Ethiopia's plans for the Nile are emblematic of global water woes
10 July 2013 | By <
http://www.breakingviews.com/antony-currie/2300.bio>
Antony Currie, <
http://www.breakingviews.com/martin-hutchinson/2292.bio>
Martin Hutchinson
Ethiopia's plans for the Nile are emblematic of global water woes. The
country is building a dam across the river so that it can become a regional
leader in exporting hydroelectric power. That looks at odds with a recent
IMF report calling for greater competition in the economy. The project has
also angered Egypt - a sentiment likely to be shared by whichever party ends
up in power.
Obscured by the rhetoric over the Nile, though, are broader, longer-term
concerns about how nations can sensibly grow their economies when water's
either a scarce or shared resource.
In the Nile Basin, it's both. Though considered the longest river in the
world, the Nile discharges less water than 50 others around the globe,
barely topping America's Missouri in that regard. Yet it and its tributaries
flow through 11 countries with a total population of 437 million that's
growing fast. Egypt and Sudan, at the end of the river's course, claim
rights over much of the water under a 1959 treaty. Several upstream states,
however, have made noises about challenging that arrangement in order to
help modernize their agriculture, industry and power supplies.
Water is essential to each of these sectors. Extracting one gigajoule of
energy from oil requires more than one cubic meter of water, according to
the World Energy Council. Oil sands require up to four times that much, and
digging for shale gas 10 times. Meanwhile, as countries become more
affluent, their eating habits can change. China's pork consumption, for
example, has doubled since 1990, according to the U.S. Department of
Agriculture. Rearing pigs consumes five times - and cows 17 times - more
water than growing maize, UNESCO reports.
Population growth is another factor to consider. While the United Nations
expects a 14 percent rise globally by 2030, the OECD reckons the number of
people living with severe water shortages will increase by a third, to 3.9
billion.
All this supports a measured, cooperative and long-term approach to water
use. But national pride or angst often get in the way. That's the case along
the Nile. Egyptians are worried the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will
mean less water flowing downstream. Evaporation and leaks alone could reduce
the amount by 15 percent, based on experience at Egypt's Aswan High Dam.
Currently, Egypt has none to spare. The Nile provides 98 percent of the
fresh water Egyptians consume, former Prime Minister Hisham Kandil told CNN
in May. Meanwhile, the nation's population is expected to grow about 25
percent by 2030. After millennia of relying on the river, Egyptian
officials' offhand remarks about considering military action in response to
Ethiopia's plans might not be a surprise. But any such moves could provoke
retaliation, including against the Aswan High Dam, and anger China, which is
helping finance Ethiopia's project.
Building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam seems rational, at least on the
surface. The landlocked country's economy and population are growing
quickly, but only one fifth of its citizens are connected to a reliable
electricity supply. The dam's proposed 6,000-megawatt output would satisfy
Ethiopia's current electricity consumption four times over.
But the $4.7 billion construction cost is huge - some 77 percent of the
country's annual tax revenue. Ethiopia is also paying for most of the
project itself, despite having only limited access to capital. That appears
to fly in the face of a statement last week by the IMF on the country's
economy calling for more private enterprise and competition and less
government spending.
And Addis Ababa is already building plenty of dams elsewhere to fill
domestic needs. So the plan is to export pretty much all the electricity
from Grand Ethiopian Renaissance, for dollars or even oil. The major market
would probably be Sudan, whose border is 15 miles from the construction
site. Yet that state is already building its own dams.
There are lots of ways to grow an economy other than grandiose projects that
risk provoking powerful neighbors. Allowing private land ownership would
help, as would promoting small private enterprises.
Longer term, Ethiopia, Egypt and the other countries along the Nile need to
work together to make the most of the river. Using water more efficiently in
agriculture and even finding ways to reduce the birth rate would help,
according to the Signet Institute, a Cairo-based research group. Building
better sewage systems, increasing waste-water recycling and desalinating
water are possibilities, but they're costly.
Attempts to charge market rates for water are also problematic. Civil unrest
forced Egypt to drop proposed cuts to its roughly two-thirds subsidy of
water consumption costs. Sadly, such challenges are common the world over.
Received on Wed Jul 10 2013 - 23:17:27 EDT