Westgate attack demonstrates Kenya's continuing 'Somalia problem'
- By Magnus Taylor
Posted on
<
http://africanarguments.org/2013/09/23/westgate-attack-demonstrates-kenyas-
continuing-somalia-problem-by-magnus-taylor/> September 25, 2013
Most visitors who have spent any length of time in Nairobi have been to the
Westgate Centre. This US-style mall complex, situated in the wealthy
Westlands region of the city, has profited in recent years from the
plentiful expat and middle class Kenyan shilling. However, it's not a place
I have much love for - the clear delineation of Nairobi's haves and
have-nots is marked out by the rich folk who enter up its steps and the poor
street-hawkers who hang about in the parking lot and try to sell you stuff.
However, I can't deny that during trips to the city I become part of this
dynamic and, like most, I've spent time in the air-conditioned comfort of
Art Cafe (a posh Nairobi chain of coffee shops) using the free wifi and,
when I was there during March's general election, filing a couple of pieces.
That such a violent and abhorrent act should take place in Westgate was no
accident - it was carefully chosen by people who knew how they could have
the greatest impact on Kenya and get the most coverage internationally:
strike where the rich and the foreign hang out.
This is a place that symbolises the country's confident new wealth: The
growing economy, the two-fingers-to-the-west election of ICC-indicted Uhuru
Kenyatta, the evident, but incomplete, 'Africa rising' narrative. But it
also demonstrates the extent of the Somalia-shaped problem Kenya has on its
doorstep.
For the first time in its history Kenya has an occupying military force in
another country. When its troops crossed the Somali border in 2011, and
eventually took Kismayo earlier this year, the feeling was that this
assertive change in foreign policy was going to cause some kind of reaction.
Abdullahi Boru Halake, a Kenyan political analyst says that "Nairobi has
been in the crosshairs of Al Shabaab since Kenyan forces intervened in
Somalia October 2011. We had closely contested elections and the ongoing ICC
cases that took much of the attention. In a way, up to this time, we have
dodged bullets/bombs."
Stig Jarle Hansen, author of
<
http://africanarguments.org/2013/04/25/review-al-shabaab-in-somalia-the-his
tory-and-ideology-of-a-militant-islamist-group-2005-%E2%80%93-2012-%E2%80%93
-by-magnus-taylor/> Al Shabaab in Somalia, states that rumours of Al
Shabaab's demise have always been greatly exaggerated: "Shabaab has lost
teritory and has faced a conflict over Omar Hamami, but it is better than
ever in conducting terrorist attacks.conventional means are more exhausted."
Indeed, up until now Nairobi seemed to have got off fairly lightly with a
few grenade attacks (generally on bars), which one Kenyan journalist
speculated to me was, in part, a sign of local business disputes, rather
than Islamic militancy. There was also a nasty matatu bombing in Eastleigh,
the predominantly Somali district of the city. Eastleigh has also suffered
from a police crackdown on its population, who have for many years been
distrusted by other Kenyans, both for their connection to the crime and
warlordism of Somalia, but also for their success in business.
A noticeable security increase in shops was the most obvious consequence of
the Kenyan invasion whilst Al Shabaab has continually asserted that they
would drive the occupiers into the sea. But the efficacy of placing a few
more guards with metal detectors on the doors seemed debatable. This would
be unlikely to deter a really determined attacker, as Westgate now seems to
show.
The eastern Somali region of the country was more obviously affected, with a
number of attacks taking place near the border, particularly in the town of
Garissa, which included a mass shooting at a church in July 2012 that killed
15 people. In the understandable drama of the last 2 days (which exceeds
anything Kenya has experienced since the US embassy bombing in 1998) we
should not forget these lower-profile killings.
Kenya has a genuine security problem with Somalia which is unlikely to be
addressed by the withdrawal of Kenyan forces from the country. Hallake,
again, describes the Westgate attack as being "a case of a systemic
intelligence failure which is a function of intelligence aligning itself
with politics rather than being a professional outfit. the case for an
enhanced and deepened security sector reform has never been this urgent."
Stig Hansen says that Kenya is "not even close" to disrupting Shabaab's
capacity to carry out sophisticated attacks of this nature.
To fight this threat Kenya is going to need more international support with
its intelligence and counter-terrorism strategy. This is something western
countries are well-qualified and capable of providing. No one wants East
Africa's most important city to descend further into fear and paranoia given
its key role as a regional hub for business, diplomacy and the development
sector. Kenya should also avoid a knee-jerk crackdown on its Somali
population, something that has the potential to stimulate yet further
violence, which is no doubt what the attackers intended.
So this is probably going to mean more engagement with the Kenyan security
and intelligence services at a time when western powers have been trying to
keep the new government at arm's length whilst its two top men are on trial
at the ICC.
If the Westgate attack shows us anything it's that Al Shabaab remains
organised and dangerous and Kenya's Somalia problem is nowhere near solved.
Received on Thu Sep 26 2013 - 09:54:28 EDT