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From: amirhalay@aol.com
Date: Wed Mar 24 2010 - 12:39:20 EST
5-63557 Somalia Report
5-63557
03/22/10 14:54:59
03:45
DATE=03/22/10
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SOMALIA BRUTON
NUMBER=5-63557
BYLINE=TEWELDE TESFAGABIR
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
HEADLINE: CFR Report Argues United States Should Pursue New Approach to Somalia
INTRO: A new Council on Foreign Relations report calls for the U.Sgovernment to pursue a policy of constructive disengagement in Somaliaand recommends the international community to adopt a position ofneutrality, and to abandon efforts to pick a winner in the war-torncountry. VOA`s Horn of Africa reporter Tewelde Tesfagabir spoke with the author of the report.
TEXT: The report, "Somalia: A new Approach", sponsored by the Councilon Foreign Relations says the odds of Somalia's Transitional FederalGovernment emerging as an effective body are "extremely poor."
Report author Bronwyn Bruton maintains the current U.S approach iscounterproductive and it is encouraging some Somalis to radicalize.
/// BRUTON ACT 1 ///
"Although the TFG in Mogadishu has got some very good people in it, andit has certainly managed to win the hearts and minds of some Somalis,the odds that it will emerge as an effective institution with thecritical mass of supporters is very unlikely. If the U.S and thebroader international community continues to back the TFG as one sideover others, it will perpetuate a military stalemate and this will bevery costly to the U.S because it is hurting the Somalia`s populationand it is encouraging some Somalis to radicalize."
/// END ACT ///
The report says that the United States should work with United Nationsand African Union to promote reform of Somalia's TFG structures toallow it to become a more inclusive governing mechanism.
Bruton believes it is necessary for the United States to make a finalpush to try to turn the Transitional Federal Government into aninstitution that can eventually govern Somalia, and suggested the useof a presidential model in a country fractured along clan lines shouldbe abandoned.
/// BRUTON ACT 2 ///
"In my opinion a presidential model is not a very good model forSomalia. Because there are a lot of different factions, and I do notreally see any credible national leaders, and I do not think Somaliahad credible leaders for 30 or 40 years. So, what I would recommend ishaving a technocratic prime minster consisting of a council of leadersincluding Sheik Sharif."
/// END ACT ///
At a recent briefing U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Johnnie Carsondenied recent media reports the United States is leading militaryefforts to help Somalia's government. He said, "There is no desire toAmericanize the conflict in Somalia."
/// REST OPTIONAL ///
In her interview with VOA, Bruton welcomed his comment.
/// BRUTON ACT 3 ///
"I was very gland when Ambassador Carson came out and made thisstatement, because I think the Somali people need to hear that. It isexactly the right approach to not want to Americanize the conflict. Andthe U.S should continue to make that point."
/// END ACT ///
Bruton says, the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea poses more danger to the regional instability than the Somali conflict.
/// BRUTON ACT 4 ///
"In a certain way, the conflict of Somalia is tied up in the conflictbetween Eritrea and Ethiopia. Most analysts agree that Eritrea does notreally have a stake in Somali conflict, does not have a reason to backal-Shabab over TFG. Eritrea wants to be a bother to Ethiopia, and forthat reason Eritrea has allegedly been providing arms to al-Shabab andHisbul Islam. As to the sanctions on Eritrea, I think diplomaticsolutions are what are going to be required here."
/// END ACT ///
Bronwyn Bruton says Eritrea also needs to come around to take a moreconstructive approach to its neighbors. She says the internationalcommunity has got to find a way to assist Ethiopia and Eritrea inresolving their dispute and the United States should dissuade Ethiopiafrom any military action in Somalia in response to possible events inMogadishu. (SIGNED)
NEB/TT/RAE/KBK