Kiir flexes muscles but risks splitting South Sudan
By Andrew Green
JUBA | Thu Jul 25, 2013 2:48pm EDT
(Reuters) - South Sudan's President Salva Kiir has asserted his power by
firing his biggest political rivals along with his entire cabinet, but he
risks splitting the African oil producer at a time of new tensions with
civil war foe Sudan.
On Tuesday, Kiir removed Vice President Riek Machar and top negotiator Pagan
Amum, senior officials in the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement
(SPLM) who had indicated they would challenge him as party frontrunner for
elections in 2015.
Analysts said Kiir acted to end increasing infighting inside the party,
which led the country to independence in 2011 after a peace deal that had
ended one of Africa's longest civil wars fought with Khartoum.
Rivalry inside the SPLM has hampered its government at a time of a new
confrontation with Sudan over oil flows and frustration among ordinary
people who have been waiting for a development "peace dividend" after the
2005 end of the war.
Despite earning more than $10 billion from oil sales since then, the
government has built no new hospitals or power stations, while rural areas
lack the most basic services.
But Kiir's dismissal of the two rivals and his entire cabinet threatens a
shaky consensus among rival tribes and militia leaders dominating the
country the size of <
http://www.reuters.com/places/france> France.
"If the current power struggle within the SPLM continues unabated, it is
certainly bound to have far-reaching consequences," the Sudd Institute, a
local think tank, said.
"This could include a possible party split, state failure, or a remote
chance of emergence of a genuine multi-party democracy," it added in a
report.
With institutions still weak, the fissures in the party could follow ethnic
lines and lead to a new civil war in a worst-case scenario, the Institute
warned.
Stability in South Sudan is not only vital for crude buyers in
<
http://www.reuters.com/places/china> China, India and Malaysia but also for
east African neighbors such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda which were swamped
with refugees during the decades of civil war.
SOLDIERS CHOSEN OVER TECHNOCRATS
Kiir had presided over a cabinet of 29 ministers and one of the world's
biggest parliaments, made up of fellow bush commanders and tribal leaders.
Some of these had been fighting each other during the civil war when Sudan
paid rivals to divide its southern enemy.
He managed to keep powerful ministers with their own militias on his side by
looking the other way over corruption, despite a public promise to recover
$4 billion in funds allegedly "stolen" from the Treasury by government
officials.
Kiir, a no-nonsense army man most comfortable in the field, chose militia
commanders for their loyalty over technocrats, although the latter would
have been more suitable in helping to build up state institutions.
But after a 16-month oil shutdown and the prospect of Sudan again blocking
crude sales from the landlocked southern nation, government money is running
short - and so is aid donors' patience.
In the past few months, authorities managed to pay civil servants only
thanks to loans from the United States and the European Union, with
unofficial conditions attached relating to improved governance, diplomats
say.
In a first step, Kiir decided to cut the number of ministries to 19 in his
future lineup which he has yet to name.
"The transition from liberation to governing has proven quite challenging,"
said Biong Deng Kuol, a fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. He
recommended that the president bring in new, competent technocrats to form a
new cabinet.
However, spending less on patronage such as official Land Cruisers - every
senior official is entitled to two of the vehicles - might fuel dissent
inside his party, exacerbating a trend in the past few months when some
state governors turned against Kiir.
EYES ON THE ARMY
Neither Machar nor Amum, who belong to different tribes from Kiir's dominant
Dinka, have said what they plan to do next.
In a new sign of tensions, Kiir ordered Amum not to leave the capital, Juba,
or make any comments while being investigated for "his deliberate endeavor
to create unnecessary divisions" in the SPLM, state radio said on Thursday.
Much will depend on the reaction of the army, which consumes at least 60
percent of the state budget and is the power broker in the SPLM.
Analysts say Sudan has been fuelling dissent by supporting rebels led by
David Yau Yau, who is fighting the army in South Sudan's Jonglei state. This
has hindered plans to search for oil there and enraged SPLM hardliners who
want to arm Sudanese rebels battling the Khartoum government.
Others, like Kiir, would prefer negotiation to end conflict with Khartoum
over disputed territory. "Salva is by nature a conciliator and wants the
South to get on with becoming a nation," said Eric Reeves, a U.S.-based
Sudan activist.
Before the announcement on Amum, life had been getting back to normal in
Juba. Soldiers beefed up security at Kiir's presidential office and major
ministries but U.N. staff have gone back to work after being initially
advised to stay at home.
Top security officials went on state radio to calm people. "If you are one
of these who enjoy themselves with a glass of wine or beer or anything that
makes you happy or having fun somewhere after working hours at bars or
anywhere you usually go, please continue to do so," one radio announcement
said.
But locals remain wary. "People are getting scared," said Paul Mandela, a
motorcycle taxi driver.
(Writing by Ulf Laessing; Editing by Pascal Fletcher and David Stamp)
Received on Fri Jul 26 2013 - 12:32:11 EDT