East Africa: A Gathering Swarm - Could Locusts Escalate Tensions Between the
Sudans?
By George Richards, 9 September 20
Analysis
Sudan could be liable for environmental damage to South Sudan if it fails to
tackle its locust problem.
Whether it is disagreements over oil fees, disputes over borderlands, or
accusations of fuelling rebel groups in each other's territory, there is no
shortage of tensions between Sudan and South Sudan.
The rhetoric from both sides of the divide is often barbed, and relations
between political figures in the two countries are ever heated and
precarious.
However, below the radar and far away from the corridors of power and
high-level meeting rooms, there is another group of much smaller and humbler
actors that may end up being central to even further tensions between the
Sudans.
Swarming pests
Last week, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)
<
http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/common/ecg/562/en/DL419e.pdf> announced an
expected increase in the numbers of locusts in Sudan in the coming months.
This follows the migration earlier in the year by vast numbers of locusts,
who move from their springtime breeding grounds in the deserts of Egypt and
the Arabian Peninsula to their summer breeding grounds in the plains of the
Sudans.
During this annual migration, locusts are driven into swarms and can
<
http://www.biology-resources.com/locust-01.html> fly hundreds of kilometres
a day to new regions, posing a huge threat to crops along the way. Each
locust can eat its own body weight in vegetation a day, and a swarm can
easily tear through a valley of farms leaving no greenery behind.
This year, unusually heavy August rains left vegetation damp, inhibiting
locusts' breeding patterns and keeping locust numbers in the Sudan low. But
as the vegetation dries out this autumn, the FAO predicts bands of locusts
will start to gather again.
The control of locust populations requires a consistent and thorough
approach, and is best carried out at the national rather than local level.
Such is the speed and range of locusts that a localised response alone can
prove sorely insufficient.
Typically, Sudan has had a good track record of containing the effects and
potential crop damage caused by these annual locust swarms. But some fear
that with Sudan's resources stretched, and little incentive to stop locusts
drifting southward across the border, there is a growing risk that the
locusts hatching on Sudan's Red Sea coast could end up destroying crops on
South Sudanese farms.
Indeed, Sudan's relationship with the
<
http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/common/ecg/1344/en/EMPRESbrochureE.pdf>
Locust and Other Migratory Pests Group - an agency within the FAO which
partners with government authorities to bring international expertise and
resources to help tackle locusts - has been strained recently.
This March, officials in the Sudanese agriculture ministry
<
http://www.alsahafasd.net/details.php?articleid=56497> accused the FAO of
espionage, claiming they replaced an anti-locust instrument with a "spy
device".
In the same month, the agriculture minister
<
http://news.sudanvisiondaily.com/details.html?rsnpid=220645> declared the
country free of locusts, only to be contradicted a month later by the FAO
which claimed to have
<
http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/archives/briefs/1810/2053/index.html>
identified a 1,000 kilometre-long hatching ground in Sudan's northern
provinces. The FAO did, however, also
<
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/emergencies/docs/ENG%20FAO%20March
%202013%20Newsletter.pdf> acknowledge the Sudanese government's urgent
response to the findings.
The issue came to a head in June when the agriculture ministry
<
http://www.sudaneseonline.com/news/6927-sudan-protests-against-failure-of-r
egional-office-of-fao-to-support-the-country-in-the-face-of-the-invasion-of-
swarms.html> filed a formal protest against the FAO's regional office for
failing to lend sufficient support, despite the FAO directing
<
http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/OCHA_Sudan_Weekly_
Humanitarian_Bulletin_Issue_14_%281-7_Apr_2013%29.pdf> $1 million in aid to
assist the Sudanese government in its anti-locust efforts.
Stretched thin
The challenge in dealing with Sudan's locust problem has been exacerbated by
the conflict in the border regions with South Sudan, and by the steady
decline in law and order in southern and eastern Sudan, an area that maps
almost directly onto the main locust breeding grounds. The Tokar delta on
the Red Sea, just north of Eritrea, is one of the
<
http://www.climate-charts.com/Locations/s/SU62671.php> hottest and driest
places in the world and a particular hotspot for the pests.
Locusts can breed quickly and in vast numbers when unhindered by efforts to
control them and it is no coincidence that most warnings
<
http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/archives/briefs/1810/1932/index.html>
issued by the Locust and Other Migratory Pests Group in 2012 were directed
at conflict-affected areas.
For example, in Libya, just a year after the 2011 civil war, a locust
<
http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/archives/archive/1823/1935/index.html>
outbreak was traced to the lawless southwestern border region with Algeria
and the Sahel. Meanwhile in Mali, amidst conflict in the north and
instability in the capital, the FAO warned of the worst locust infestation
since 2005, afflicting not only Mali, but also Chad and Niger.
A locust swarm on the horizon
If Sudan fails to deal with a locust population that goes on to devastate
South Sudanese agriculture, tensions between the two countries could
escalate even further, adding locusts to the lists of grievances.
However, if certain trends in international law debates are anything to go
by, it is also possible that if Sudan's failure to take action directly adds
to the environmental damage in South Sudan, the newly-independent country
could instead seek legal redress.
Although the framework for holding environmental crimes to account is by no
means fully developed, there are signs that international law may begin to
take a sterner stance towards perpetrators of environmental destruction.
Various campaigners have urged the International Criminal Court to adopt the
crime of " <
http://eradicatingecocide.com/overview/ecocide-act/> ecocide" as
the fifth core crime under its jurisdiction, to accompany genocide, war
crimes, crimes against humanity and aggression.
There is also a discernible trend in international law towards bringing
environmental threats within the definition of an "act of aggression". For
example, the <
http://www.icrc.org/ihl/INTRO/460> 1977 ENMOD convention
prohibits the destruction of the environment for hostile purposes.
Meanwhile
<
http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/RESOLUTION/GEN/NR0/596/23/IMG/NR059623.pdf
?OpenElement> under Resolution 687 (1991), which implemented a ceasefire in
the First Gulf War, the UN Security Council held Iraq liable for losses
arising from its burning of oil wells and spilling of oil into the Persian
Gulf during the Iraqi retreat from Kuwait. The Security Council did not cite
the 1977 ENMOD convention - Iraq was not a signatory - but nonetheless held
Iraq liable.
Of course, one of the major differences between the Iraqi case and the
potential Sudanese situation is that Sudan's sin would be one of omission
rather than commission.
But again, if certain trends in international law persist, the simple
refusal to act against environmental damage could be enough, in a similar
way to which failing to act against terrorism can be punished.
Though it is still a way away, the changing international legal landscape
could one day mean that South Sudan - suffering environmental destruction
wrought by locusts from Sudan - would have grounds on which to bring charges
against its northern neighbour.
Indeed, while the world focuses on oil and arms in the Sudans, it could be a
small insect - albeit in vast numbers - that tips the balance from
precarious peace to more explicit aggression.
George is an associate at Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer and an advocate at
the Asylum Support Appeals Project. He has written for several publications
before, including Jadaliyya, Al-Ahram Weekly, MEED and Daily News Egypt.
Received on Mon Sep 09 2013 - 20:57:30 EDT