From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sat Oct 10 2009 - 05:50:26 EDT
Personal account of the current situation in Ethiopia
Anonymous from Addis Ababa, 10 October 2009.
http://ethioforum.org/wp/archives/1440#more-1440
_____
The following is a personal observation and impression of the political and
economic situation in Ethiopia. It is not a research-based analysis. It is
an account of what I observed, heard, and thought about during my recent
short visit to Ethiopia. Take is for what it is worth. . Anonymous from
Addis Ababa, 10 October 2009.
Any keen visitor to Ethiopia will immediately observe how helplessly that
country is languishing under Woyane's tyrannical rule. No surprises here,
one might say, but seeing is more powerful than hearing about it. This is my
third visit to Ethiopia in the last seven years. The social, political and
economic situation in the country has gotten worse over this time period
contrary to what the Woyane trumpeters want us to believe.
The Woyane cadres inside and outside the country talk ad nauseam about the
astounding development achieved under the Woyane rule. Don't believe a thing
of it. These are either mercenary liars or delusional. The much bragged
about infrastructure development is anything but impressive. There is some
road construction for sure. And for some one who hasn't seen much in their
lives, even the little is a lot. It is the perception that is hoodwinked.
Even some of the people I talked to in Ethiopian tend to compare the little
with the nothing and betray a slight sign of contentment. But, I asked, why
compare the little with the nothing? Why not compare the little with what
could have been had?
All sane Ethiopians agree the Derg was one of the worst regimes in Ethiopian
history. However, by comparison, Derg has done more in terms of
infrastructure and developmental investment. Especially when one takes into
account the non-peaceful period of the Derg regime and the dearth of
developmental aid Derg received from international donors. By contrast the
Woyane regime has enjoyed a much more peaceful period, has received tens of
billions of dollars in aid money and has the advantages of learning from the
mistakes of previous regimes.
Building and house construction is happening feverishly throughout the
country, particularly in Addis and some major provincial capitals. The
Diaspora Ethiopians are in the game of rush for land. At face value this
might be seen as a welcomed development. However, the abject lack of
infrastructure that is supposed to go with new residential construction
(road, sewage, etc) aside, I have an eerie feeling that a lot of shoddy
construction work is going on without proper planning and inspection that
most of the newly constructed buildings will be the woes of tomorrow.
Actually the complaint regarding the sub-standard work is happening today.
Take condominiums that are being built throughout the city. In many cases
water does not reach the third floor and above; doors don't close; washrooms
don't flush water; cracks appear on walls and floors just completed, big
enough for rats to go up and down from one floor to the next. In many
apartment or condominium complexes dripping water is a major problem. If you
are taking a shower on the third floor, don't assume all of the water is
going down the drain. It is draining all right, but some of it is draining
down to the floor below you, i.e, you are giving the folks below you an
involuntary shower. Builders are after quick profits and dwellers in
over-congested Addis are after a roof over their heads. Who would be
concerned about quality control and the like? Certainly, Woyane is not.
A minority rich is getting richer while the poor are getting poorer by the
day. Inflation is galloping the whole gamut of goods and services with no
reins in sight. The shortage of electricity power has crippled the weak
economy. Factories were closing doors or were functioning way under capacity
when I was there. Nobody knew when the rationing would end so that residents
and businesses would get electric power whenever they wanted it. No official
felt a sense of duty to explain to the people what was being planned and
what was being done to resolve the situation. People are used to live in the
dark half of the month. Yet their electricity bills have gone up. According
to the economics Meles learnt by correspondence and for which he claims to
have earned a Masters degree, this made perfect economics sense: supply and
demand is the name. Electricity supply is in shortage and demand is going
up, so should price to equalize demand to supply. Meles says "don't blame
me; if you want to blame anyone, blame your poverty that has shortchanged
you on the supply side." It took Ethiopia three thousand years to crop up
this kind of leader.
Do you want to register your complaints by calling the Electricity and Power
Agency? Good luck. For a starter, you have no guarantee that your cell phone
will connect to any other phone. The probability is 50 percent. That is
true. Any time of the day in any day of the week, the probability that your
cell phone will connect you to another human being is 50 percent. The name
of the problem is network. Call a person sitting beside you, everyone in
Ethiopia would bet with you that there is a 50% chance that you will get an
automatic network message that the number you called is outside of the
service area. Your cell phone works only if the door of the house you are in
is open or you are calling from the front end of the house; the network is
too sensitive to all these things.
Denbissa Moyo, the Zambian economist who wrote a book about "dead aid"
talked about the low level of cell phone penetration in Ethiopia which at 2%
is perhaps one of, if not the lowest, in Africa for which the average
penetration rate is 30%. At a 50% probability that your cell phone is
functional at any attempt to connect, the effective penetration rate of cell
phones in Ethiopia is 1%. I have not talked about how expensive it is to own
and use a cell phone in Ethiopia. Many, perhaps the majority, of the people
who own a cell phone do perhaps have no landlines. For these folks, their
cell phones are the only means of communication, which means that if they
have to keep up with their social and business networks they will have to
use them quite frequently. To give you an idea of the price tag for cell
phone cards, a 100 birr prepaid card has "kept me connected" only for a
length of one hour, 90 minutes at most. If you call a landline phone you
would be finished in less than half of this time.
It is not just the cell phones though that have problems. Even the landlines
in many parts of the country are malfunctional many days of the month. What
does all this have to do with Woyane? Well, this entity is what has
constricted the telecommunication sector. If Woyane had opened up this
sector for private business and free competition, the network quality would
have improved and prices would have declined greatly. Everywhere state
control has given way to private business these two outcomes have invariably
resulted.
What about the double-digit economic growth the country has achieved year
after year under the Woyane rule? First of all, you cannot trust the
statistics put out by Woyane, because these are pathological liars. Don't
also trust the numbers put out by international organizations, such as the
World Bank. After all every raw data they cut, paste and manipulate comes
from the central statistics office of Ethiopia. Where else can they get them
from? The World Bank or the IMF or the various departments of the United
Nations don't have data collecting agencies in Ethiopia. Besides, these
organizations have to say positive things to convince donors and financiers
that their programs are working. The data supplied by all poor countries are
helplessly flawed. For example in Ethiopia, we know that there is no any way
or means of accounting to measure economic outputs throughout the country.
Even if one were gullible enough to take the economic growth numbers spewed
by Woyane at face value, as somebody has debunked them on one of the
websites, they do not account for inflation, one of the highest in Africa.
Meles' response to inflation is to say it a sign of a healthy economy. Of
course it must be so for a half-baked economist. Even common sense tells you
that inflation is bad news to business and savings. At the minimum, one has
to know the source of the inflation. If the source is an enhanced economic
activity, meaning, increased investment, consumption and government
expenditure, yes it is a sign of a growing economy - worrisome all the same,
but a positive sign nonetheless. However, if the inflation is caused by
higher cost of inputs or supply shortages or unbridled printing of money,
then it is a sign of a sick economy. In Ethiopia the money supply has gone
through the roof. The economy is not generating much by way of new value.
Money enters the country through various channels: aid and remittance in
particular. These foreign sourced monies have to be converted into domestic
currencies at the going exchange rate. Normally, one would expect the value
of the Birr to go up. It is doing the opposite because Woyane's night shift
must be busy printing new paper money. All of which result in too much paper
money chasing too few goods and services the economy generates each year.
Naturally this shoots the price level through the roof. This is inflation
101.
Agriculture, which still is the backbone of the nation's economy, is still
as primitive as it was centuries ago and every year the nation comes to the
brink of starvation - 9 million for the coming year. When I was in Ethiopia
reports from around the country were that the major harvest season was a
complete write-off. In a country where there is no irrigated agriculture
worthy of mention, no rain means no agricultural production. But a lack of
rain should not necessarily lead to starvation if the rest of the economic
sectors were doing well and generating employment and income. Food security
is not a production problem; it is an income problem. The meagr industrial
activity has been hampered - indeed incapacitated - by the ongoing rationing
of electricity. Many factory shops are closed down. Unemployment has
continued to climb. The fake sectors - those who don't add new value to the
economy, i.e., those in one way or another are connected to aid and
"developmental" money only absorb a bit of the well connected or those with
a college degree. The rest - the high school graduates, the dropouts, those
who migrate from the villages - join the ever-swelling pool of the
chronically unemployed.
The chronically unemployed have turned into professional thieves. Thievery
has become so commonplace and pretty open. Even in small towns and villages,
people don't leave their houses without someone staying behind. Fantastic
stories we heard about thievery in Lagos or Nairobi are now being played out
in Addis. People cannot park their cars outside and get into a house for a
coffee unless they have someone watching over their cars. Nobody is doing
anything about it.
Private hospitals and clinics are mushrooming everywhere. They are the new
business with the highest profit and investment turnover. The public health
care system is in shambles giving way to greedy medical businesses. So
medical expenses are so sky high that people have to sell anything and
everything they own to get treatment. Still the sick are growing in number
and death rates don't seem to be abating. Preventive efforts and measures
are as rudimentary as they always have been throughout the country. Typhus,
typhoid, malaria, TB, you name it, are all rising not declining.
Addis is full of dirt and stench. This is a good measure of how low the
morale of both the people and the government has stooped. Men and boys
urinate most anywhere and whenever they have the urge - that is in front of
dwellings, restaurants and shops, on the tire of taxis, by the Church sides,
in front of Mosques, in Merkato, Piassa, Arat Kilo, you name it. It is as if
that city has no city council. What is more depressing is no one cares.
Politics:
We heard recently that Meles Zenawi is not after all going to resign. You
have read how the "news" was presented: Meles and other high-ranking EPRDF
officials will be required to resign in the next five years. So the news was
given a negative twist, i.e., putting a timetable, sort of, for Meles and
his thug friends to step down. The news didn't say EPRDF denied Meles his
request for resignation. The reason has to be that Woyane is scared of
public reaction. They know how much the Ethiopian people love to see Meles
go. So in their elementary way, they are trying to assuage the Ethiopian
people by promising them that their desire will come to pass a few years
down the road.
How this "news" was communicated is of small consequence on the ground. We
all knew all along that Meles would not resign. Why should he? He is a brute
dictator and, like all dictators, he would like to stay in power forever. A
former Canadian Prime minister has once said that those who should hold a
leadership position in government should be the ones for whom this position
is their second best choice or something to that effect. Such individuals
would not cling to power if they feel they are not wanted and/or feel they
are not adding value. They will readily leave office to go back to their
first best choice. At 54, Meles' first best and only job choice is staying
in power. In other words, once out of power, he is good virtually for
nothing remotely comparable to his current position.
And don't forget that, like all dictators who have committed horrendous
crimes against their people, Meles is fearful of what legal actions awaits
him once he is out of office and power is transferred to a legitimately and
democratically elected government. Under his watch and most likely direct
personal orders, in recent years alone close to 200 innocent demonstrators
and by-standers have been killed following the last general election. That
is a crime committed in broad daylight - a noose dangling around Meles'
neck. Loose for now but will get tighter once he is out of the Menelik
Palace.
It is not just Meles who wants to stay as leader of the Woyane party. His
party and colleagues-in-crime need him where he is now for their own
sustenance. They know there is no one to replace him. They know the other
party and government officials around him are either nameless, faceless
opportunists or common hooligans like Berket Simon. Remove Meles, then
Woyane is a house of cards that will crumple at the slightest breeze. They
are almost sure that with Meles at the helm they will have at least a few
more years to pelage that poor country.
But, one should ask, why should it matter whether Meles stayed on as leader
of the Woyane party? Is it a foregone conclusion that Woyane will stay in
power for another term or more? A yes answer should fundamentally worry
every freedom yearning Ethiopian.
The Woyane government seems to have realized that none of its gimmicks are
working - economic, social, political. Nothing is working. They are scared
too. Trust me, what these thugs feel inside and the bravado they show on TV
are not the same thing. They haven't forgotten the near-death experience of
four years ago. You know their insecurity when you observe what they are
doing to overcome it. I was told, in Addis the police patrols and disbands
any group of three, four or five if they are standing and talking. You would
remember this practice started right after the 2005 election.
Another example is that currently, the Woyane government is making all civil
servants and higher institution students EPRDF members. It does so through
cajoling, blackmailing and direct orders. Almost no one says no because
everyone else is saying ok. Almost everyone who told me that they are
registered members of EPRDF have told me that they have nothing but detest
for the regime and that their membership is nominal to allow them get a job
or keep their jobs if they have one. What does this mean when they go to the
ballot box next year? They reminded me of what happened in the last
election. They say even the soldiers who were instructed by Woyane to
register in some Addis ridings such as the riding of Genet Zewdie, former
education minister, didn't vote for her.
We have heard of the alleged coup. Almost everyone I talked to don't trust
Woyane's story. Most see it as another paranoid action by Meles and his
cronies to lock up a select group of high ranking military officers. People
say the objective was to weed out non-Tigrian officers, particularly those
of the Amhara origin, from the military. Be that as it may, history has
proven time and again that no dictator has saved his ass by the sheer
support of the military.
You may wonder, the opposition is in shambles, the Ethiopian people are in
resignation; so what should the Woyane be afraid of?
It is true the opposition is very weak by all measures. Yes most Ethiopians
seem to be giving up. The fact is however the weakness of the opposition
does not make Woyane stronger. It could make it look stronger but by no
means makes it stronger. This is a fundamental reality which no one should
lose sight of. Woyane, like all repressive, undemocratic and unjust systems
before it, is getting weaker by the day because of its own internal
dynamics. A government stays in power when things are going for it. Woyane
has traded deceptions and pretensions for goodwill and aid from the
international community for nearly two decades. For all the hoopla and hype,
eighteen years later, Woyane has absolutely nothing to show.
Woyane will never again relent its repressive, unjust and undemocratic
actions and risk another "fair" election. So it is hampering every small
movement of the opposition. It is close to claiming a one-party rule. The
reason is simple. At least ninety nine point nine percent of the Ethiopian
people don't like, hell hate, Woyane. A regime cannot stay in power when
these many people hate it. Even in Tigray where Woyane had historically
enjoyed uncontested support, the reality has changed dramatically in the
last few years.
Eighteen long years later the Woyane propaganda machine is still at work
belaboring the unconvincing. Opportunistic acolytes of the regime of various
ethnic stripes appear on TV every now and then to talk at length how great
life has become in their respective jurisdictions. Shamelessness has
conquered all boundaries in the traditionally God-fearing country. Funny
enough the propaganda target is the Derg regime. True to script, these
opportunistic and parasitic elements uniformly confess how social, economic,
governance and political situations have improved in comparison to previous
systems. This in itself tells you that things are not going well even by
Woyane standards. Otherwise, why should the regime waste some much airtime
comparing itself to a regime it uprooted 18 years ago?
When Woyane took power, its trademark political gimmickry was ethnicism. It
has not resolved any ethnic problem. On the contrary, it has created new
ones and there is more ethnic friction and tension in the country now than
when Woyane took power.
The Opposition:
Who and what will sustain Woyane for the foreseeable future? The answer is
the Opposition parties. Woyane is the worst scourge Ethiopia has yet to
produce. But, you know what, the opposition sucks. It really does. I know
this is not a politically correct statement, but truth has to be told. The
opposition can complain ad infinitum about Woyane's repression,
intimidation, harassment, etc., which is all absolutely true, but in the end
complaining is not what is going to get them where they want to get. They
have to have their acts together. The ball is their quarter. They don't seem
to see it. They still think it is in Woyane's quarter. Sad.
Woyane could be removed from power in the next election. I truly believe
that. As I said 99.9% of the Ethiopian people would like and pray to see
Woyane go to the dustbin of history. Woyane has outlived its potential and
its luck. However, the Opposition is in a sad state. It is in a
self-inflicted comatose state. I know it is easy for someone like me to say
such awful things about the opposition from the comfort of my chair. But
lets face it. If you claim yourself an opposition and ask people to give you
their trust, money and support, you better act like one heck of an
opposition who can at least stay together. If the main business of the
opposition is breaking itself up into mini-groups it cannot put up any
discernible challenge to Woyane.
But the root of the problem is us, I mean, the Ethiopian people. When
someone breaks up a party and come to us with a different name and logo, we
endorse them without reservation. Indeed political breakup is an Ethiopian
thing, even historically. From Kinijit to UDJ we have tacitly encouraged
breakups. We have heard or read about what happened within UDJ. These are
opposition leaders who went through thin and thick together for four years
including going to jail for close to two years. The best they can offer now
is a breakup. The other opposition parties, looked at collectively, are
pathetic. I have watched a televised debate between the opposition and the
ruling party when I was in Ethiopia. Ignoring the ones who are in Woyane's
payroll, the seemingly true opposition parties used up most of their
allotted time bickering at each other. Truly pathetic. The opposition
outside the country has always been a laughing stock. Makeup-breakup has
long been its specialty. After three decades in exile, the Diaspora
opposition still lacks sophistication and a civilized political culture.
When I say the opposition, it includes ethnic organizations as well. In
fact, their situation is even more pitiable. Instead of coming together and
forging a common front to put a system in place that will truly address
their particular issues and interests within our common motherland, they put
themselves at the service of Woyane by fracturing the country into
artificial ethnic boundaries and groups. They are now easy targets for
attack and ridicule by Meles and his semi-literate gangster. No one,
including these ethnic organizations, believe that they will get what they
want under Woyane. The one's that are wasting their time in the capitals of
Western countries are even in a more pathetic state than the ones inside the
country. Even though they live in countries of overflowing knowledge,
invention, and constant change, these entities remain stubborn and ignorant
playing the same old and boring song which appeals only to Woyane.
Conclusion: It is an all rounded depressing political reality. I have no
idea how this could be turned around. But I strongly feel that it is up the
Opposition. I never did and will not expect Woyane to create conducive
political space for the opposition. But I don't believe that a lack of
political space is the Opposition's problem. The Opposition's problem is
internal, not external. The Opposition is its own saboteur.