Over the past couple of years, the al-Qaeda-affiliated group al-Shabab has
tried to present itself to the outside world as a strong cohesive movement
whose members are united for one cause.
However, the latest events of the internal and ongoing conflict among its
leaders have shown otherwise. On June 26 the world woke to the news that the
leader of the group, Ahmed Abdi Godane, ordered the execution of his four
top commanders including two of the co-founders al-Alfghani and Burhan.
Other top leaders fled for their dear lives and sixteen others were put
under arrest in Barowe, one of al-Shabab's remaining strongholds, 250km
south of Mogadishu. Godane, the emir of al-Shabab, also known as Mukhtar Abu
Zubayr, accused his longtime colleagues of insubordination and standing
against the unity of the movement.
Abdulaziz Abu Musab, al-Shabab spokesman, told the media that these leaders
disobeyed the orders and tried to divide the group by issuing statements
contrary to the Shabab position endangering the cohesion of the movement.
"There came out some of Mujahedeen individuals and leaders who stood up to
disintegrate the Mujahedeen, who are against the unity of the Mujahedeen.
They were noticed and told that the unity of the Muslims is Allah's order,"
Musab said.
He added: "We have informed their widows of their deaths, as they must now
wear the clothes of mourning."
The senior leaders of the group including those killed, accused their leader
(Godane) of a brutal and un-Islamic style of leadership
"Godane has grown tyrannical and close-minded and strayed from the true path
of jihad," al-Afghani is quoted as having said before he was executed.
Al-Afghani has been a fierce critic of Godane's leadership and was looked at
as a suitable replacement for the top job in the group according to one
analyst who has been following the trends in al-Shabab. The killing of top
leaders exposes the grave wrangles that have plagued al-Shabab for a while
though this has always been denied by the group's official spokesmen.
The Alabama-born Omar Hamami, commonly referred to as Al Amriki or "the
American", was the first person to expose the divisions within the group.
He accused its leaders of mistrust of foreigners and weak allegiance to the
cause of jihad.
Before parting ways with the group late last year, he accused the group's
leader of recklessness caused by ignorance and manipulating legal concepts
for political ends to advance personal goals that have nothing to do with
God's law, of mistreating foreign jihadists and attempting to assassinate
him.
In one of his sarcastic tweets he said: "Abu Zubayr [Godane] has gone mad.
He is starting a civil war, in his own group."
According to media reports, the wrangle in the top leadership of the
al-Shabab reached irreconcilable level when in April 2013, a letter
criticizing Godane for his leadership style was circulated on extremist
websites reportedly authoured by Al-Afghani to al-Qaeda leader Ayman
Al-Zawahiri.
In the letter, Al-Afghani claimed to be speaking on behalf of what he called
"the silent majority" of members, decried the deterioration of al-Shabab as
a power to contend with in the war in Somalia. He attributed this state of
affairs to the personal conduct and dictatorial leadership of Godane.
In the letter, Al-Afghani also lamented that al-Shabab had lost ground, as
well as the sympathies and support of the local population because of the
militant leadership's arrogance and draconian methods.
Divisions:
A number of events in recent days have exposed the escalating showdown in
the top ranks of al-Shabab, and points to a future mired in conflict. Former
BBC Somali service editor, Yusuf Garaad, believes al-Shabab is at its
weakest ever.
"I believe al-Shabab is weakened by the division within its ranks... ", he
said.
After the political, military and financial decline of al-Shabab, leaders of
the group started to exchange accusations, trading reasons about who was
responsible for the decline. Talking to a Somali news website Sabahi, Hassan
Abdullahi, a political analyst who monitors the affairs of Islamist
movements in Somalia, said the letters by Al-Afghani and the current power
showdown are a sign of deep divisions among the group's leadership.
"Indeed, there is a real dilemma among the group's leadership, it has become
clear that the differences are not only between Godane and Abu Mansur (Al
-Afghani) as it has been always portrayed but also include other top leaders
in the group both al-Shabab Somalis and foreigners alike," Abdullahi noted.
Now the disgruntlement in the top leadership of al-Shabaab has gone very
deep. It is not just a disagreement over strategy or mere differences of
opinion but a grave stage of outright altercation, power struggle and
eliminations.
These have reached a point the analysts see as irreconcilable. According to
Abdullahi, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the group has now
entered the stage of internal corrosion.
Godane, aged 36, claimed to have ordered and perpetuated the July 11, 2010
bombings in Kampala that killed 74 people. He is one of the most radical
supporters of global jihad. Godane is one of the most wanted terrorists in
the world with a $7 million reward for his arrest.
In 2011, he issued a jihadist video titled, At your service, Osama. In it,
he urged all Somalis to follow the al-Qaeda leader, and vowed that "the wars
will not end until Sharia is implemented in all continents in the world."
Educated in Pakistan and reportedly trained in Afghanistan, Godane has
sought to crush or eliminate any challengers to his leadership and ordered
his Amniyat (intelligence team) to hunt and kill whoever is against his
leadership regardless of whether he is al- Shabab or not.
According to analysts, the killings of top commanders may be a signal of
Godane's decisive and radical move to sweep away opposition to his
leadership. It might also trigger a push to a more extreme engagement in the
struggle for jihad and the struggle to topple the Somali government.
Garaad thinks that Godane's move to eliminate his challengers cannot be
sustained in the long term.
"Godane may enjoy a free hand for his operations in the near future but he
will not be able to survive and operate in southern Somalia without [the
support of] big names from local clans. My assumptions are based on the open
source and my knowledge of clans and the support armed groups need from
local populations," Garaad said.
Al-Shabab's former spiritual leader Mukhtar Robow Ali aka Abu Mansuur
together with Sheik Hassan Dihir Aweys were forced to flee from the group.
Robow is reportedly now in the Bakol region where his Rahanweyn clan is
based and Awey is now under government detention after he was captured
trying to flee.
According to the South African-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS),
the rumblings in the group might not make it stronger but could make it
difficult to ensure total peace in Somalia. Hussein Mohamed, a
Mogadishu-based political analyst, predicted that these events would lead to
further dissent within al-Shabab's ranks and that a splinter group would
emerge in the near future.
However, the confidential UN report, by the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia
and Eritrea, contends that al-Shabab remains the principal threat to peace
and security in Somali even though its operational capabilities have been
dented.
"The military strength of al-Shabab, despite the losses, remains arguably
intact, in terms of operational readiness, chain of command, discipline, and
communication capabilities," it noted.