Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2013 15:09:44 +0200
Amb. David Shinn: I doubt that the United States will take sides on the Nile
water issue
June 11, 2013 <http://www.awrambatimes.com/?p=8343#comments> 24 Comments
Amb. David Shinn is an Adjunct Professor of International Affairs at the
George Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs. His
diverse career in the foreign service of the United States has included
ambassadorships to Ethiopia and Burkina Faso.
Shinn is a frequent commentator in the news media on East African Affairs
particularly on Sino-African relations, Piracy in Somalia, and so on. Please
read his interview with the Egyptian private daily newspaper, Youm 7
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Question: Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi recently visited Ethiopia. How
do you interpret the visit?
Shinn: President Mursi seems to have had a good visit to Ethiopia on the
occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Organization of African
Unity/African Union. He also conducted some bilateral business, especially
concerning the Nile water issue. Following a meeting with Ethiopian Prime
Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, Mursi said both countries agreed that their
Nile water interests would be addressed by a tripartite committee that
includes representatives from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. The focus will be
on Ethiopia's huge new dam known as the Renaissance Dam now being
constructed on the Blue Nile River, the principal tributary of the Nile
River. President Mursi, who also visited Addis Ababa in July 2012, met with
numerous other senior Ethiopian officials during his visit.
Question: Ethiopia is planning to build the Renaissance Dam. Will it affect
Egypt's share of the water in the Nile River?
Shinn: The Renaissance Dam is for hydropower, not for irrigation. It will be
filled gradually; the Ethiopian Minister for Water and Energy, Alemayehu
Tegenu, estimates it will take five to six years to fill the reservoir
behind the dam. This will be done over a long period of time in order to
minimize the annual reduction of water reaching Sudan and Egypt while it is
being filled. Once the reservoir is full, the impact on Sudan and Egypt
should be minimal. Because its purpose is hydropower, water will continue to
flow through the dam. There will be some evaporation from the reservoir, but
because of the higher altitude and cooler temperatures prevailing at the
location of the dam, the effect will be less than if the dam had been built
in Sudan or Egypt.
Question: Is it possible that the new dam might spur a war over water in the
region?
Shinn: While in this part of the world anything is possible, it is highly
unlikely. To the best of my knowledge there has never been a major war
anywhere exclusively over water. I don't expect this to happen in the case
of construction of the Renaissance Dam in spite of occasional excessively
flamboyant rhetoric from all parties. I believe former President Anwar Sadat
was the first to suggest the possibility of war with Ethiopia over use of
Nile water. But several Ethiopian officials have also made unnecessarily
strident remarks on the subject.
Most recently, Egyptian opposition figure Hamdeen Sabbahi and Sheikh
Abdel-Akher Hammad of al-Gamaa al-Islamiya stoked these fires. Hamdeen said
Egypt could close the Suez Canal to countries such as China and Italy, which
are helping Ethiopia with construction of the dam. Sheikh Abdel-Akher Hammad
upon learning that Ethiopia had begun to divert slightly the Nile during the
construction process, said "we are ready to fight and we will embark on it
with all our strength to defend our honor."
These kinds of uninformed comment are not helpful. Fortunately, senior
Egyptian government officials have been more reasoned in their public
remarks. Egypt's Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Bahaa
Eddin recently commented that Cairo is not opposed to the construction of
the dam so long as it does not impair Egypt's interests. He added that the
dam is a regional project designed to benefit Sudan and Egypt, in addition
to Ethiopia. Egypt's Deputy Foreign Minister for African Affairs, Ali Hifni,
said that the recent diversion of the Nile was not something to worry about
although he did express concern over construction of the dam.
Question: If Egypt and Sudan were to sign the Entebbe Agreement [Cooperative
Framework Agreement - CFA] would it make any difference in the current
impasse?
Shinn: Nile River riparian states Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania
and Burundi have signed the Entebbe Agreement, which says that projects
could be built on Nile tributaries so long as they do not significantly
affect the water flow. South Sudan has indicated that it intends to sign the
agreement. Downstream states Sudan and Egypt have not signed the agreement.
At one point, Egypt called the Entebbe Agreement a national security threat.
Egypt argues it will not accept any less than 51 billion square meters of
water (about three quarters of the total Nile flow) annually that was agreed
to in a treaty signed by Sudan and Egypt in 1959. Most of the remaining
water (18 billion square meters annually) was reserved for Sudan. The volume
of water reaching the Aswan Dam varies enormously from year to year.
Ethiopia did not sign the 1959 agreement, which provided no water allocation
for Ethiopia. The other riparian states were under colonial control at that
time.
Acceptance of the Entebbe Agreement by Egypt and Sudan would be welcomed by
the other riparian states and could help reduce tension among the riparians.
There is no indication, however, that Egypt or Sudan has any intention to
accept the Entebbe Agreement as written.
Question: Do you think that the presence of the Muslim Brotherhood in power
can affect the relationship with Ethiopia or the possibility of spurring war
in the region?
Shinn: So long as the Muslim Brotherhood continues to pursue a generally
pragmatic approach to its interaction with other countries in the region, I
don't believe it will increase the possibility of conflict. If it decides to
pursue an ideological policy, including the exportation to other countries
of fundamentalist Islamic principles, then I foresee greater conflict.
Question: Did the Egyptian government pay the required attention or exert
the appropriate efforts regarding the Nile Basin issues and is there a
political solution to the problem?
Shinn: Recent Egyptian governments have always had the Nile water question
at the top of the foreign policy priority list. During periods of government
change, there is inevitably a need to refocus attention on internal security
and related issues and this probably occurred in the early days of the Mursi
administration. But I don't believe the Mursi government ever lost sight of
the importance of the Nile water issue. A political solution is the ONLY
solution to the problem. This issue will not and cannot be resolved
militarily. Science can make a positive contribution by introducing more
effective measures for the use of Nile water resources.
Question: What are the possible solutions to the impasse over use of Nile
water?
Shinn: The easiest solutions are the technical ones, i.e. those projects
that protect Nile Basin watershed, more efficient use of Nile water in
existing irrigation projects, the avoidance of massive new projects that
inefficiently use large quantities of water, especially for irrigation.
Eventually, however, there must be a political agreement involving all of
the riparian states that permits an equitable sharing of Nile water while
acknowledging that Egypt is about 95 percent dependent on the Nile for all
of its fresh water.
Question: What is the real role of Israel, United States and China in Africa
concerning the Nile issue?
Shinn: None of these countries has a direct role in the Nile water issue.
All of them can advise the riparian states to avoid conflict over Nile water
and work towards a political solution. All of them can financially support
the Nile Basin Initiative and make available to riparian states their
technical expertise on water management. Israel, for example, has developed
a highly efficient system of drip irrigation that uses less water.
Question: What is the role that the United States can play in the problem?
Shinn: Other than the suggestions that I made above, I don't see much of a
role for the United States. I believe Washington is reluctant to engage
politically in the issue. It has close relations with both Egypt and
Ethiopia and does not want to be seen taking sides. If it looks like the
Nile water issue will result in conflict, then the United States would
become more involved.
Question: Why did Ethiopia decide to build the Renaissance Dam without
taking into consideration the position of Egypt and Sudan? What is the
position of the Islamic movements in Egypt and Sudan on the issue?
Shinn: I am sure Ethiopia did take into account the positions of Egypt and
Sudan, although I do not know if there were consultations with both
governments before the decision was made to build the dam. Ethiopia has
legitimate development requirements and a serious shortage of hydropower.
As for the Islamic movements in Sudan and Egypt, I don't believe their
positions are notably different on this issue than previous governments. In
the case of Sudan, the Islamic government has been in power since 1989.
Question: Do you think that other countries are taking the side of Ethiopia
and in the event the situation escalates to conflict, will the United States
support Ethiopia?
Shinn: I don't think other countries are taking sides. Most just want to see
the most efficient and equitable use of Nile water. Again, this will require
an understanding by all the riparian countries, not just Egypt, Sudan and
Ethiopia.
As I noted earlier, I don't believe the Nile water issue will result in
serious conflict. If I am wrong, I doubt that the United States will take
sides on the issue.
Question: Can soft power organizations, especially the church, help in
introducing solutions for the impasse?
Shinn: First, I don't believe the issue has reached the impasse point.
Discussions are still ongoing even as work goes forward on the dam. This is
one of many, albeit the biggest, dams on Nile tributaries. It is not as
though this is a new issue. If the Renaissance Dam supported a huge new
irrigation project in Ethiopia where the water would never reach Egypt, then
Cairo would have real reason for concern. But it doesn't do that; it is for
hydropower. Once the reservoir fills, the water flows as before.
Second, there is a role for soft power organizations such as churches and
mosques and that is to provide facts about Nile water projects so that
people are better informed. Soft power groups can also urge their
governments to make more efficient use of existing water resources. I don't
see much of a role for soft power organizations to impact the political
discussions.
Amb. David Shinn, former US ambassador to Ethiopia (Photo: Awramba Times)
(image/png attachment: image001.png)