Blighted economies force Sudans to negotiating table
Motivated in large part by the fragile economies of their respective
nations, the Sudanese and South Sudanese presidents will meet in Ethiopia on
January 4 to try to resolve oil and border conflicts.
By <
http://www.france24.com/en/category/tags-auteurs/anne-diandra-louarn>
Anne-Diandra LOUARN (text)
04/01/2013
After months of stalemate, a resolution to the crisis gripping the two
Sudans could be in sight.
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir will meet with his South Sudanese
counterpart, Salva Kiir, in Ethiopia on Friday, January 4, at the urging of
the African Union. The two countries, which signed a peace deal in 2005
after a long civil war, are expected to discuss the possibility of
establishing a demilitarised buffer zone along the disputed border
separating them.
The resumption of oil flows will also be one of the most pressing issues on
the table.
Since the two Sudans separated on July 9, 2011, Khartoum has been deprived
of 75% of its oil resources, located in the south. Meanwhile, Juba, the
capital of landlocked South Sudan, has had to rely on the north’s pipeline,
refinery and export terminal at Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
Tensions reached a head in January 2012, when a spat with the north over
transit fees prompted South Sudan to halt its oil production entirely.
Sudan faces economic consequences of split
South Sudan accuses Sudan of incursion
Sudanese troops clashed with South Sudanese forces along their restive
border, South Sudan's army said Thursday, a day ahead of planned talks
between the presidents of the two rival nations.
Sudanese planes also dropped bombs as the rival forces clashed on Wednesday
in South Sudan's remote north Raja region of Western Bahr el-Ghazal state,
said the South's army spokesman Philip Aguer.
"They attacked on Wednesday, and the fighting continued until late in the
afternoon... It is a remote region so we are still awaiting updates on
casualties," he said.
United Nations peacekeepers could not confirm the reports and the claims
could not be independently verified.
(AFP)
“It’s the economy that is forcing the two sides to sit down together at the
negotiating table,” explained Benjamin Augé, a researcher on African affairs
at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). “Without the oil
revenue it used to have, the north is economically asphyxiated, while the
south – which doesn’t yet have a well-established economy – is struggling to
dig up funds. Their short-term strategy of fighting each other and creating
instability along their border cannot last.”
According to Augé, the north did not prepare sufficiently for the economic
fallout from the separation from the south. “The leaders in the north should
have put in place some kind of policy to compensate for the loss of
three-quarters of their oil resources – notably by investing in the
exploration of new oil deposits or beefing up the industry,” he noted. “But
they waited too long.”
Now, with rebel attacks becoming more frequent, Sudanese are becoming
increasingly angry with their political leaders. “The rise in prices coupled
with enormous inflation has made the cost of living unmanageable for many
inhabitants,” Augé said.
Shaky administration in south
In the south, things hardly look more promising. “Now that the civil war is
over, there is a population of 10 million to oversee – people with
legitimate expectations from their government,” Augé explained. “Many
countries contributed, either financially or with technical support, to the
construction of South Sudan’s government – particularly the US and Norway –
but there’s still much to be done.”
Without solid infrastructure and a functioning administration, South Soudan,
which produced 350,000 barrels of oil per day before gaining its
independence, is currently overwhelmed. “In Juba, there are not enough
people working in the government, and many of the employed civil servants
are far from competent,” Augé said. “It will take several years to get
things up to standard. Some people who received their training in South
Africa or the US have returned home but don’t necessarily have access to the
highest-ranking positions, and are not always accepted by those who stayed
during the civil war.”
At the same time, the economic interdependence that has weakened both Sudan
and South Sudan is precisely what has pushed them toward a possible
resolution. In his vows for 2013, President Salva Kiir of South Sudan
announced that he would temporarily withdraw forces from the border areas in
order to facilitate the creation of an “operational” demilitarised border.
Such a zone would nevertheless likely be monitored by soldiers from both
Sudans, as well as UN forces.
Still, the outcome of the upcoming meeting in Addis Abeba is uncertain.
“There is so much mistrust from both sides that has built up over the past
50 years, that it’s extremely difficult to predict whether these talks will
be fruitful,” Augé assessed.
Aside from oil and border issues, Augé noted, there is the still-unresolved
matter of contested regions like Abyei, as well as the thorny question of
Sudan’s debt, which it is asking South Sudan to help pay off.
Received on Sat Jan 05 2013 - 02:38:11 EST
