From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sun Nov 15 2009 - 15:25:41 EST
Perspectives on the Future of the Somali Jihad
Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 7 Issue: 34
November 14, 2009 12:44 PM Age: 15 hrs
Category: Terrorism Monitor, Global Terrorism Analysis, Home Page,
Military/Security, Africa
By:
<http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaf
frelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=153> Andrew McGregor
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=35729&tx_ttne
ws[backPid]=7&cHash=9cfd93712d
For nearly a year now, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia
has been waging a life or death struggle for survival against the repeated
assaults of a radical Islamist opposition; an opposition that remains
unsatisfied with the appointment of a fellow Islamist as president and the
implementation of Shari'a as the law of the land. Led by the former leader
of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Ahmad, the TFG has
little effective control over the country outside of a few Mogadishu
neighborhoods, despite backing from the United States, the United Nations
and the African Union (AU). Members of the TFG work under the constant
threat of assassination, keeping many parliamentarians outside of the
country. The Islamist militants demonstrated their reach in a bombing that
killed the Minister of Security, Colonel Umar Hashi Adan, in Hiraan province
last June (al-Jazeera [Doha], June 19; al-Arabiya [Dubai], June 18).
Possible directions for the future of the Islamist insurgency in Somalia are
offered below.
Leadership of Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen
The leadership of Somalia's Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen (Youth Mujahideen
Movement) appears to be in a state of flux at the moment. The movement's
reclusive leader, Shaykh Ahmad Abdi Godane "Abu Zubayr" (a.k.a. Ahmad Abdi
Aw Muhammad, a.k.a Shaykh Mukhtar "Abu Zubayr"), was seriously wounded in
May when a suicide bomb went off prematurely in a safe house where an
al-Shabaab meeting was being held (Garowe Online, May 18, May 20;
Waagacusub.com, May 18). Little has been heard of him since. Only days after
the blast, the public face of the movement, Shaykh Mukhtar Robow "Abu
Mansur," was replaced by Shaykh Ali Mahmud Raage (a.k.a. Shaykh Ali Dheere)
(Radio Simba, May 21; Shabelle Media Network, May 22). No explanation was
offered for the sudden change and Mukhtar Robow briefly faded from public
view before reappearing with a statement threatening the administrations of
semi-autonomous Puntland and Somaliland, a self-declared independent state
(AllPuntland.com, October 31). He was then reported to have appeared at an
anti-Israel demonstration in Baydhabo, where he announced that there would
be a hunt for anyone who holds Israeli citizenship or who might be Jewish
(Puntland Post, October 31). Though there are no public signs of enmity,
there is always the possibility that Godane's death or prolonged
incapacitation could set off a power struggle within the Shabaab leadership.
Factionalism in the Islamist Opposition
The Hizb al-Islam movement, led by Shaykh Dahir Aweys, is the successor to
Shaykh Aweys' earlier organization, the Eritrean-based Alliance for the
Re-liberation of Somalia - Asmara (ARS-Asmara). While Hizb al-Islam is
larger than al-Shabaab, the latter is better organized and possibly better
equipped. At the moment, Hizb al-Islam operates as an ally of al-Shabaab in
the fighting in Mogadishu, though there are differences between the two
groups that could erupt into open warfare at any moment. There have already
been skirmishes between the groups.
Al-Shabaab's Salafist orientation has brought it into conflict with
Somalia's Sufis, who have responded to the desecration and destruction of
their shrines and places of pilgrimage by forming their own formidable
militia, the Ahlu Sunnah wa'l-Jama'a. With Sufis rather than Salafists
representing mainstream Islam in Somalia, al-Shabaab has created a
determined enemy that is unlikely to cease fighting until the radical
Islamists have been defeated.
Internationalization of the Somalia Conflict
Reflecting its narrow vision of what constitutes righteous rule, al-Shabaab
has, in the last year, threatened all of its neighbors as well as Burundi,
Uganda, Ghana, Israel and the United States. The conflict already has an
international element, with Ugandan and Burundian troops of the African
Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) deeply involved in the active defense of
the TFG, Ethiopian troops conducting cross-border incursions after a lengthy
and costly occupation of Somalia, and U.S. airstrikes being launched on
terrorist targets. The TFG has also issued appeals for neighboring
countries, including Kenya, Djibouti and Yemen, to send troops to Somalia to
bolster the government (al-Jazeera, June 22). It is clear that the TFG has
little local support it can rely on and would quickly collapse without
international backing.
Al-Shabaab is active in fundraising and recruitment of Somali diaspora
groups in Sweden, the UK, the Netherlands, Canada and the United States (NRC
Handelsblad, November 13). While these activities have not yet escalated to
politically-motivated violence, the possibility exists, particularly as
al-Shabaab becomes more vocal in its threats to Western states. The recent
arrest of three Somali men accused of targeting a military installation in
Australia with a suicide attack has alarmed other nations hosting large
Somali communities (Australian Broadcasting Corporation, August 7).
Al-Shabaab has pledged retaliation against the United States in response to
the mid-September airstrike that killed al-Qaeda suspect Saleh Ali Saleh
Nabhan (Daily Nation [Nairobi], October 8). Though direct retaliation is
probably beyond the means of al-Shabaab, it is entirely possible that its
agents in the American diaspora could arrange some kind of internal attack
by young people sympathetic to the Islamist cause in Somalia. Al-Shabaab
leader Shaykh Abdi Ahmad Godane has made clear the international ambitions
of the movement: "We will fight and the wars will not end until Islamic
Shari'a is implemented in all continents in the world and until Muslims
liberate Jerusalem." (AFP, May 13). For the moment these goals may exceed
the grasp of a movement that has yet to take Mogadishu.
What Will Happen in Somalia in the Event of a Shabaab Victory?
. Popular support for the movement (which is difficult to gauge but
certainly does not include a majority of Somalis) would inevitably diminish
due to the movement's ordinances against popular pastimes such as watching
soccer or chewing qat, as well as the movement's affection for hudud
punishments for violations of Shari'a, such as stonings, amputations,
beheadings and whippings. Though Shari'a law has already been implemented in
Somalia, al-Shabaab is only interested in its own interpretation, one not
shared by a majority of Somalis.
. Shabaab's foreign connections will work against them. Shabaab's
international ties are all with non-state actors, none of which will be of
any assistance in running a state. On the contrary, these ties will invite
embargoes and other sanctions. International isolation and the suspension of
humanitarian aid are likely outcomes for an organization which has referred
to UN aid agencies as "enemies of Islam."
. The movement's revanchist program to establish a "Greater Somalia"
places it immediately at odds with every one of Somalia's neighbors. Any
attempt to expand Somalia's borders as part of the development of an Islamic
Caliphate in the Horn of Africa would require full national support, in the
absence of which disaster would surely befall the movement and the nation.
Al-Shabaab's revanchism would quickly mobilize regional opposition.
. Civil war with Puntland and Somaliland would quickly follow an
al-Shabaab victory in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab terrorist attacks on autonomous
Puntland and self-declared independent Somaliland have already introduced
political violence into these pockets of Somali stability. Shabaab's
declared intention is to bring both regions under the control of an Islamist
caliphate, a program with almost no popular support in these two regions.
With Puntland and Somaliland already embroiled in a bitter and occasionally
violent border territorial dispute, the possibility of a three-sided civil
war exists.
. Continued fighting with Ahlu wa'l Jama'a would be a near certainty with
al-Shabaab hardliners appearing to have won the internal debate over the
wisdom of deliberately antagonizing Somalia's vast Sufi community through
the continued destruction and desecration of Sufi shrines, graves and places
of pilgrimage.
. Though al-Shabaab has cooperated with Shaykh Hassan Dahir Aweys' Hizb
al-Islam militia on the Mogadishu battleground, the Shabaab leadership has
serious differences with the ambitious Shaykh Aweys and would likely prefer
to exclude him from any Islamist administration. If Shaykh Aweys could keep
his fighters from going over to al-Shabaab, further intra-Islamist fighting
could be expected.
. Having very little influence with Somalia's tribal elders, the movement
has little expectation of resolving existing clan disputes or preventing the
eruption of new ones, leaving little hope that the movement could impose
stability without a massive increase in violence.
. Without a core of technical experts or experienced administrators, the
inability of al-Shabaab to carry out the basic administrative functions of a
national government would inevitably lead to the collapse of the regime,
leaving Somalia in perhaps an irreparable state.
. The return of Ethiopia's military would be a real possibility. The rise
of Islamist forces in Somalia is likely to increase ethnic-Somali resistance
to Ethiopian rule in the Ogaden region. If Addis Ababa has a choice between
fighting the war in Somalia or their own in eastern Ogaden province, it will
choose Somalia, especially if further U.S. arms and training are made
available. The United States would like to act through a proxy in Somalia
rather than open a new front in the War on Terrorism through direct military
intervention.
. The possible effect of an al-Shabaab victory on the piracy situation is
difficult to gauge. In the past al-Shabaab has expressed its opposition to
piracy, even attacking a party of pirates at one point, though this was just
as likely to be inspired by clan rivalries or a dispute over distribution of
ransom money. Since most pirate activity emanates from Puntland, an
al-Shabaab victory in Mogadishu might have little impact unless the movement
acts to invade Puntland and end its semi-autonomous status. This would bring
al-Shabaab into direct contact with the armed forces of neighboring
Somaliland and an almost inevitable confrontation that would stretch
al-Shabaab's supply lines and capabilities in a region where they have
little influence.
. An al-Shabaab victory would represent a major blow to African Union
(AU) peacekeeping efforts. The AU mission to Darfur could be described as
having a mixed record at best - in Somalia it has only been through the
commitment of Uganda that AMISOM has survived. Though the mission has been
bolstered by the addition of Burundian troops, it is still severely
undermanned and subject to greater stress than ever since the AMISOM mandate
was changed to provide for military action against the insurgents in
Mogadishu. In the event of a TFG collapse, AMISOM troops and equipment
(including artillery and armor) would have to be quickly evacuated, a
capability the AU does not possess. With little peace to keep, the AU
peacekeepers face daily combat losses and are subject to suicide bombings
even in their own camps, such as the one that killed 17 Ugandan and
Burundian soldiers on September 17, including the mission's second in
command, Major General Juvenal Niyoyunguruza of Burundi. The attack was
retaliation for the U.S. airstrike that killed al-Qaeda operative Saleh Ali
Saleh Nabhan (New Vision [Kampala], September 17; Daily Nation [Nairobi],
September 18). ).
. An al-Shabaab victory would present jihadis in other theaters with a
temporary morale boost, but a large scale movement of jihadis to Somalia is
still unlikely. Somali clannishness and factionalism are anathema to
hardcore jihadis, who are in the habit of placing organizational needs and
group identity over personal or tribal needs and identities. Lack of
infrastructure and modern communications will inhibit rather than enhance
international operations based in Somalia. The prevailing xenophobia of many
Somalis does not offer the same sort of welcome and refuge al-Qaeda found in
the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan and northwest Pakistan. Southern Somalia
also offers a possible trap for global jihadis, as seen from the experience
of the ICU in December 2006, when Ethiopian troops on land and U.S. ships at
sea squeezed the ICU fighters towards a reinforced Kenyan border. Getting
out of Somalia could be much harder than getting in if an international
effort is mobilized against al-Shabaab.
. A mass exodus of Somali civilians would surely follow an al-Shabaab
victory, leading to a further humanitarian crisis that might require
international intervention. Already parts of Mogadishu have been largely
depopulated and Somali refugees make desperate attempts to reach Yemen daily
on craft that are barely seaworthy. With most land borders closed to
refugees, smuggling people out of Somalia has become one of the few growth
industries in Puntland, the closest point to Yemen.
. In the event of an al-Shabaab victory, the movement may ironically rely
on Somali factionalism for its survival. Much the same way as the TFG only
survives due to the inability of the Islamist opposition to unite
effectively, al-Shabaab could survive for an extended time because of the
inability of the anti-Islamist opposition to unite.
Conclusion
Despite international support, the TFG of President Shaykh Sharif Shaykh
Ahmad appears to have little chance of survival. Almost continuous pressure
from the armed Islamist opposition threatens to undermine the current
administration, sending it to the same fate as the failed administrations of
former President Abdullahi Yusuf and the earlier Transitional National
Government (TNG) of Abdiqasam Salad Hassan. With little hope of relief from
the apparently incessant warfare in south and central Somalia, there are
signs that further attempts will be made to carve out independent,
locally-ruled mini-states along the lines of Puntland and Somaliland.
Combined with the entrenchment of clan rivalries and interference from
neighboring states, regional interests and international powers, prospects
for the establishment of a united Somalia at peace with its neighbors are
disappointingly slim.