Date: Thu, 9 Oct 2014 22:53:11 +0200
In South Sudan, a warring elite deaf to peace
After months of talks and countless calls to end fighting and prevent
famine, leaders appear no closer to ending rift.
<http://www.aljazeera.com/profile/william-davison.html> William Davison
Last updated: 08 Oct 2014 14:59
Despite repeated
<https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5FAwdVtt-gCeURpOGdEZkRXNFBIZjhobXlIRUg3X3l
5Tkx3/edit> threats of sanctions from South Sudan’s neighbors, and warnings
about an impending famine, the chances of a lasting settlement to end the
conflict in the world’s newest nation appear remote.
A schism among the country’s leadership that spiraled nine months ago into
ethnic killings and other atrocities shows no sign of healing.
With limited strategic direction offered by a divided region and a
disheartened, distracted international community, east African mediators are
struggling to cajole the nation’s battle-hardened political elite into
mending its ways.
And it is the country's people who say they are paying the price. Thousands
of people have died in fighting and approximately 1.8 million of South
Sudan’s 11 million people are displaced inside and outside the country.
Food airdrops have improved conditions, yet aid agencies say that the three
war-torn eastern regions of South Sudan - two of which contain oil wells,
the country’s economic lifeline - could still suffer a famine next year if
fighting resumes when rains subside this month.
"Peace cannot come from outside it must come from inside," Nadia Jarden, a
married mother of two who works in a bookshop in South Sudan’s capital Juba,
told Al Jazeera.
"The region cannot help in bringing peace to South Sudan unless we ourselves
are committed to solve our internal war."
Peace talks that adjourned again this weekend in neighbouring Ethiopia
involve not only the government and the rebels fighting to unseat them, but
also other politicians, civil society representatives and religious leaders.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development,
<http://southsudan.igad.int/> a regional bloc mediating negotiations, says
any successful deal has to be forged by a cross-section of society rather
than by just the political class - responsible for the current strife and
preceding rampant misrule.
Those leaders didn’t "create the necessary institutions for effective
governance," Seyoum Mesfin, a former Ethiopian foreign minister leading the
peace talks, said in February as he made the case for an inclusive process
involving “all stakeholders” to drag the country back from a disaster.
"Given the realities of South Sudan, this is not a choice, but a necessity,"
Seyoum said.
The coup question
Delegates at the peace talks in Ethiopia are tasked with hammering out an
agreement based on a blueprint for a transitional government and political
reform, which was agreed last month.
Leaders from regional countries - including Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda -
signed the proposal, as did South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir, one of two
powerful men at the very heart of the conflict.
The conflict began when tensions at the top of the ruling Sudan People’s
Liberation Movement (SPLM) turned violent.
Kiir arrested rivals for coup plotting, while others, including Riek Machar
- who’d been sacked as vice president in July after
<http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/04/riek-machar-south-sudan-ambiti
ons> announcing his intention to challenge Kiir- fled the capital Juba.
Until you agree on what’s going on, it’s very difficult to agree on a
solution.
J Peter Pham, Atlantic Council
The United Nations in South Sudan
<http://www.unmiss.unmissions.org/Portals/unmiss/Human%20Rights%20Reports/UN
MISS%20Conflict%20in%20South%20Sudan%20-%20A%20Human%20Rights%20Report.pdf>
said in May that the fighting had an ethnic dimension at the outset, with
troops from Kiir’s Dinka group accused of targeting Nuer in the capital
Juba, including in a massacre of 300 men in one cell.
Machar, a Nuer, became the figurehead of the ensuing rebellion as Nuer
commanders defected and turned against the army.
The senior regime figures who had been arrested - including SPLM
Secretary-General Pagan Amum, another man planning to run for president -
arrested for plotting a coup were released by Kiir’s administration under
foreign pressure.
No key player, such as IGAD or the United States, has publicly corroborated
the government’s claim there was an attempted coup d'état.
Edmund Yakani, who runs the Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation
in Juba, says Kiir "mismanaged the internal pressure", suppressed debate and
closed party organs, which "led to this revolution."
IGAD, though, backs the government narrative that Kiir is a legitimate
leader who faced an unconstitutional challenge.
"Their lack of understanding of it has not given them the chance to put
proper and real, concrete, effective pressure on the government," Yakani
said.
J Peter Pham, Director of the Africa Center at the Atlantic Council in
Washington DC, notes that even within the US State Department, policy has
been incoherent.
While most South Sudan specialists recognise that Kiir is part of the
problem, Washington's top diplomat, John Kerry, has made strong public
displays of support for him, he said.
Negotiations 'like war'
Yet while Kiir is blamed for the disorder in some quarters, he also has
important backers - not least Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, a powerful
regional figure.
Museveni sent Ugandan troops into South Sudan early in the conflict to
protect the government in a move that was apprehensively backed by other
east African leaders.
While none wanted a rebel takeover of Juba, they feared Uganda’s
intervention could prompt its archrival Sudan to retaliate, possibly
dragging in Ethiopia and its enemy Eritrea, leading to a regional conflict.
Museveni is also influential in the political sphere.
<http://africanarguments.org/2014/09/03/addis-dispatches-part-two-igads-cred
ibility-seriously-damaged-by-south-sudan-summit-fiasco/> An insider account
revealed that at the recent IGAD summit he spearheaded the move to amend a
power-sharing proposal so Kiir’s powers were left intact.
During chaotic proceedings, Machar rejected the deal, which could have left
him as a weak prime minister barred from standing in subsequent elections.
The parties made no progress on this key issue in the latest round of talks.
The tilt towards Kiir complicates the task of IGAD’s mediators as the
government is under little pressure to make concessions.
Similarly, although
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/2013/12/profile-south-sudan-riek-machar-20
131230201534595392.html> Machar has a history of violent rebellion and
insurgents loosely allied to him are accused of committing atrocities in
recent months - his claim to be fighting a dictatorial regime that’s lost
popular support carries weight with some.
So while IGAD aspires for the state to be rebuilt in an inclusive process,
the problem-creators are integral to a solution, according to Oxford
University’s Harry Verhoeven, who teaches African politics and specialises
in the Sudans.
"Most in the region understand that odious as Riek Machar himself clearly is
- given the human rights violations he orchestrated in the 1990s - he does
speak for a number of legitimate grievances," he said.
"The negotiators are still facing the same dilemma as at the start of the
crisis: power-sharing was the problem to begin with, but by default it's the
only solution."
A crisis ignored
Yakani worries even achieving this type of quick fix could be difficult, as
Machar demands Kiir’s departure. This is especially so given South Sudan’s
heavily centralised state where the president has powers to dismiss
legislatures as well as regional governors and judges.
Machar wants an "agreement that gives an exit of Salva and gives him no any
options of playing around with the exit procedure,” Yakani said.
Verhoeven believes a turbulent 50-year history of conflict also plays into
the current situation. And even an increasingly exasperated population has
not pushed the bickering sides to find a solution.
Deng Wal, a secondary school student in Juba, blames all ruling party
factions for the strife, but believes another reconciliation is possible.
"I think they can work together," he said. "People split and they still come
back together for the sake of peace."
Once the threat of Uganda and Sudan facing off was averted, then an
international community exasperated at the continual strife turned its
attentions to the other crises on the continent, Ukraine, and the Middle
East.
Given this context, it’s unlikely the threat of sanctions, an arms embargo,
or the clamoring for peace before hundreds of thousands starve to death,
will alter the South Sudanese leaders’ calculations, Verhoeven said.
"Peace negotiations is a very long game and part of the political struggle
for these actors, just like war," he said. "They don't consider outside
warnings very credible - or even very important."
Gabriel Ramadan provided additional reporting from Juba.
Follow William Davison on Twitter: <https://twitter.com/wdavison10>
_at_wdavison10
http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/Images/2014/7/16/2014716182217920734_20.jpg
Aid agencies say South Sudan could suffer a famine next year if fighting
resumes [Reuters]
<http://www.aljazeera.com/>
http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/Images/2014/8/2/20148274856521621_8.jpg
Country:
Republic of South Sudan
Capital:
Juba
Location:
East Africa
President:
Salva Kiir Mayardiit
Main political parties:
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), Sudan People's Liberation
Movement - Democratic Change (SPLM-DC)
Population:
7.5 - 9.7 million (UN estimate 2006)
Size:
619,745 sq/km
GDP per capita (2011):
-
Exports:
Oil
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2013/12/infographic-untangling
-south-sudan-violence-2013122664122452747.html>
http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/206/309/mritems/Images/2013/12/3
1/201312319268396580_20.jpg
Infographic: Untangling South Sudan violence
(image/jpeg attachment: image005.jpg)
(image/jpeg attachment: image006.jpg)
(image/jpeg attachment: image007.jpg)