From: tsegai emmanuel (tsegai_40@yahoo.com)
Date: Thu Jul 02 2009 - 21:13:58 EDT
Intelligence Guidance: Week of July 5, 2009
Stratfor Today » July 2, 2009 | 2028 GMT
DMITRY ASTAKHOV/AFP/Getty Images
Russian President Dmitri Medvedev visiting a Russian shipyard July 2
Editor’s Note: The following is an internal STRATFOR document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
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1. The U.S.-Russian summit: U.S. President Barack Obama will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on July 6-8. This summit will set the geopolitical agenda between the countries for the second half of the year. It all boils down to whether the two can establish a quid pro quo, trading U.S. recognition of Russia’s rise for Russian assistance in Washington’s conflicts in the Islamic world. The summit itself may be difficult to get information out of in real time, but there will be a host of meetings immediately afterward — including Putin’s meetings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the G-8 summit — that will disseminate the results.
2. Russia and the United States at the G-8 summit: The G-8 will meet in L’Aquila, Italy, from July 8-10. As noted above, this is where we will see the first public outcomes of the U.S.-Russian summit, so we should not have to do too much reading between the lines. If Russia softens its line and the United States hardens its line on Iran, it means there is some sort of deal. If the two clash as normal, it means the summit ended in failure. If the two do clash, then Obama’s bilateral meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao during the G-8 summit will be worthy of particular scrutiny, since a U.S.-Russian stalemate would give China the opportunity to be a swing player.
3. Other players at the G-8 summit: This G-8 summit will include a number of other states invited for consultations, but there are two in particular worth watching closely. First, Angola is making its debut. It is a rising regional power that has taken advantage of internal South African squabbles to stake a claim to regional leadership. The second is South Africa, whose delegation is headed by freshman President Jacob Zuma. We need to get in touch with both governments to see how they are adapting to their new roles.
4. Waziristan and Afghanistan: The war for public opinion in Pakistan is in full swing, with the Pakistani military trying to keep its war with Islamist militants in the country’s northwest as limited as possible while the militants try to pull the military in multiple directions. Simultaneously, U.S. Marines in Afghanistan, where Gen. Stanley McChrystal recently assumed command, are launching their largest operation since 2004 under a new strategy that seeks to build confidence among the locals rather than simply root out militants. Independently, the two events are of critical importance to Pakistan’s future and the U.S. war effort. Collectively, they represent the biggest effort since the Afghan war began to change the environment in which the militants thrive.
5. Honduras: Both ousted President Manuel Zelaya and his ousters — who make up the bulk of Honduras’ governing institutions — are publicly itching for a fight. Zelaya is planning to return home to retake power this weekend, and the interim president is threatening to arrest him upon arrival. Top officials from Ecuador, Venezuela and Argentina — including at least two presidents — plan to personally escort Zelaya home; their active participation holds the possibility that this otherwise minor issue could explode in everyone’s faces. We do not need a lot of intelligence here (aside from determining how popular — or not — Zelaya is with the general population), but we need to be watching just in case things go horribly awry.
EURASIA
July 5: Bulgaria will hold parliamentary elections.
July 6: Russian troops will complete the weeklong “Caucasus 2009” military exercise in the North Caucasus region.
July 6-7: Greek Cypriot President Demetris Christofias will visit Armenia to meet with Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian.
July 6-8: U.S. President Barack Obama will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The agenda will include a possible agreement on a new strategic arms control treaty, talks on shipping military cargo to Afghanistan through Russian territory, and the plans for missile defense in Europe.
July 8-10: The G-8 summit takes place in L’Aquila, Italy. The first day of meetings will focus on the global financial crisis, the use of stimulus packages, and potential governance for the world economy. During the second day, the G-8 will include Brazil, India, China, Mexico, South Africa and Egypt to discuss the financial crisis, trade and climate change. This will also mark the first time the summit will produce a joint G-8 and G-14 statement. Nine African countries will join the summit on the final day to take part in talks concerning aid to Africa and climate change.
July 9-10: French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is expected to travel to Lebanon and Syria for an official visit.
July 10: U.S. President Barack Obama will visit Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican.
MIDDLE EAST/SOUTH ASIA
July 1-4: Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama is in China to speak on the situation in Sri Lanka following the end of the conflict with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Bogollagama is to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, Vice President Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Li Keqiang.
July 1-4: Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigme Thinley is in India to hold talks with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, External Affairs Minister S. M. Krishna, Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Bharatiya Janata Party leader L. K. Advani.
July 5: Saudi King Abdullah will visit Syria to hold talks with Syrian President Bashar al Assad on developments in the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Iraq, and on improving ties among Middle East countries.
EAST ASIA
July 2-5: Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna will visit Japan for the third Japan-India Strategic Dialogue. He will meet with Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone.
July 2-10: Chinese Vice Foreign Minister and top nuclear negotiator Wu Dawei will visit Russia, the United States, Japan and South Korea. On the trip, he will discuss the North Korean nuclear issue as well as the broader security situation in Northeast Asia.
July 5-11: Chinese President Hu Jintao will attend the second day of the G-8 summit in L’Aquila, Italy, on July 9 as one of the so-called G-5 emerging economies. On the sidelines of the summit, Hu will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama. He will also pay official visits to Italy and Portugal, meeting with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano and Portuguese President Anibal Antonio Cavaco Silva.
July 6: Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou will stop in Hawaii on his way back to Taiwan after a diplomatic tour of Central American countries that officially recognize Taiwan.
July 7-10: Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso will participate in the G-8 summit in L’Aquila, Italy. Before the summit, on July 7, Aso will visit the Vatican for a meeting with Pope Benedict XVI. Aso reportedly might call an election between the summit and the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections scheduled for July 12.
July 7-10: South Korean President Lee Myung Bak will attend the G-8 outreach summit as part of the Major Economies Forum. Before the summit, from July 7-8, he will visit Poland to meet with Polish President Lech Kaczynski and Prime Minister Donald Tusk on ways to promote economic and diplomatic ties.
July 8: Indonesia will hold presidential elections.
July 11-14: South Korean President Lee Myung Bak will visit Sweden, where he will meet with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and King Carl XVI Gustaf.
LATIN AMERICA
July 4: A 72-hour ultimatum passed by the Organization of American States (OAS) for Honduras to reinstate recently ousted President Manuel Zelaya will expire.
July 5: Mexico will hold legislative elections.
July 6: The Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) summit will be held in Vina del Mar, Chile.
July 7-8: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will meet with Chilean President Michelle Bachelet in Chile. The visit, originally scheduled for May 17-18, has been postponed two times thus far and will take place after Chavez’s appearance at the UNASUR summit July 6.
July 7-9: A Peruvian indigenous group has called for a 72-hour national strike beginning July 7 among Peru’s Amazon population, as well as a demonstration in Lima on July 8.
July 9: The Brazilian Senate will convene for the final public debate on whether to admit Venezuela into Mercosur, a regional trade group consisting of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. It will be the fourth such debate by the body, which will vote on the issue in the coming weeks.
AFRICA
July 5: Liberian Vice President Joseph Nyuma Boakai will visit Beijing, where he will meet with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping and other officials.
July 8-10: The leaders of Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa will attend the G-8 summit in Italy.
July 10-11: U.S. President Barack Obama will visit Ghana.