Fears Grow Over Yemenis' Ties to Iran
By MARIA ABI-HABIB<
http://online.wsj.com/search/term.html?KEYWORDS=MARIA+ABI-HABIB&bylinesearch=true>
SAN'A, Yemen - Iran is taking advantage of the confusion surrounding Yemen's
transition of government to gain a new foothold in the country, Yemeni and
Western officials say, as Tehran seeks military allies operating near one
of the world's most strategic waterways for oil shipments.
Iran is training militants who are aligned with a separatist movement
in southern Yemen, while Iran's Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, is providing
some funding and media training to the group, people familiar with the
situation say. Iran has also directed arms, including heat-seeking
missiles, toward these militants, Yemeni and Western officials say, citing
intelligence reports.
The outreach comes as Tehran has sought to bolster its influence in a
region reshaped by two years of uprisings. A tie to Yemeni militants could
provide Iran with a strategic pressure point - one akin to its alliance with
Hezbollah in Lebanon, just across the border from Tehran's avowed enemy
Israel.
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An expanded roster of Yemen-based allies would give Tehran a lever against
the U.S., which relies on Yemen's government as both a hedge against Iran
and a partner against al Qaeda-linked militants in Yemen. Iran could also
turn to clients in Yemen as Syria's war poses an existential threat to one
of Tehran's biggest regional allies, the Damascus government of President
Bashar al-Assad.
"If the south of Yemen were to break away and become an ally of the
Iranians, it would be a major strategic gain for Tehran," said Bruce
Riedel, a senior fellow and director of the Brookings' Intelligence
Project, part of the Brookings' Institute. "It might more than compensate
for the loss of Syria if Assad's government falls."
Iran didn't respond to several requests to comment to its United Nations
mission. Hassan Rohani's recent election as Iran's president isn't expected
to affect Iran's policies toward proxy groups such as Hezbollah, as such
relationships are overseen by elite units of Iran's Republican Guard, under
the control of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Tehran's latest overtures, according to the Western and Yemeni officials,
are directed at members of Hirak - a political movement that seeks to divide
Yemen along the southern and northern states that existed before they
unified in 1990. While Hirak is made up primarily of Sunnis, it finds
common cause with the Shiite Tehran in opposing Yemen's government in
San'a. Iran has worked to militarize elements within Hirak for nearly two
years, these officials say.
Hirak's power base is a geopolitically strategic territory in southern
Yemen that lies alongside part of Bab al Mandab, a narrow strait traveled
by many giant oil tankers bound for the U.S. and Europe. Bab al
Mandab - Arabic for Gate of Grief - is so named for the treacherous journey
through waters just 18 miles wide at points.
Security is a concern at Bab al Mandab, which stands, along with the Suez
Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world's major oil-supply
choke points. Yemen's national security forces and its coast guard have
been strained since the country's revolution took root in 2011.
Some Western officials worry that Iran could use military allies along Bab
al Mandab to disrupt shipping there, as it has attempted to do along its
own coast on the Strait of Hormuz. Together, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab
al Mandab are conduits for 22% of the world's oil supply, according to the
U.S. Energy Information Administration.
"If the Iranians are able to control Bab al Mandab and the Strait of
Hormuz, they'd be able to have a chokehold on the global economy," a
Western diplomat in San'a said.
Iran's moves in Yemen would represent a new challenge to the U.S., which in
recent years has multiplied its financial support for Yemen's impoverished
government in San'a. Last year, the U.S. provided $350 million to San'a,
according to the Congressional Research Service, up from roughly $26
million in 2008.
About half of the aid is in the form of military assistance, U.S. officials
say.Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have increased as Washington has
boosted sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. Iran threatened to cut
shipping passage in the Strait of Hormuz last year as the European Union
and U.S. proposed sanctions targeting Iran's oil industry and central bank.
Those sanctions helped cut Iranian oil exports to a 26-year low. U.S.
Congress is considering further sanctions that would further target Iran's
ailing oil industry - reducing its exports to 200,000 barrels of oil per day,
down from the roughly 1.2 million barrels a day it currently exports.
With its own exports, which also go through the Strait of Hormuz, falling
dramatically, Iran may be less hesitant to target shipping lanes, say some
officials. "With the new bill, they'd have nothing to lose," said a Western
official familiar with oil security
Iran's recent threats to shipping have appeared to be little more than
saber-rattling. But Tehran has used its navy as an instrument of
intimidation in the Strait of Hormuz for two decades, including strikes
against vessels in the area in the late 1980s. At Bab al Mandab, even
rocket-propelled grenades, notorious for their poor aim, could heighten
fear that could drive some oil tankers away, said Mr. Riedel and the
Western official.
In January, Yemeni security forces seized a boat packed with arms,
explosives and antiaircraft missiles that local security officials say
included Chinese heat-seeking missiles.
A Yemeni investigation concluded that "these weapons were loaded onto [a]
vessel in Iran and were intended for armed insurgents," the U.S. State
Department said in a February statement. The arms are the most
sophisticated to be intercepted en route to Yemen.
Citing intelligence reports, the Yemeni and Western officials said they
suspect the arms were bound for Hirak as well as the Houthis, a militant
movement in Yemen's north that has long-standing ties to Iran.
Yemeni officials say they have recently seen more sophisticated weapons
reach the Houthis, such as rocket-propelled grenades. But the January
attempt to arm the Houthis and Hirak, they say, would have introduced
surface-to-air missiles to down aircraft flying above the Arabian Peninsula
and allowed the groups to create powerful homemade bombs, both new
capabilities.
"Yes, most Yemenis are armed, but with Kalashnikovs. But surface-to-air
missiles and antitank mines Yemenis [citizens] don't have," said Ali Mohsen
al Ahmar, a senior defense adviser to Yemen's president. "These
sophisticated weapons are only in the hands of the Houthis and Hirak."
Officials for both groups, while not addressing the alleged arms shipment,
said some elements of their groups had chosen to arm themselves out of
frustration with San'a.
The Houthis and Hirak have sent hundreds of fighters to Iran for training,
Mr. Ahmar added.
Hirak officials admit their movement is fracturing as its leaders focus on
gaining independence through referendums while some armed factions turn to
Iran to arm themselves for the struggle. Militants seeking training in Iran
are acting on their own, these Hirak leaders say.
"Some Hiraki youth have gone to Iran for training. They got tired of our
promises and sought the funds and training to fight the northern
occupation," said Qassem Askar, Hirak's secretary-general. "And senior
leaders [from Hirak] went to the Houthis for weapons about a year ago, and
we warned them to stop."
Hezbollah has also provided some funding to Hirak's leadership and given
media training for Hirak's antigovernment TV station, Aden Live, which is
broadcast into Yemen from Beirut, said Mr. Askar.
Hirak's point man for this cooperation is the former president of South
Yemen, Ali Salim al Beidh, according to Western and Yemeni officials. Based
in a Hezbollah-stronghold of Beirut, Mr. al Beidh fled Yemen after
launching a failed secession attempt in 1994, resulting in civil war.
Mr. al Beidh denied that he serves such a role or that there is any
military collaboration between leaders of Hirak, Iran and Hezbollah.
Mr. Askar said he met Iranian, Hezbollah and Houthi leaders in Beirut last
year while visiting Mr. al Beidh, in talks hosted by Hezbollah. But shortly
after, when asked whether those talks addressed military cooperation, Mr.
Askar denied the meeting had taken place.
A Hezbollah spokesman didn't respond to requests for comment.
Iran, meanwhile, is also deepening its ties with the Houthis, a Shiite
insurgency based in northern Yemen. According to Western and Yemeni
officials, the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is enlisting
Hezbollah to foster Houthi armed factions.
"The Iranian Revolutionary Guards oversee the training [of Houthis] in
southern Lebanon and manages and organizes the training by Hezbollah,"
Yemen's Minister of Information, Ali Ahmed al Amrani, said in an interview,
an assessment shared by Mr. Mohsen, the presidential defense adviser.
Hezbollah has also sent military trainers to Yemen to support the Houthis,
the Western diplomat in San'a said.
Ahmed Bahri, a leader of the Haq party, which represents the Houthis, says
he has traveled to Beirut to meet with Hezbollah officials and Hirak
leaders as recently as December and was planning another trip in "a few
weeks."
He said the Houthis, like Hirak, have turned to Iran only after Yemen's
government ignored their grievances.
"We are protecting our interests. The former [Yemeni] regime is the one
that forced Houthis and Hirak to take up arms. They are the ones that
forced the Houthis to Iran and Hezbollah… that forced us to look for
another backbone," he said in an interview in his home between mouthfuls of
qat, a mild stimulant widely used in Yemen.
This month, the Yemeni government returned the remains of Hussein al
Houthi, the founder of the Houthi movement, to his family, as a goodwill
gesture in a bid to revive national reconciliation talks. Mr. al Houthi was
killed by government forces in 2004 and his remains were buried in San'a to
prevent them from becoming a shrine for the movement.
At this month's burial, Houthi supporters wore the uniform of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards, seen as a brazen antigovernment message that spooked
some officials in San'a.
Iran is also working with the Houthis to bolster its support for Mr. Assad,
according to Houthi leaders, who said its supporters are signing up and
making the journey to fight alongside government forces in Syria.
Iran's activities may also figure into the current civil war in Syria,
where Mr. Assad, a close Iranian ally, has made recent strategic gains but
remains under heavy pressure.
"Iran could use Hirak and Houthis to fall back on Yemen if Syria no longer
is available to them. Syria is strategically much more important to the
Iranians," said the Western diplomat. "But any port in a storm."
Received on Wed Jun 19 2013 - 11:25:18 EDT