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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Jan 12 2010 - 12:56:59 EST
Forgotten crises to watch in 2010
12 Jan 2010 11:46:00 GMT
Written by: AlertNet correspondent
An Ethiopian woman holds her malnourished child in a hospital in the eastern
region of Ogaden which borders Somalia, Jan. 16, 2006. REUTERS/Andrew
Heavens
An Ethiopian woman holds her malnourished child in a hospital in the eastern
region of Ogaden which borders Somalia, Jan. 16, 2006. REUTERS/Andrew
Heavens
LONDON (AlertNet) - Amid frequent headlines about conflict-ridden Somalia,
Afghanistan and Sudan, it is easy to overlook less well publicised
emergencies in other parts the world. Yet some of these forgotten crises are
likely to intensify in 2010, aggravating human suffering.
Here is a selection of some of the under-reported humanitarian emergencies
at risk of deteriorating this year. The list is by no means exhaustive nor
is it any kind of ranking.
THAILAND'S RESTIVE SOUTH
Drive-by shootings, a gun battle and three bomb blasts have ushered in
another year of a violent and intractable - yet little-reported - conflict
in Thailand's three southernmost provinces, where Muslim insurgents are
fighting for autonomy in the predominantly Buddhist country.
Since violence flared up in early 2004, close to 4,000 people - most of them
civilians of both faiths - have died in the provinces, just a few hours'
drive from Thailand's popular beaches.
The number of attacks increased in 2009, unabated by martial law and an
emergency decree which has in fact fuelled abuses by security forces,
analysts say. Violence, such as last year's deadly raid on a mosque during
evening prayers, has become more brutal and bomb-making more advanced, the
International Crisis Group said in a recent report.
"For nearly six years, no security officials involved in human rights abuses
have faced criminal prosecution," the group added.
Observers see no solution to the crisis in the near future, especially in
the light of protracted political instability in the country, and expect
relations between Buddhists and Muslims in Thailand to deteriorate,
propelling the conflict.
<http://members.alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/TH_INS.htm> More background
VIOLENCE IN THE PHILIPPINE MINDANAO
A push by the Philippines government and the country's biggest Muslim rebel
group <http://members.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/KLR84117.htm> to sign a
deal by April to end four decades of conflict is unlikely to bring immediate
peace to the Mindanao region where feuding clans, rampant corruption and
easy access to arms have also fuelled a cycle of violence and displacement.
Violence is likely to rise in the resource-rich southern island ahead of
presidential, parliamentary and local elections in May - as prominent clans,
backed in some cases by civilian militia, vie for some of the 17,500 local
positions up for grabs, observers say.
The outlook, therefore, for hundreds of thousands of people displaced by
violence in Mindanao is still precarious. Aid workers say that since peace
talks resumed last month, the government has started closing some evacuation
centres, moving displaced to areas that lack water, sanitation and proper
shelter. They say the government is keen to show it has a handle on the
situation and has delivered some results from the drawn-out peace process.
The Inter-Agency Standing Committee, grouping U.N. agencies and
international aid groups, said in its November 2009 to February 2010 outlook
that the conflict in Mindanao would continue to lead to high levels of
hunger and malnutrition with more than 1 million people needing food aid. It
said continued humanitarian assistance would be required for more than
230,000 internally displaced and members of host communities.
<http://members.alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/PH_SEP.htm> More background
FOOD SHORTAGES IN NEPAL
In 2010 millions of people in Nepal are likely to face serious food
shortages as a result of poor harvests last year, high food prices and
political turmoil, aid workers say.
The impoverished Himalayan nation is emerging from a decade-long civil war
between government forces and Maoist rebels that killed 16,000 people and
devastated the economy. The conflict ended in 2006 but the number of people
at risk of hunger has tripled since then to more than 3.7 million.
Sustained high food prices, erratic monsoons and a 400,000-tonne cereal
deficit have already forced poor families in the Mid- and Far-Western
Regions of the country to skip meals, borrow money and sell off assets in
order to survive.
Political turmoil - played out in almost daily strikes by former Maoist
rebels - often paralyses parts of the country, blocking roads and preventing
supplies reaching areas where food is scarce or stopping people getting to
markets.
Aid workers say the crisis is a "silent emergency" where most of those
threatened by hunger are poor or landless farming communities in remote,
inaccessible areas. They warn that the number of people living with hunger
is likely to rise further this year.
"With prices for food staples like lentils and potatoes more than 60 to 100
percent higher than 18 months ago and a lack of economic opportunities,
household food stocks in many areas are dwindling," the Office of the U.N.
Humanitarian Coordinator (OCHA) in Nepal said in a statement.
<http://members.alertnet.org/db/topics/HUNGER.htm> More background
INDIA'S MAOIST REBELLION
In India, tens of thousands of tribesmen and women living in areas occupied
by Maoist rebels in central and eastern parts of the country are likely to
face increased persecution and violence as security forces step up an
assault against the rebels.
The insurgency, waged mostly from dense forest areas, has increased
dramatically since early 2005 leaving tens of thousands of villagers
displaced and hundreds killed, tortured or persecuted by both sides.
The leftist guerrillas, who say they represent the poor and landless and
want to build a Communist state, are accused of forcibly recruiting
children, of widespread extortion and of using landmines and improvised
explosive devices.
But rights groups say there are also "widespread abuses" by
government-backed vigilantes and security forces, who in previous
anti-Maoist drives, have conducted arbitrary arrests, torture and killings.
In late 2009, security forces began "Operation Green Hunt" - a targeted
offensive against the leftist guerrillas in states such as West Bengal and
Chhattisgarh. As this offensive gets fully underway in 2010 and a security
assault spreads to other Maoist-occupied states, arbitrary arrests,
persecution and increased violence against women are all likely, analysts
and activists say.
"The Maoist insurgency and the government counter-insurgency efforts can
place civilians at serious risk if there is escalation of violence," said
Meenakshi Ganguly, senior researcher for Human Rights Watch.
<http://members.alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/IN_MAO.htm> More background
HUNGER IN GUATEMALA
Guatemala is struggling to feed its citizens. It is a country with the
fourth-highest child malnutrition rate in the world and almost half of its
children chronically malnourished.
The crisis shows little signs of abating in 2010. A prolonged severe drought
caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon, rising unemployment and persistent
high food prices, combined with a decline in money sent by Guatemalans
working abroad, mean that more people in the country are likely to face
hunger this year.
"The continuing fall in remittances means many families are not receiving
the $100 to $200 dollars they used to receive every month, which is an
important factor affecting the amount of food the poorest families have,"
said Alejandro Lopez, a spokesman for the World Food Programme (WFP).
The situation is "critical" in the worst-affected area known as the dry
corridor of Guatemala bordering Honduras and El Salvador, the European
Commission humanitarian aid department said in a recent statement.
Around 2.5 million Guatemalans are at high or very high risk of running out
of food, according to government figures. Aid agencies warn this figure
could rise if harvests fail this year.
Families living in impoverished rural farming communities, already
struggling to feed their children, face a knock-on effect from the previous
poor harvests.
"The last harvests were very poor with some farmers losing up to 90 percent
of their production. This means thousands of families don't have food
stocks, a buffer, or any back-up to see them through to the next harvests in
May," said WFP's Lopez.
"If the next harvests fail, then people will face even worse food shortages
and a very difficult situation indeed."
<http://members.alertnet.org/db/an_art/59877/2009/09/15-135212-1.htm> More
background
OGADEN CRISIS IN ETHIOPIA
The humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia's Ogaden region is worsening, yet the
Ethiopian government continues to deny aid agencies access. Ogaden is mainly
populated by Muslim Somali-speakers. The area does most of its trade with
Somaliland, Somalia and the Middle East, rather than the rest of Ethiopia.
Formed in 1984 amid a resurgence of separatist sentiment in the Ogaden
region, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) is rebelling against the
central government in a sporadic armed conflict. The true picture of the
humanitarian crisis in Ogaden is faint but according to Amnesty
International's 2009 report, both government forces and ONLF fighters
perpetrated human rights abuses against civilians.
Last year's drought destroyed crops and pastures, and water became scarce
for the mainly pastoral communities there.
"The aid community in Ethiopia is deeply concerned (by) the denial of access
to the people affected by the conflict and the worst drought in the region,"
said an aid worker who declined to be named. The aid worker said the Ogaden
crisis is not only forgotten but "hidden by the government".
Analysts say Ogaden's fate is tied with the situation in neighbouring
Somalia, largely controlled by Islamist and extremist rebels, and Eritrea's
border dispute with Ethiopia - both crises that seem far from over.
<http://alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/ET_OGA.htm> More background
MALNUTRITION IN WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICA
High malnutrition rates in West and Central Africa will likely worsen in
2010 due to drought, poverty and poor nutrition policies, aid agencies say.
They say late and insufficient rainfall in West Africa's Sahel belt may lead
to food shortages, which would increase hunger in Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali,
Niger, Mauritania and northern Nigeria.
"We may not have situations in which whole countries are hit but we shall
face sharp (food) crises in specific parts," said Herve Ludovic de Lys, who
heads the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in
West Africa.
The U.N. Children's Fund UNICEF estimates that in West and Central Africa,
6.6 million children under five suffer from life-threatening acute
malnutrition and 23.9 million from chronic malnutrition which stunts growth.
"We have areas in West Africa with high rates of malnutrition although they
are actually bread baskets," de Lys said.
<http://alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/WA_HUN.htm> More background
CONFLICT IN CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
The humanitarian outlook for conflict-ridden Central African Republic (CAR)
in 2010 is bleak but the country will continue to struggle to get the
attention that its troubled neighbours receive, relief organisations say.
Armed groups freely cross CAR's borders from Chad, the Democratic Republic
of Congo and Sudan.
Fighting is likely to continue between the Ugandan Lord's Resistance Army
(LRA) rebels and Ugandan Special Forces charged with hunting them down on
CAR's soil.
Parliamentary and presidential elections set for this year could lead to
more violence over ethnicity and politics. Relief workers are also finding
it increasingly difficult to access people affected by the conflict and have
become targets themselves.
"The recent kidnapping of two aid workers in the east of the country (last
November) will further restrict the areas where humanitarian workers can or
are prepared to work," Muriel Cornelis, of the European Commission's
humanitarian aid department (ECHO), said on the organisation's website.
CAR's economy has been further weakened by the global financial crisis,
which has contributed to a decline in humanitarian assistance. This could
undermine any collective response to CAR's needs, with potentially
catastrophic consequences for the population this year, a United Nations
report said.
"CAR remains comparatively neglected on the international agenda, receiving
less funding per head than any country in the region," said Nick Willson,
the Regional Programmes Manager for Central Africa at medical relief
organisation Merlin.
"Countries in crisis, such as CAR, need adequate levels of sustained support
from donors and international stakeholders," he added.
<http://alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/CA_FLO.htm> More background
CHAD'S WILD EAST
The security situation for aid workers in Chad's volatile northeast could
worsen in 2010. The number of attacks on humanitarians in the area doubled
last year, according to the U.N. humanitarian affairs agency (OCHA).
Two Medecins Sans Frontieres workers were kidnapped and released in 2009
while an employee of the International Committee of the Red Cross and Red
Crescent Societies (ICRC) remains hostage. Aid groups and security analysts
fear kidnappings could become a trend.
Security will be stepped up with the arrival of additional troops for the
U.N. Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT).
Some relief agencies, however, believe the extra troops will be insufficient
since bandits also target escorted convoys. In December, they opened fire on
a U.N. protected convoy and injured an officer of the local U.N. trained
police force.
With parliamentary elections due in November and presidential elections
planned for early 2011, some humanitarians fear an onslaught by rebels. The
last major rebel incursion was in February 2008 when rebels nearly took over
the capital N'Djamena and caused over 30,000 people to flee across the
border into Cameroon.
"We all think there is going to be a rebel attack in the next few months,"
an aid worker who did not want to be named told AlertNet.
Spillover from the conflicts in Darfur and the Central African Republic
(CAR), armed opposition to the Chadian government, inter-communal and
inter-ethnic tensions all contribute to the insecurity.
Banditry also flourishes, thanks to the availability of weapons from
renegade rebels. Aid work is vital to provide relief to tens of thousands of
Sudanese refugees and internally displaced Chadians.
<http://alertnet.org/db/crisisprofiles/TD_REB.htm> More background
