Somalia: Somali Provincial Leaders Fear Wider Ethiopian Pull-Out
By Abdi Moalim,
27 March 2013
Mogadishu - Ethiopia's decision to withdraw its troops from Hudur in
Somalia's Bakool region is causing consternation among administration
leaders in other Somali regions.
The fear is that al-Shabaab could make territorial gains in other areas
should the Ethiopian army pull out of them as well.
When Ethiopian and Somali forces left Hudur on March 17th, about 2,000
residents fled with them. Al-Shabaab then took control of the town, killing
civilians in the process.
Ethiopian troops have been supporting the Somali and African Union Mission
in Somalia (AMISOM) security forces on and off since 2006. They were first
deployed during the administration of President Abdullahi Yusuf in 2006 to
help install the Somali Federal Government in Mogadishu, and later withdrew
in 2009.
Ethiopian forces returned to Somalia in 2011 and re-captured from al-Shabaab
large swathes near the border. However, Addis Ababa said it did not plan to
deploy its troops in Somalia for the long-term.
Filling the security vacuum:
Now there is growing concern that Ethiopia will vacate other regions of
Somalia before the Somali army and AMISOM forces are ready to move in and
fill the vacuum.
Somali government forces lack weapons, technical ability and adequate
supplies to compensate for an Ethiopian departure, said Osman Libah, a
parliamentarian from Baidoa who represents Bay and Bakool regions.
"It was the government's job to negotiate these things with the Ethiopians
because the Ethiopian army has been responsible for security for over a
year," Libah told Sabahi. "But the government has failed to nurture regional
forces so that they are strong."
"The security forces located here are not small in number, but they do not
have food or weapons, and they are very demoralised, resulting in them
fleeing along with the residents," he said.
In addition, Somali forces are relatively green, according to Bakool Deputy
Governor Hassan Ibrahim Hassan.
"The government forces in Bakool region were recently formed and do not have
the capacity to battle al-Shabaab," he told Sabahi. "Therefore, we need
support in order for the army to regain control of Hudur."
Director General in the Ministry of Interior and National Security Hussein
Abdi Adam said a joint military effort is still the best way to ensure
security, since the Somali government was until recently unable to arm
itself due to the United Nations arms embargo, which was partially lifted
this month.
"Nothing can be done about the state of security without a joint effort by
Ethiopian, AMISOM and government forces, because the government has faced
the obstacle of the arms embargo, resulting in the inability of government
troops to retain places vacated by the Ethiopians," Adam told Sabahi.
AMISOM vows to replace Ethiopian troops:
For its part, AMISOM has said it is ready and able to fill the military
vacuum left by the departure of Ethiopian forces.
"Our work is to help the citizens of Somalia and the government, to enable
them to regain control of the country in order to bring back and reinforce
law and order," said AMISOM spokesman Colonel Ali Aden Humud, according to
RBC Radio.
"We are putting final touches on our plan to reach Hudur town and other
areas in Bay and Bakool region where al-Shabaab control now and we promise
we will take over the control of the areas that al-Shabaab are currently
controlling," he said.
AMISOM Commander Andrew Gutti said he was confident there were sufficient
troop levels in the area.
"We have in place contingent measures to ensure that areas in Bay and Bakool
... remain stable and secure in the event of further Ethiopian troop
withdrawals," he said.
Libah, however, said AMISOM cannot cover all of Somalia. "It is possible
that AMISOM will secure Baidoa and other places, but it cannot reach far-off
districts and villages such as Qansah Dhere and Berdale," he said.
Mogadishu University Professor Abdulkarim Daud, a former army colonel, said
AMISOM is capable of replacing Ethiopian forces, but its lack of readiness
could end up strengthening al-Shabaab.
"If AMISOM uses its 17,000-strong forces in Somalia, it can do a lot," he
told Sabahi. "However, looking at the current reality, it is not prepared
and has no intention of quickly replacing the Ethiopians."
To prevent al-Shabaab from capturing militarily exposed regions in the
future, the Somali government must focus on breaking its dependence on
direct foreign military assistance, Daud said.
"The only solution to this problem is the government building up its forces
so that there is no longer a need to depend on foreign troops," he said.
