Nile dam study fails to stem the tide of Egyptian indignation towards
Ethiopia
Claim and counter-claim has attended the delayed publication of a report on
the likely impact of the Grand Renaissance dam
<
http://www.theguardian.com/profile/patrick-kingsley> Patrick Kingsley in
Cairo
Friday 18 April 2014 12.35 BST
The opening sentence of <
http://www.theguardian.com/world/egypt> Egypt's
new constitution describes the country as the river Nile's gift to
Egyptians. It is a grand claim, but one that helps explain Egypt's
indignation at the ongoing construction of a blockage on the Nile, thousands
of miles upstream: the $4.7bn (£2.8bn) Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam
(Gerd).
<
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jun/11/ethiopia-rejects-egyptian-prot
ests-nile-dam> Egyptians have long maintained that Ethiopia's dam project
will dangerously deplete its water stocks – about 95% of which are derived
from the world's longest river. A year ago, a former Egyptian water official
boldly claimed that the Gerd might deprive Egypt of up to 10bn kilolitres,
devastating roughly a million acres of farmland along the shores of the
Nile.
"Then you might cross the Nile on the back of a camel," the former head of
Egypt's <
http://www.nwrc-egypt.org/> National Water Research Centre said at
the time, in what were highly contested claims.
Egyptian politicians have used such claims to portray the dam as a threat to
national security, and have occasionally made ambiguous statements about the
possibility of military action. For their part, the Ethiopian government
sees the Gerd as a crucial developmental goal – a 6,000 megawatt source of
surplus electricity that they could sell to foreign countries to boost their
economy.
Last month, the saga took a fresh twist after the leak of a highly
anticipated and hitherto suppressed report into the long-term effects of
what would be <
http://www.theguardian.com/world/africa> Africa's largest
hydroelectric dam. Written by two water experts from each of the three main
countries concerned – <
http://www.theguardian.com/world/ethiopia> Ethiopia,
Egypt and Sudan – as well as international advisers, the report was seen as
a much needed means of arbitration between the parties concerned.
But for nearly a year the report's contents were a mystery. After its
submission last April, publication was suppressed at the request of one of
the countries involved, enabling all concerned to make whatever claims they
liked about its contents.
That should have changed at the end of March, when a
<
http://www.internationalrivers.org/files/attached-files/international_panel
_of_experts_for_ethiopian_renaissance_dam-_final_report_1.pdf> leaked
version (pdf) was finally published by the
<
http://www.internationalrivers.org/> International Rivers Network (IRN), an
independent group that campaigns against dams across the world. But rather
than clarifying the dam's impact once and for all, the report has become the
latest pawn in a war of words between Egypt and Ethiopia.
<
http://www.internationalrivers.org/gerd-panel-of-experts-report-big-questio
ns-remain> IRN said it showed that "big questions remain" and called for a
halt to the dam's construction. But Ethiopian government spokesman Getachew
Reda said the group was "absolutely biased", and "part of the smear campaign
organised by Egypt". In the meantime, the dam's construction continues
apace.
The report is nuanced and complex, and does not try to quantify exactly the
likely downstream effect of the dam on Egypt's water supply. But its 48
pages nonetheless contain alarming findings. If the dam's reservoirs are
filled during years of average or above-average rainfall, says the report,
the hydroelectric capacity of Egypt's downstream Aswan High dam (Had) –
which provides about 15% of Egypt's power – could face a temporary 6%
decrease. But if filled during years of below-average rainfall, the Gerd may
"significantly impact on water supply to Egypt and cause the loss of power
generation at Had for extended periods".
Among other criticisms, the report warns that the dam's foundations may need
further structural support to protect against sliding. It also says Ethiopia
has done little to assess the Gerd's effect on local people, ecosystems and
biodiversity. Based on these findings, the IRN concludes that the report
"confirms Egypt's concerns that the project's impacts could be significant",
and calls for construction to cease pending better analysis.
Not all independent analysts share this view, however. According to Dr Ana
Cascão, a researcher at the <
http://www.siwi.org/> Stockholm International
Water Institute whose doctoral thesis analysed hydropolitics in the Nile
basin, Egypt fought for the report to be kept secret. Cascão argues the
study is largely optimistic about the Gerd's impacts – "and that's why Egypt
was not happy for it to be released". It is critical about the dam's social
and environmental impact, she says, "but otherwise – in terms of dam safety
and even in terms of water going downstream – the report is quite positive".
This is because the Gerd may eventually help to reduce the build-up of
sediment in downstream dams like the Had, increasing capacity. The Gerd will
also help to keep the Nile's flow – which presently fluctuates according to
the amount of rainfall, potentially causing problems for downstream farmers
even in Egypt – constant throughout the year. In terms of structural safety,
Sudan – the country most endangered by any catastrophe at the Gerd – is
satisfied with its construction.
Egypt's interests may actually be aligned with Ethiopia's, since Ethiopia
will ultimately want to see as much water flow through the Gerd as possible
in order to maximise hydroelectric power. It is, says Cascão, Sudan's
intentions that may instead cause the greatest long-term concern for Egypt.
The Gerd would allow Sudan to siphon off more downstream water for farm
irrigation, potentially allowing the republic to take more water from the
Nile than allowed by an agreement signed with Egypt in 1959.
Sudan has achieved this leverage by engaging positively with the dam's
construction; Egypt's only means of reaching a grand compromise may be
through similar engagement.
But it may now be too late. According to the Ethiopian government, an army
of 8,500 builders, working 24 hours a day, has
<
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26679225> already completed about 30%
of the 1,800 sq km site.
Received on Fri Apr 18 2014 - 18:35:37 EDT