the ICC to transfer the cases back to
Nairobi where it plans to try the crimes against humanity. Could this affect
Kenya's cooperation with the ICC?
- Kenyatta quit his cabinet post but refused to step down as one of the
country's two deputy prime ministers, saying he can only do so if parliament
forces him out through a vote of no confidence. Will parliament call his
bluff?
ELECTION DATE
The High Court caught many Kenyans off-guard when it ruled on Jan. 13 that
the next general elections should be held in March 2013 and not this August,
unless the ruling coalition collapsed, forcing a poll within 60 days.
The decision disappointed many Kenyans who want to vote out their
legislators sooner, and has created anxiety over whether the coalition will
stick together or not. Opinion polls show a majority still favour elections
this year and the ruling essentially puts the ball in Kibaki and Odinga's
court.
Prior to the court's ruling, the government had proposed to postpone the
vote to December to give the authority charged with organising the polls
more time to prepare. The delay would require a constitutional amendment.
On Feb. 3, Justice Minister Mutula Kilonzo said he would still try to push
for the December date, with an amendment bill due to be voted on this month.
Any constitutional change requires parliament approval.
Kilonzo's proposal has been divisive among legislators, and has been
dismissed by the commission for implementation of the constitution, which
wants the elections held next March.
On Feb. 4, Odinga said at a political rally that he wants elections to be
held this year. Kibaki is barred by law from contesting a third term.
What to watch:
- It is not clear if Kibaki is ready to dissolve the coalition government
this year as per Odinga's wishes, which could potentially usher in another
political tug-of-war.
- Or will Odinga ignite the coalition's collapse so that elections can be
held at a time that could favour him?
- Will the amendment bill be debated and passed, and how much opposition or
controversy could this cause?
SOMALIA
Kenya sent troops into Somalia last October to crush al Shabaab, accusing
the militant network of attacks on its security forces and tourists inside
Kenya. For now, the incursion still has wide backing among Kenyans.
What to watch:
- Kenya says the mission is open-ended and it will stay until al Shabaab's
network is dismantled. But this could take time and may require additional
budget support.
- Any attacks by al Shabaab in the capital or key tourist sites might erode
backing for the incursion, deter tourists and hurt the economy. (Editing by
David Clarke and Alessandra Rizzo)
C Thomson Reuters 2012 All rights reserved
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Received on Tue Feb 07 2012 - 17:23:27 EST
