Egypt's Nile Threats Weaken Case to Secure Water: Shinn
By William Davison & Salma El Wardany
June 18, 2013
Egypt must drop its objection to an Ethiopian dam on the main tributary of
the Nile River or it may struggle to ensure adequate supplies from the
world's longest waterway, former U.S. Ambassador to
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/ethiopia/> Ethiopia
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/david-shinn/> David Shinn said.
A $4.3 billion, 6,000-megawatt hydropower plant, set to be
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/africa/> Africa's largest on completion in
2017, has raised concern in Egypt that it will cut supplies of water
allocated by accords put in place more than five decades ago. President
Mohamed Mursi told supporters in Cairo on June 10 his government will
"defend each drop of Nile water with our blood" if the country's water
security is threatened.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project, funded solely by Ethiopia's
government, is a "game-changer" because Egypt has historically blocked
international financing for large upstream Nile projects, Shinn said on June
12. The best way for <
http://topics.bloomberg.com/egypt/> Egypt to secure
its water needs is by cooperating on the project that could be
"transformational" in terms of industrializing East African economies, he
said.
"Ethiopia is the only country in the region that has the water to make a
huge contribution to increased availability of electricity," Shinn said in
an e-mailed response to questions. "It could solve all of Ethiopia's power
needs, sell power at a profit to neighbors, help control periodic flooding
in Sudan and contribute significantly to regional economic integration."
River Diverted
Ethiopia announced the project on the
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/blue-nile/> Blue Nile River, the largest of the
Nile's two tributaries, a month after former Egyptian President
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/hosni-mubarak/> Hosni Mubarak was deposed in
February 2011. Last month, Ethiopia diverted the flow of the Blue Nile as
part of the construction process.
Ethiopia is the source of 86 percent of the water that flows into the Nile,
a river that runs 4,160 miles through 11 countries from Burundi in the south
to Egypt, where it empties into the
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/mediterranean-sea/> Mediterranean Sea.
A study on the dam released last month found the project wouldn't cause
"appreciable" harm downstream nations, according to Ethiopia's government,
which says it won't use the dam for irrigation. The joint report was
inadequate because it failed to "clarify in detail the impacts of the dam,"
the Egyptian presidency said in a statement on June 3.
The dispute over the dam resonates in Egypt, where the Nile has long been
viewed as much of a symbol of the country as its primary water source.
Mursi, in a speech before an Islamist audience on June 10, said that if
Egypt is the "'gift of the Nile,' then the Nile is God's gift to Egypt."
Sugar, Wheat
Egypt relies on irrigation from the Nile to grow almost all of its cereals,
fruits and vegetables. The country is Africa's biggest wheat grower and the
continent's second-largest sugar producer after
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/south-africa/> South Africa, according to the
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/food-and-agriculture-organization/> Food and
Agriculture Organization.
In meetings between Mursi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn,
the Egyptian leader was "only interested in constructive engagement,"
according to Hailemariam's spokesman, Getachew Reda. That contrasts with
antagonism in the past, he said in a phone interview.
"Egypt will lose the upper hand if they decide to opt out from cooperating
as the upstream countries will go ahead with their industrial revolutions
with or without Egypt," said Ana Cascao at the Stockholm International Water
Institute. "The best way for Egypt to secure the water it needs in the long
term is by entering into a new era of cooperation."
Power Lines
Mursi and Hailemariam met at an African Union summit last month in
Ethiopia's capital, <
http://topics.bloomberg.com/addis-ababa/> Addis Ababa,
where Mursi suggested Egypt may fund a transmission line from the dam,
Getachew said. Ethiopia plans to sell 2,000 megawatts of power to Egypt by
2020.
"With the coming to power of President Mursi there is a changing dynamic,"
he said on June 9. "They would rather benefit from the dam."
Egypt's foreign minister arrives in Ethiopia today to engage in more
"constructive dialog," Egyptian Ambassador to Ethiopia Mohamed Edrees said
in a phone interview on June 12. "We are working to find a mutually agreed
way forward."
Mursi's comments to his supporters may be aimed at deflecting domestic
criticism, said Nadia Ahidjo, a Nairobi-based analyst at advisory group
africapractice. Opposition groups plan to hold mass rallies on June 30, a
year after Mursi was sworn in as Egypt's first democratically elected
civilian president, in a bid to remove him from office and trigger new
elections.
Domestic Constraint
The instability constrains Mursi from rallying support for his position on
the dam, said Ahidjo. "When you don't have domestic support it's very
difficult to embark on a regional agenda," she said.
The Nile discharges about 85 billion cubic meters (3 trillion cubic feet) of
water annually, according to Austin, Texas-based, Stratfor Inc., which is
enough to fill almost 2.5 Hoover Dams.
Under a 1959 quota agreement between Egypt and
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/sudan/> Sudan that excluded other nations in
the Nile Basin, Egypt was given 55.5 billion cubic meters a year and Sudan
18.5 billion cubic meters, the Texas-based consulting firm said in a May 28
note sent by e-mail. The rest evaporates.
Egypt's requirement for an additional 21 billion cubic meters by 2050 for
its growing population will mean there is "little water to spare," Stratfor
said. An equitable distribution of water based on needs and resources may
give Egypt about 50 billion cubic meters, according to Cascao.
Significant Potential
The dam, 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the Sudanese border, may allow Sudan
to boost its agriculture output by using the regulated outflow of the dam
for irrigation, Cascao said. "It increases the irrigation potential
significantly" from three months to 12 months, she said.
Sudan backs Ethiopia's dam, which will "bring many benefits and blessings
for us," Information Minister Ahmed Bilal Osman told reporters in the
capital, Khartoum, on June 9.
While Ethiopia is open to discussions about technical aspects of the dam
with its neighbors, such as how long it will take to fill the 74 billion
cubic-meter reservoir, it's unwilling to halt or downsize a key project,
Water and Energy Minister Alemayehu Tegenu said in a June 11 phone
interview.
Egypt's best option is to sign a cooperation agreement already agreed to by
Ethiopia and six riparian nations, including Uganda and
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/kenya/> Kenya, said Debay Tadesse, a regional
analyst at the Institute for
<
http://topics.bloomberg.com/security-studies/> Security Studies in Addis
Ababa. The accord, known as the Cooperative Framework Agreement, has
previously been rejected by Egypt and Sudan. Once it's ratified by
legislatures in six out of 10 nations in the Nile Basin, a commission will
be created to oversee projects on the river.
Sudan Agreed
Sudan has already said it wants to sign the CFA, according to Cascao.
Signing up to the agreement would ensure Egypt has a means to protect its
water rights as growing upstream nations increasingly look to use the river,
Debay said.
"According to the CFA, if they exceed allocated water then Egypt can take
legal action," he said. "Without signing the document it will be virtually
impossible to do that. The solution is cooperation."
Received on Tue Jun 18 2013 - 23:36:42 EDT