From: wolda002@umn.edu
Date: Mon Jan 05 2009 - 00:11:32 EST
Hardliners play well to electorate but history shows that the rockets keep
on coming
Former head of Mossad says talking to the enemy is the only answer
* Chris McGreal in Jerusalem
* The Guardian, Monday 5 January 2009
Israel has been here before - and the failure of its strategy in the past
is why its soldiers are back in Gaza.
As tanks and troops once again carve up the Gaza Strip, Israel is talking
of "applying pressure" to force Hamas to agree to another, more durable
ceasefire on Israel's terms and of "dismantling the infrastructure of
terror" to prevent the Islamist group from launching rockets into the
Jewish state. The assault will "punish" not only Hamas but Gazans who, the
Israelis argue, will then put pressure on the Islamist party to behave.
The invaders are following a well-worn military and political blueprint
that has guided numerous Israeli incursions over recent years. But after
each invasion, the rocket fire resumed - it was even continuing yesterday
as Israeli troops rolled through Gaza, with Hamas still firmly in control.
Israel says it will continue the assault until Hamas bows to its central
demands to end the rocket attacks, to disarm, and to release the soldier it
captured in 2006, Gilad Shalit.
Yossi Alpher, a former adviser on peace negotiations to the then prime
minister, Ehud Barak, supports military action, but questions whether
Israel's strategy will be any more successful now than previously. "I'm
concerned because the logic of this operation is if we hurt them hard
enough they will agree to a new ceasefire on terms acceptable to us," he
said. "The way for them to foil this strategy is for them simply to refuse
to accept a ceasefire on terms acceptable to us, no matter how much pain
we're inflicting. This is a movement which glories in martyrdom and
victimhood."
A Hamas condition for a ceasefire is that Israel lift its three-year
blockade of Gaza that has helped wreck the economy and left many of its 1.5
million residents hungry, poor and trapped.
The former head of the Mossad intelligence service, Ephraim Halevy, argues
that ultimately it may be in Israel's interest to negotiate with Hamas if
it helps to curb Hamas's political influence.
Alpher agrees that Israel should talk to Hamas. "Hamas doesn't want to talk
to us ... just as Hezbollah doesn't want to talk to us, they don't
recognise us. But as a strategic approach to Hamas, the offer to talk and
recognise is another viable option which we have not taken."
But there is an election looming in Israel - with, until now, the
disastrous 2006 invasion of Lebanon as its main backdrop - that is expected
to return the hardline Binyamin Netanyahu for a second stint as prime
minister.
Netanyahu says that not only will he not talk to Hamas, but that the
present military operation should be expanded to wipe it out of existence.
That is also just about the only political strategy he can use to keep his
Likud party to the fore as his principal opponents, the foreign minister
and Kadima party leader, Tzipi Livni, and defence minister and Labour
leader, Ehud Barak, ride the wave of public support for the war. Barak in
particular is drawing the political benefit of being the defence minister
in charge. A week ago, opinion polls showed his Labour party winning just
11 knesset seats in the 10 February election. The latest survey gives it 16
seats. Livni and Netanyahu are neck and neck with 28 seats. Until now,
Likud has appeared the more likely to be able to put together a governing
coalition of parties even further to the right. But if Labour's fortunes
continue to rise, Barak and Livni have a fighting chance of putting
together a new administration.
Much will depend on how the war goes. Nearly 80% of Israelis "very much
support" the week-long air attack on Gaza, with less than 4% opposed.
However, opinion is more evenly divided over the ground assault, with only
42% of Israelis backing it. Nearly 40% said the military action should be
restricted to attacks from the air.
Those numbers suggest that a large number of dead soldiers or the failure
to stop the Hamas rocket fire could see Barak's support slump again.
Netanyahu will be waiting in the wings to press his case to dismantle
Hamas. He is unlikely to be able to do it, but he will certainly win
support on the right by trying.
The parties
Kadima The senior partner in the governing coalition. Tzipi Livni, left,
the foreign minister, became leader after the prime minister, Ehud Olmert,
was forced out over a corruption scandal. Livni has lost ground to Labour
in the opinion polls since the attack on Gaza
Labour Its leader, Ehud Barak, left, has benefited from being defence
minister and the political face of the assault on Gaza. His determination
has increased support for his party. Polls predict it will win 16 seats in
the 120-seat Knesset next month, up from 11 a week ago
Likud Its leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, left, is tipped to form a coalition
after the election. Likud supports the attack on Gaza and Netanyahu wants
to remove Hamas from power. His party is neck and neck with Kadima, with
the polls giving it 28 seats in the new Knesset