From: Berhan Sium (eretrawi@yahoo.com)
Date: Fri Jun 19 2009 - 06:58:36 EDT
Sam,
Thanks for the forward. I thought the YouTube piece was very well put together, in a way that connected the dots -- or linked the digital images, in this case -- to make a strong case for the final conclusion. Yes, the destabilization program against Iran has been afoot for quite sometime, and what we are witnessing now is the culmination of years of covert and overt operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. We ought to watch this event very closely and study the modus operandi of Ma.We.S.
I just forwarded to Dehai a very astute observation of the recent upheaval in Iran by Patrick Cockbrun, one of the few remaining Western journalists with integrity and objectivity. Incidentally, Patrick is also the brother of Alexander Cockburn, CounterPunch's editor, another good source on the web for alternative and credible news and analysis these days.
While the propagandsitas at CNN and FOX are salivating about Iran's cyber-revolution and imminent collapse, the reality check as per Patrick Cockburn's insightful analysis in the Independent is the more likely scenario that will unfold in the coming week. The Islamic Republic will emerge stronger, and perhaps this attempt at regime change will expose all its internal enemies that it can deal with in one fell swoop, and stand to negotiate with the Western powers from a position of strength. Its nuclear program will proceed with full speed, while it consolidates relations with Russia and China, as well as regional countries -- especially Shia-dominated Iraq, and nuclear power Pakistan, that has been bleeding profusely from US interference. The biggest loser from this failed coup in Tehran will, of course, be the US client regimes in the Middle Ease -- Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Yes, indeed, it's more likely that a major realignment of forces is in the cards for the Middle East. And all this as a result of "Blowback" -- CIA dirty deeds having a boomerang effect and coming back to haunt America in unforeseen ways. Talk about $400 million and years of destabilization efforts going down the drain. The blowback from this one may even be more devastating to long-term US interests than the one from Operation Ajax back in 1953.
Berhan
--- On Thu, 6/18/09, Sam B <menkemaki@hotmail.com> wrote:
> From: Sam B <menkemaki@hotmail.com>
> Subject: Re: [DEHAI] Check out this "nonviolent script for Iran" written in Washington 6 years ago!
> To: "dehai" <dehai@dehai.org>, "Berhan Sium" <eretrawi@yahoo.com>
> Date: Thursday, June 18, 2009, 5:58 PM
>
>
>
> #yiv1293576732 .hmmessage P
> {
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> #yiv1293576732 {
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>
>
>
>
> Berhan
> check this video
> out
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRwUZ-u6KFo
> and also these two year old
> articles
>
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1552784/Bush-sanctions-black-ops-against-Iran.html
>
> http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/05/bush_authorizes.html
>
>
>
> SAM
> Blog Page
> http://www.natna.blogspot.com
>
> None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who
> falsely believe they are free.
> ~Johann Wolfgang
> von Goethe
>
>
> On Thu, Jun 18, 2009 at 3:13 PM,
> Berhan Sium <eretrawi@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> Selam Dehai,
>
> This article written almost exactly 6 years ago to the date
> sounds like the script for "Operation Ajax II".
> And what the hell is "Operation Ajax"? inquiring
> Dehaiers may ask. Well, for that you will have to read the
> book by Stephen Kinzer titled "ALL THE SHAH'S
> MEN" to find out :-)
>
> But check out this paragraph in the article below:
>
> <<Serbian dissidents were given working capital --
> money for supplies, communications, and, most important,
> training in strategic nonviolent struggle. Iranians have the
> resources but not the know-how -- which should not come from
> the CIA or Defense Department, but rather from pro-democracy
> programs throughout the West.>>
>
> And which exactly would those "pro-democracy
> programs" outfits be? National Endowment for Democracy
> [NED]? Reporters Sans Frontier [RSF]? The International
> Center on Nonviolent Conflict?
>
> More importantly, what are the lessons to be learned here
> for us Eritreans?
>
> Berhan
>
>
> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++++++++
>
> The nonviolent script for Iran
>
> By Peter Ackerman and Jack DuVall
>
> from the July 22, 2003 edition -
> http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/
> 0722/p09s01-coop.html
>
>
> WASHINGTON - Renewed student-led protests in Tehran should
> expedite the debate in Washington about Iran. Two questions
> are being asked: Can protests produce regime change, and
> what kind of external support would help?
>
> The history of civilian-based movements, like the one now
> gestating in Iran, shows that agitation in the streets is
> not enough to topple a government. If US assistance merely
> adds fuel to the existing fire, and internal opposition is
> not based on weakening the real sources of the regime's
> power, neither will work.
>
> The "people power" revolution in the Philippines,
> the coalition that ousted Pinochet in Chile, South
> Africa's anti-apartheid movement, and civilian movements
> that felled communist regimes in Poland and Eastern Europe
> all had common strategic features. They were deliberately
> nonviolent, proudly indigenous, unified on the basis of
> practical goals, and dispersed across the map and class
> lines of the country - and they co-opted the military.
> [Editor's note: Due to an editing error, the original
> version of this opinion piece inaccurately referred to the
> "people power" revolution in the Philippines as
> the "Filipinos' power revolution."]
>
> Successful civilian-based struggle makes a country
> ungovernable through strikes, boycotts, civil disobedience,
> and other nonviolent tactics - in addition to mass protests
> - crumbling a government's pillars of support. This is
> possible in Iran. Three times in the past four years, the
> regime's outrageous actions have provoked unrest. A
> majority of the parliament has threatened to walk out. A
> former Iranian chief justice says that many Revolutionary
> Guards favor change, and some have even protected students
> against attacks by pro-regime vigilantes.
>
> Events in Iran are reminiscent of Serbia just before a
> student-sparked movement removed Slobodan Milosevic. His
> regime had alienated not only students but most of the
> middle class, which the dismal economy had shattered. The
> political class was also split, with many tired of the
> dictator. Seeing their opportunity, the opposition moved to
> divide the regime from its sources of power.
>
> First, they subordinated lesser objectives to the paramount
> goal of ousting Mr. Milosevic. In Iran, the antiregime
> movement should demand specific reforms, such as ending the
> clerics' veto on parliamentary laws and appointments,
> which would neutralize the mullahs' power.
>
> Second, the Serbs ignored the temptation of going for broke
> with premature demonstrations in the capital and instead
> organized in neighborhoods and towns around the country,
> giving ordinary people low-risk ways to join in. Iranians
> should do the same.
>
> Third, the Serbian police and military were persuaded that
> they weren't seen as the enemy - that their support was
> welcome. To do that, the opposition had to maintain strict
> nonviolent discipline.
>
> Nothing jeopardizes a movement more than mixing violent
> with nonviolent tactics. Street-fighting will not help
> Iranian protesters enlarge their ranks. Attacking the
> military will not persuade them to defect - they will shoot
> back, shifting the contest to terms favoring the regime.
>
> When a million Serbs marched on Belgrade in October 2000,
> Milosevic ordered crowds dispersed, with bullets if
> necessary. But no shots were fired because soldiers saw that
> he could no longer control the people. In days he was out.
>
> President Bush has rightly endorsed the desire for real
> democracy espoused by most Iranians. Other world leaders
> should follow his example. But the Bush administration
> should resist proposals to foment a general upheaval that
> could turn violent, because that would only justify more
> repression.
>
> While outside factors have never been decisive in making a
> regime implode, well-focused aid for a nonviolent campaign
> reinforces a sound, homegrown strategy.
>
> Serbian dissidents were given working capital -- money for
> supplies, communications, and, most important, training in
> strategic nonviolent struggle. Iranians have the resources
> but not the know-how -- which should not come from the CIA
> or Defense Department, but rather from pro-democracy
> programs throughout the West.
>
> Cheerleading from Washington is not a policy. It makes
> Iranian protesters appear to be doing America's bidding,
> and covert support for violent action would undercut their
> legitimacy. What's needed is a more strategic resistance
> by the Iranian opposition, unified behind clear political
> goals, backed by broader civilian participation, using
> tactics that divide the clerics and their military
> defenders. The Iranian people have the drive, the
> intelligence, and the capability to make such a strategy
> work - and that is what the world's democracies should
> assist.
>
>
> ============================== ===
>
> • Peter Ackerman is executive producer of the Peabody
> award-winning documentary, 'Bringing Down a
> Dictator' and chairman of the board of overseers of the
> Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Jack DuVall is
> coauthor of 'A Force More Powerful: A Century of
> Nonviolent Conflict' and director of the International
> Center on Nonviolent
> Conflict.
> Windows
> Live helps you keep up with all your friends, in one
> place.
>