How Egypt Might Try To Stop Ethiopia's Dam Project
6/13/2013 _at_ 9:22AM
Ethiopia's initiation of a dam project on the Blue Nile has quickly drawn
the ire of Egypt, which is critically dependent on it as a source of much of
the country's freshwater needs. As Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohamed Kamel
Amr said June 9 following <
https://www.stratfor.com/node/197818> Ethiopia's
refusal to halt construction of the dam and ahead of his trip to Addis Ababa
to discuss the project, Egypt will not give up a "single drop of water from
the Nile." "No Nile, no Egypt," he said.
While Egypt has struggled to attract diplomatic intervention on its behalf
to thwart Ethiopia's dam construction, tensions have reached the point where
Egypt has suggested the use of force to keep the dam from potentially
lowering the Nile's water levels downstream to unacceptable levels. There
will be serious international pressure to keep the dispute over the dam in
the realm of diplomacy, but there are also fairly significant constraints on
the physical possibility of an Egyptian military solution.
It varies depending on the dimensions of the dam, but dams can be and
usually are very tough targets to destroy. In World War II the British
proved that it could be done despite considerable difficulties and were the
first to seriously develop the art of dam busting. The British used
delayed-action bouncing bombs from Lancaster bombers, but fortunately for
the Egyptians, advancements in weapons technology would enable them to
target the Ethiopian dam in a less risky way. The best way for Egypt to
knock out a standing dam is to use retarded and delayed-action bombs
deployed from very low altitudes, or even better, delayed-action joint
direct attack munitions deployed at medium altitude. The difficulty is that
the bomb needs to be deployed at the very base of the dam, underwater, where
the concussive effect and pressure wave is greatly amplified. Preferably
more than one bomb would be deployed in this manner, and the force would be
sufficient to breach the dam.
To avoid the hassle of hitting a standing dam and creating major flooding
downstream in Sudan and even potentially Egypt, Cairo would probably prefer
to hit it while it is under construction. But it also has to be careful not
to hit the dam too early, because then Ethiopia may not be fully deterred
from restarting the project.
Distance is a major obstacle for the Egyptian military option. Ethiopia is
simply too far from Egypt, and since Egypt has not invested in any sort of
aerial refueling capability, it is beyond the combat radius of all Egyptian
aircraft staging from Egyptian airfields. The only consolation for Egypt is
that the dam is very close to the Sudanese border. Access to Sudanese
airfields would place some of Egypt's air force within range. However,
operating from Sudanese territory could be politically complicated and would
have international repercussions for Sudan along with Egypt. Sudan's
proximity to Ethiopia would also leave it vulnerable to direct military
retaliation.
Another option is the insertion of special operations forces into Sudan.
>From there, the forces could move across the border and either harass the
construction of the dam or attempt to sabotage the structure under the guise
of militants. This would allow Khartoum to realistically pledge that it had
no idea there were "militants" there. The harassment tactic by special
operations forces or militants would likely only delay the project, not
arrest construction.
Special operations forces teams would face their own series of obstacles in
trying to destroy the dam. Dams are critical infrastructure and routinely
protected relatively well in most countries by dedicated military units.
Ethiopia would be no exception, especially with all the contention already
surrounding the project. So Egyptian special operations forces would need
luck and skill to gain access to the dam successfully. There is also the
problem that a small team of ground forces, no matter how elite, would
likely be physically unable to carry enough ordnance to critically damage or
destroy the dam.
Egypt does have military options, but distance will heavily constrain its
ability to project the full force of its military. Any option Cairo chooses
to exercise will be risky at best and will also come with severe
international consequences.
Received on Thu Jun 13 2013 - 20:56:53 EDT