<
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/28/israel_s_secret_staging_gr
ound> Israel's Secret Staging Ground
U.S. officials believe that the Israelis have gained access to airbases in
Azerbaijan. Does this bring them one step closer to a war with Iran?
BY MARK PERRY | MARCH 29, 2012
In 2009, the deputy chief of mission of the U.S. embassy in Baku, Donald Lu,
sent <
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09BAKU20.html> a cable to the
State Department's headquarters in Foggy Bottom titled "Azerbaijan's
discreet symbiosis with Israel." The memo, later released by WikiLeaks,
quotes Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev as describing his country's
relationship with the Jewish state as an iceberg: "nine-tenths of it is
below the surface."
Why does it matter? Because Azerbaijan is strategically located on Iran's
northern border and, according to several high-level sources I've spoken
with inside the U.S. government, Obama administration officials now believe
that the "submerged" aspect of the Israeli-Azerbaijani alliance -- the
security cooperation between the two countries -- is heightening the risks
of an Israeli strike on Iran.
In particular, four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers say
that the United States has concluded that Israel has recently been granted
access to airbases on Iran's northern border. To do what, exactly, is not
clear. "The Israelis have bought an airfield," a senior administration
official told me in early February, "and the airfield is called Azerbaijan."
Senior U.S. intelligence officials are increasingly concerned that Israel's
military expansion into Azerbaijan complicates U.S. efforts to dampen
Israeli-Iranian tensions, according to the sources. Military planners, I was
told, must now plan not only for a war scenario that includes the Persian
Gulf -- but one that could include the Caucasus. The burgeoning
Israel-Azerbaijan relationship has also become a flashpoint in both
countries' relationship with Turkey, a regional heavyweight that fears the
economic and political fallout of a war with Iran. Turkey's most senior
government officials have raised their concerns with their U.S.
counterparts, as well as with the Azeris, the sources said.
The Israeli embassy in Washington, the Israel Defense Forces, and the
Mossad, Israel's national intelligence agency, were all contacted for
comment on this story but did not respond.
The Azeri embassy to the United States also did not respond to requests for
information regarding Azerbaijan's security agreements with Israel. During a
recent visit to Tehran, however, Azerbaijan's defense minister publicly
<
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9012152197> ruled out the use
of Azerbaijan for a strike on Iran. "The Republic of Azerbaijan, like always
in the past, will never permit any country to take advantage of its land, or
air, against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which we consider our brother and
friend country," he said. (Following the publication of this article, an
Azeri spokesman
<
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hJLzHAW0uT7Mhc7awqWEzAk3
9FRg?docId=CNG.5bba548bbefdc22a21bbb7b6c36d505a.6a1> denied that his
government had granted Israel access to Azeri airbases.)
But even if his government makes good on that promise, it could still
provide Israel with essential support. A U.S. military intelligence officer
noted that Azeri defense minister did not explicitly bar Israeli bombers
from landing in the country after a strike. Nor did he rule out the basing
of Israeli search-and-rescue units in the country. Proffering such landing
rights -- and mounting search and rescue operations closer to Iran -- would
make an Israeli attack on Iran easier.
"We're watching what Iran does closely," one of the U.S. sources, an
intelligence officer engaged in assessing the ramifications of a prospective
Israeli attack confirmed. "But we're now watching what Israel is doing in
Azerbaijan. And we're not happy about it."
Israel's deepening relationship with the Baku government was
<
http://news.yahoo.com/israel-inks-1-6-billion-arms-deal-azerbaijan-15064754
7.html> cemented in February by a $1.6 billion arms agreement that provides
Azerbaijan with sophisticated drones and missile-defense systems. At the
same time, Baku's ties with Tehran have frayed: Iran presented a note to
Azerbaijan's ambassador last month claiming that Baku has supported
Israeli-trained assassination squads targeting Iranian scientists, an
accusation the Azeri government <
http://en.apa.az/news.php?id=165559>
called "a slander." In February, a member of Yeni Azerbadzhan -- the ruling
party -- <
http://en.trend.az/news/politics/1986820.html> called on the
government to change the country's name to "North Azerbaijan," implicitly
suggesting that the 16 million Azeris who live in northern Iran ("South
Azerbaijan") are in need of liberation.
And this month, Baku <
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17368576>
announced that 22 people had been arrested for spying on behalf of Iran,
charging they had been tasked by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to
"commit terrorist acts against the U.S., Israeli, and other Western states'
embassies." The allegations prompted
<
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/PrintNews.aspx?PageID=383&NID=16301>
multiple angry denials from the Iranian government.
It's clear why the Israelis prize their ties to Azerbaijan -- and why the
Iranians are infuriated by them. The Azeri military has four abandoned,
Soviet-era airfields that would potentially be available to the Israelis, as
well as four airbases for their own aircraft, according to the International
Institute for Strategic Studies'
<
http://www.iiss.org/publications/military-balance/the-military-balance-2011
/press-statement/> Military Balance 2011.
The U.S. intelligence and diplomatic officials told me they believe that
Israel has gained access to these airbases through a series of quiet
political and military understandings. "I doubt that there's actually
anything in writing," added a senior retired American diplomat who spent his
career in the region. "But I don't think there's any doubt -- if Israeli
jets want to land in Azerbaijan after an attack, they'd probably be allowed
to do so. Israel is deeply embedded in Azerbaijan, and has been for the last
two decades."
The prospect of Israel using Azerbaijan's airfields for an Iranian attack
first became public in December 2006, when retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Oded
Tira <
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3346275,00.html> angrily
denounced the George W. Bush administration's lack of action on the Iranian
nuclear program. "For our part," he wrote in a widely cited commentary, "we
should also coordinate with Azerbaijan the use of airbases in its territory
and also enlist the support of the Azeri minority in Iran." The
"coordination" that Tira spoke of is now a reality, the U.S. sources told
me.
Access to such airfields is important for Israel, because it would mean that
Israeli F-15I and F-16I fighter-bombers would not have to refuel midflight
during a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, but could simply continue
north and land in Azerbaijan. Defense analyst David Isenberg describes the
ability to use Azeri airfields as "a significant asset" to any Israel
strike, calculating that the 2,200-mile trip from Israel to Iran and back
again would stretch Israel's warplanes to their limits. "Even if they added
extra fuel tanks, they'd be running on fumes," Isenberg told me, "so being
allowed access to Azeri airfields would be crucial."
Former CENTCOM commander Gen. Joe Hoar simplified Israel's calculations:
"They save themselves 800 miles of fuel," he told me in a recent telephone
interview. "That doesn't guarantee that Israel will attack Iran, but it
certainly makes it more doable."
Using airbases in Azerbaijan would ensure that Israel would not have to rely
on its modest fleet of air refuelers or on its refueling expertise, which a
senior U.S. military intelligence officer described as "pretty minimal."
Military planners have monitored Israeli refueling exercises, he added, and
are not impressed. "They're just not very good at it."
Retired Air Force Col. Sam Gardiner, who conducted
<
http://www.foi.se/FOI/Templates/NewsPage____9027.aspx> a study for a think
tank affiliated with the Swedish Ministry of Defense of likely Israeli
attack scenarios in March 2010, said that Israel is capable of using its
fleet of F-15I and F-16I warplanes in a strike on Iran without refueling
after the initial top-off over Israel. "It's not weight that's a problem,"
he said, "but the numbers of weapons that are mounted on each aircraft." Put
simply, the more distance a fighter-bomber is required to travel, the more
fuel it will need and the fewer weapons it can carry. Shortening the
distance adds firepower, and enhances the chances for a successful strike.
"The problem is the F-15s," Gardiner said, "who would go in as fighters to
protect the F-16 bombers and stay over the target." In the likely event that
Iran scrambled its fighters to intercept the Israeli jets, he continued, the
F-15s would be used to engage them. "Those F-15s would burn up fuel over the
target, and would need to land."
Could they land in Azerbaijan? "Well, it would have to be low profile,
because of political sensitivities, so that means it would have to be
outside of Baku and it would have to be highly developed." Azerbaijan has
such a place: the
<
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&q=sital+chay+azerbaijan&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ei=
F4twT_iaG4LV0QHP9KzdBg&sa=X&oi=mode_link&ct=mode&cd=3&ved=0CAwQ_AUoAg>
Sitalcay airstrip, which is located just over 40 miles northwest of Baku and
340 miles from the Iranian border. Prior to the collapse of the Soviet
Union, Sitalcay's two tarmacs and the adjacent facilities were used by a
squadron of Soviet Sukhoi SU-25 jets -- perfect for Israeli fighters and
bombers. "Well then," Gardiner said, after the site was described to him,
"that would be the place."
Even if Israeli jets did not land in Azerbaijan, access to Azeri airfields
holds a number of advantages for the Israel Defense Forces. The airfields
not only have facilities to service fighter-bombers, but a senior U.S.
military intelligence officer said that Israel would likely base helicopter
rescue units there in the days just prior to a strike for possible search
and rescue missions.
This officer pointed to a July 2010
<
http://www.jpost.com/International/Article.aspx?id=182803> joint
Israeli-Romanian exercise that tested Israeli air capabilities in
mountainous areas -- like those the Israeli Air Force would face during a
bombing mission against Iranian nuclear facilities that the Iranians have
buried deep into mountainsides. U.S. military officers watched the exercises
closely, not least because they objected to the large number of Israeli
fighters operating from airbases of a NATO-member country, but also because
100 Israeli fighters overflew Greece as a part of a simulation of an attack
on Iran. The Israelis eventually curtailed their Romanian military
activities when the United States expressed discomfort with practicing the
bombing of Iran from a NATO country, according to this senior military
intelligence officer.
This same senior U.S. military intelligence officer speculated that the
search and rescue component of those operations will be transferred to
Azerbaijan -- "if they haven't been already." He added that Israel could
also use Azerbaijan as a base for Israeli drones, either as part of a
follow-on attack against Iran, or to mount aerial assessment missions in an
attack's aftermath.
Azerbaijan clearly profits from its deepening relationship with Israel. The
Jewish state is the second largest customer for Azeri oil - shipped through
the Baku-Tibilisi-Ceyhan pipeline -- and its military trade allows
Azerbaijan to upgrade its military after the Organization for Cooperation
and Security in Europe (OSCE) slapped it with an arms embargo after its
six-year undeclared war with Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh
region. Finally, modernizing the Azeri military sends a clear signal to Iran
that interference in Azerbaijan could be costly.
"Azerbaijan has worries of its own," said Alexander Murinson, an
Israeli-American scholar who wrote in
<
http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/perspectives110.html> an influential
monograph on Israeli-Azeri ties for Tel Aviv's Begin-Sadat Center for
Strategic Studies. "The Baku government has expelled Iranians preaching in
their mosques, broken up pro-Iranian terrorist groups, and countered Iranian
propaganda efforts among its population."
The deepening Azeri-Israeli relationship has also escalated Israel's dispute
with Turkey, which began when Israeli commandos boarded a Turkish ship
destined for Gaza in May 2010, killing nine Turkish citizens. When Turkey
demanded an apology, Israel not only refused, it abruptly canceled a $150
million contract to develop and manufacture drones with the Turkish military
-- then
<
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Azeris_get_Israel_UAVs_built_under_license_
999.html> entered negotiations with Azerbaijan to jointly manufacture 60
Israeli drones of varying types. The $1.6 billion arms agreement between
Israel and Azerbaijan also left Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
"sputtering in rage," according to a retired U.S. diplomat.
The centerpiece of the recent arms deal is Azerbaijan's acquisition of
Israeli drones, which has only heightened Turkish anxieties further. In
November 2011, the Turkish government retrieved the wreckage of an Israeli
"Heron" drone in the Mediterranean, south of the city of Adana -- well
inside its maritime borders. Erdogan's government believed the drone's
flight had originated in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq and demanded
that Israel provide an explanation, but got none. "They lied; they told us
the drone didn't belong to them," a former Turkish official told me last
month. "But it had their markings."
Israel began cultivating strong relations with Baku in 1994, when Israeli
telecommunications firm Bezeq bought a large share of the nationally
controlled telephone operating system. By 1995, Azerbaijan's marketplace was
awash with Israeli goods: "Strauss ice cream, cell phones produced by
Motorola's Israeli division, Maccabee beer, and other Israeli imports are
ubiquitous," an Israeli reporter
<
http://www.meforum.org/987/israel-and-azerbaijans-furtive-embrace> wrote in
the Jerusalem Post.
In March 1996, then-Health Minister Ephraim Sneh became the first senior
Israeli official to visit Baku -- but not the last. Benjamin Netanyahu made
the trip in 1997, a high-level Knesset delegation in 1998, Deputy Prime
Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in 2007, Israeli
President Shimon Peres in 2009, and Lieberman again, as foreign minister,
this last February. Accompanying Peres on his visit to Baku was
<
http://www.commonspace.eu/eng/blogs/15/author8/id85> Avi Leumi,
<
http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=474&ArticleID=449> the CEO of
Israel's Aeronautics Defense Systems and a former Mossad official who paved
the way for the drone agreement.
U.S. intelligence officials began to take Israel's courtship of Azerbaijan
seriously in 2001, one of the senior U.S. military intelligence officers
said. In 2001, Israeli arms manufacturer Elbit Systems contracted with
Georgia's Tbilisi Aerospace Manufacturing to upgrade the Soviet SU-25
Scorpion, a close air-support fighter, and one of its first customers was
Azerbaijan. More recently, Israel's Elta Systems has cooperated with
Azerbaijan in building the TecSar reconnaissance satellite system and, in
2009, the two countries began negotiations over Azeri production of the
Namer infantry fighting vehicle.
Israeli firms "built and guard the fence around Baku's international
airport, monitor and help protect Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure, and
even provide security for Azerbaijan's president on foreign visits,"
according to
<
http://www.meforum.org/987/israel-and-azerbaijans-furtive-embrace> a study
published by Ilya Bourtman in the Middle East Journal. Bourtman noted that
Azerbaijan shares intelligence data on Iran with Israel, while Murinson
<
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2287> raised the
possibility that Israelis have set up electronic listening stations along
Azerbaijan's Iranian border.
Israeli officials downplay their military cooperation with Baku, pointing
out that Azerbaijan is one of the few Muslim nations that makes Israelis
feel welcome. "I think that in the Caucasian region, Azerbaijan is an icon
of progress and modernity," Sneh told an Azeri magazine in July 2010.
Many would beg to differ with that description. Sneh's claim "is laughable,"
the retired American diplomat said. "Azerbaijan is a thuggish family-run
kleptocracy and one of the most corrupt regimes in the world." The U.S.
embassy in Baku has also been scathing: A 2009 State Department cable
described Aliyev, the son of the country's longtime ruler and former KGB
general Heydar Aliyev, as a "mafia-like" figure, comparable to "Godfather"
characters Sonny and Michael Corleone. On domestic issues in particular, the
cable warned that Aliyev's policies had become "increasingly authoritarian
and hostile to diversity of political views."
But the U.S. military is less concerned with Israel's business interests in
Baku, which are well-known, than it is with how and if Israel will employ
its influence in Azerbaijan, should its leaders decide to strike Iran's
nuclear facilities. The cable goes on to confirm that Israel is focused on
Azerbaijan as a military ally -- "Israel's main goal is to preserve
Azerbaijan as an ally against Iran, a platform for reconnaissance of that
country and as a market for military hardware."
It is precisely what is not known about the relationship that keeps U.S.
military planners up at night. One former CIA analyst doubted that Israel
will launch an attack from Azerbaijan, describing it as "just too chancy,
politically." However, he didn't rule out Israel's use of Azeri airfields to
mount what he calls "follow-on or recovery operations." He then added: "Of
course, if they do that, it widens the conflict, and complicates it. It's
extremely dangerous."
One of the senior U.S. military officers familiar with U.S. war plans is not
as circumspect. "We are studying every option, every variable, and every
factor in a possible Israeli strike," he told me. Does that include Israel's
use of Azerbaijan as a platform from which to launch a strike -- or to
recover Israeli aircraft following one? There was only a moment's
hesitation. "I think I've answered the question," he said.
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Received on Thu Mar 29 2012 - 17:00:52 EDT
