Somalia, its Neighbours and Al-Shabaab: the Quest for Sustainable Solutions
- By Seifulaziz Milas
January 4, 2013
The Juba river in Southern Somalia holds great potential for agricultural
development of the country.
In Somalia, the radical Islamist militia, Al-Shabab, that has terrorized
much of the country over the past five years, appears to be on the run. They
have been forced out of the capital, Mogadishu, and all of the major towns
that were once under their control (including Kismayo in the South). But
those who believe the Shabaab are finished could find that they are sorely
mistaken.
The eradication of Al-Shabaab, although essential to the peace and security
of both Somalia and its neighbours, is unlikely to be achieved by military
force alone. What is actually required is a coordinated and sustained
regional effort to eliminate the underlying causes of the growth of Islamist
radicalism among Somali youth including assistance to effectively address
the persistent and structural humanitarian crisis affecting most of Somalia.
Key requirements include improved governance, and concerted efforts to
rebuild and expand Somali livelihoods, and the country's economy. Most of
the current generation of Somalis have grown up in conditions of conflict,
insecurity of livelihood and deprivation. This has tended to make many of
them vulnerable to the arguments and promises of the Islamist militants. The
new Somali Government must avoid the corruption trap and tendencies towards
dividing up the governmental 'cake' along clan lines, and focus its efforts
on solving the livelihood problems faced by the majority of the country's
population.
The new government must also urgently address humanitarian issues and start
the flow of food aid to the areas liberated from Al- Shabaab. The Shabaab
alienated large groups of people in southern and central Somalia by allowing
them to die of hunger, rather than permit aid organizations to give them
food. If the arrival of food aid, and assistance for reconstruction follows
quickly in the tracks of the Kenyan and AMISOM forces, that will strengthen
the local constituency for the elimination of Al-Shabaab in the country.
Food aid is a necessary but temporary expedient. It helps to keep people
alive, while plans to enable them to earn a livelihood are being made. This
is an area in which there is a vital role for the international community to
play in putting Somalia back on the road to development and self-reliance.
Along with conflict, drought and desertification are key causes of
impoverishment and destitution in large areas of Somalia and adjacent
regions of Ethiopia and Kenya. With an increasing population, there is more
pressure on the land and its limited resources. Drought and desertification
disasters are occurring at increasingly shorter intervals, with less
opportunity for recovery. Hundreds of thousands of rural households in
Somalia and neighbouring regions of Ethiopia and Kenya have lost most of the
livestock on which they depend, dropping entire communities into chronic
destitution.
Implications for the IGAD region
Regional economic integration could make an important contribution to
addressing these shared problems, in the context of the Intergovernmental
Authority for Development (IGAD) - the Regional Economic Commission for the
Horn of Africa. It provides the institutional framework for regional
economic integration, towards increasing prosperity and integration into the
global economy.
The countries of the region are bound by history and geography in
relationships of interdependence with considerable potential for cooperation
for their common development, for example, through transport corridors to
seaports, management of shared water resources, and improved energy
security.
Much of rural Somalia is gripped in a livelihood crisis with increasingly
serious implications for human security. It is a situation that demands
substantial investment in the integrated development of the region's land
and water resources and creating sustainable alternative livelihoods. The
key requirements for this include improved infrastructure to provide
reliable access to transport, water and affordable energy. In particular,
the rehabilitation of the country's internal roads and their interconnection
with those of the neighbouring countries could open the way to increased
trade, economic growth and poverty reduction.
Similarly, the ongoing oil price crisis makes affordable energy a key
problem faced by countries that like Somalia where people largely depend on
oil fired electricity generation. But this could be addressed by
interconnection with Ethiopia's electricity grid to enable it to purchase
much cheaper hydroelectricity, a solution already agreed by Djibouti, Kenya
and Sudan, in the context of the planned East African Power Pool (EAPP).
The EAPP is already on the way to becoming part of a new regional reality,
and a key example of regional economic integration. In September 2012 the
African Development Bank (AfDB) approved USD348 million in funding for a USD
1.26 billion project for an electricity transmission line connecting
Ethiopia and Kenya. This is a key step towards the establishment of the East
African Power Pool, which may later be connected to a Southern Africa Power
Pool. The project will promote power trade and regional integration.
Djibouti is already interconnected with Ethiopia's power grid and buying
Ethiopian hydropower at a fraction of the cost of oil-based power
generation. The same could be done for Somalia.
Addressing the basic issues of sustainable rural livelihoods will need to be
undertaken through forms of regional economic integration that encourage the
cooperative development of the shared water resources of this drought
disaster-prone region comprising Somalia, the Ethiopian Somali region (the
Ogaden) and northeastern Kenya. These areas are inextricably linked in terms
of ethnic ties, economic exchange and inter-dependence, shared natural
resources, and the constant cross-border movement of their pastoral
populations.
The Way Forward
There is an important opportunity for joint development of the hydroelectric
and irrigation potential of the Shabelle and Dawa-Gennale-Juba river basins
in the context of infrastructure-led regional economic integration. The
cooperative development of the shared water resources of this drought prone
region of Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia offers considerable potential to
rehabilitate the livelihoods of their populations and put them on the path
to sustainable development and peace.
Multi-purpose dams on the Shabelle and Dawa-Gennale-Juba rivers could
contribute to the hydroelectric power needs of the three countries, enhance
their irrigation potential, and prevent the recurrent floods that from time
to time devastate large areas of the lower Shabelle and Gennale-Juba basins,
leading to serious loss of life and property. It would need significant
investment, but it would be far cheaper than the costs of chronic conflict
and humanitarian disasters and the economic returns would repay the
investment.
With a million hectares of irrigable land on the Ethiopian side and hundreds
of thousands within Somalia, both countries would benefit from such
development. This would enable irrigation-based agriculture, livestock
raising, agro-processing, and employment, for those who choose to settle, as
well as those who are already settled, but are often affected by recurrent
drought, and food insecurity. It would also reduce the chronic poverty and
resource competition that are among the major underlying causes of conflict.
The dams to be built in the two main river basins would control the massive
periodic floods like those that occurred in the lower Juba valley a decade
ago, resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of livestock and
considerable loss of human life. The regular availability of water would
prevent the loss of huge numbers of valuable livestock, and crops to
frequent drought disasters. Along with disaster prevention, they would also
provide opportunities for hydropower production. The availability of
affordable hydropower could provide a key economic missing link, by opening
the way to agro-processing, adding value to agricultural and livestock
production, providing employment for the population, and reducing poverty.
This could also make a major contribution to reduction of resource
competition and conflict risk.
As in India and China, labour-intensive light manufacturing has significant
potential to put the Horn of Africa on the road to development. Countries
like Ethiopia and Somalia have the necessary cheap labour for this, but what
they need to make the jump is abundant, affordable and reliable electricity,
to enable them to add value to their production, for example, by exporting
meat and leather products, rather than livestock on the hoof.
Somalia, once it settles its internal conflicts, will be well-positioned to
benefit from regional economic integration. This, of course, will depend to
a large degree on the success of the new government, with the assistance of
the AU forces in defeating the Al-Shabaab militias, and establishing an
acceptable level of governance. If successful, a peaceful Somalia could have
the opportunity, based on the shared water resources of the
Dawa-Gennale-Juba, and Shabelle river basins, to rebuild its long neglected
agricultural and livestock economies.
In the context of IGAD and regional economic integration, a peaceful
Somalia, would also be well-positioned to benefit from Ethiopian use of its
port facilities, as Ethiopia begins to tap the agricultural and livestock
development potential of its Ogaden region. The closest ports to the
southeastern Ogaden are those of Mogadishu and Kismayo. This would open the
way to a new and more constructive, cooperative and peaceful relationship
between the two countries.
This is particularly important in view of the rapid increase in population
numbers across much of the area, and the increasing pressure of fast-growing
populations on diminishing resources. The more effective and cooperative use
of the region's water resources, could make important contributions to
economic development, to the reduction of poverty, periodic food insecurity,
hunger and conflict risk.
The potential for irrigated agriculture and livestock-raising could serve as
a lifebelt for both farming and pastoral populations dependent on erratic
rainfall, in the context of periodic drought and food shortages, and
increasing poverty. It would open the way to sustainable rural livelihoods,
and to increased opportunities for urban employment and trade, within
Somalia, and between Somalia and its neighbours.
In the context of regional economic integration, this would reduce resource
competition and accelerate development and livelihood opportunities. It
would also reduce conflict risk by providing the populations on both sides
of the border with resources and opportunities that they could not afford to
jeopardize, or allow to be jeopardized, through conflict.
Seifulaziz Milas is a writer on the Horn of Africa and author of
<
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sharing-Nile-Egypt-Ethiopia-Geo-Politics/dp/0745333
206/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1349258917&sr=1-1> Sharing the Nile:
Egypt, Ethiopia and the Geo-Politics of Water.
Received on Sat Jan 05 2013 - 02:36:44 EST
