Somalia's Islamist rebels down but not out after military setbacks
Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:38am GMT
* Experienced al Shabaab leader Godane killed in September
* Barawe was Islamist rebels' last major coastal stronghold
* Al Shabaab already proved a potent guerrilla force
* West, Africans worry al Shabaab can still strike abroad
By Feisal Omar
BARAWE, Somalia, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Military strikes that drove al Shabaab
rebels from a strategic Somali port this week and killed their leader last
month have dealt the group a hefty blow, but it is far too soon to declare
victory say Somalis, Western diplomats and military commanders.
Youths celebrated the routing of al Shabaab from Barawe by playing street
soccer for the first time in six years, one of many activities banned by the
austere Islamists alongside chewing the stimulant khat and watching
satellite television.
But the shadow of al Shabaab, even after its weekend defeat at the hands of
African peacekeepers and Somali troops, still looms over residents, all too
aware of the group's ability to melt away and return with devastating
guerrilla-style raids.
"Al Shabaab threatened us the day they abandoned the town," said Halima
Osman, refusing to sell her drinks to government troops marching into town.
"If you buy my tea, al Shabaab fighters will behead me or kill me
immediately you leave."
Barawe, a conduit for arms and a source of revenues from charcoal smuggling,
was al Shabaab's last major coastal stronghold. Its loss on Sunday was the
latest in a string of defeats in al Shabaab's heartland in south and central
Somalia.
It adds to the challenge facing a group whose charismatic and ruthless
leader, Ahmed Godane, was killed in a U.S. missile strike in September. His
successor, Ahmad Umar, whose rise is attributed to his loyalty to Godane
rather than his own power base, must consolidate his rule as al Shabaab
fighters retreat.
But the group, which swept to power in Somalia in 2006, stayed a potent
force after it was driven from Mogadishu in 2011 and the latest setbacks are
unlikely to halt its campaign that has included attacking the presidential
compound, assassinating officials and ambushing the Western-backed African
Union force.
Western nations and Somalia's African neighbours worry that as long as al
Shabaab can still control even smaller centres or tracts of countryside, it
will threaten Somalia's gradual recovery from two decades of war.
They fear it could still use the territory to promote its "jihad" well
beyond Somalia's borders.
REGIONAL REACH
"Al Shabaab is weakened after Godane's death and Barawe capture," said
Abdikadir Mohamed Sidii, governor of the Lower Shabelle region south of the
capital, speaking in Barawe.
But he said it still had a large force of well-equipped and experienced
fighters, using vehicles mounted with anti-aircraft guns and other arms.
"There is thick bush in these areas and al Shabaab plans to fight guerrilla
warfare here," he said.
Suicide car bombers and fighters ready to die as they charge into government
buildings with guns blazing have kept residents of Mogadishu on edge.
Abroad, al Shabaab proved its regional reach with last year's attack on a
Nairobi shopping mall that left at least 67 dead and other fatal raids in
Kenya since then.
"Al Shabaab is a very resilient organisation. It has repeatedly restructured
itself, coped with changes in leadership," said one diplomat. "So it would
be a mistake to underestimate al Shabaab."
As well as striking Mogadishu, al Shabaab - which means "the Youths" - has
cut supply lines to towns that were retaken in this year's offensive by the
Western-financed African Union's AMISOM troops and the Somali army, which is
slowly being turned from a rag-tag group of militias into a national force.
But modern equipment and foreign funds are not always a match. "Tanks are
not made for fighting groups of five guerrillas in the bush," said Hussein
Nur, a university lecturer in governance and leadership in Mogadishu.
Some centres became "ghost towns" after being recaptured as rebels stopped
aid convoys reaching them, forcing residents to flee in search of food. That
undermined the government's promise of a better life under its rule.
"Hungry Somalis may join al Shabaab if AMISOM and the government do not
urgently help them," said Major Clement Cimana, spokesman for Burundi's
AMISOM contingent, noting the challenge of supplying towns via ruined and
dangerous roads.
"It will take much time to reconcile al Shabaab to reach peace," he said.
"(The) military may not be the only solution."
"CRUSADERS AND APOSTATES"
Seizing on al Shabaab's setbacks, the government issued a 45-day amnesty in
early September for members of the group after Godane was killed, urging
fighters to hand themselves in and aiming at drawing in mid- to high-ranking
officials.
So far, diplomats say there has been little take up, beyond a few
low-ranking members, suggesting it may take more than battlefield defeat to
shake the religious convictions behind a group which wants to impose its
strict version of Islamic law.
Al Shabaab, with its characteristic defiance, said "the claim by the
crusaders and apostates" that it had been weakened would soon be proved
wrong, just as it was wrongly counted out when it lost Mogadishu and the
southern port of Kismayu.
"The current claims are no different to the previous (ones). Time will prove
them again to be baseless, with the disbelievers waging a losing war,"
Abdiasis Abu Musab, the spokesman for al Shabaab's military operations, told
Reuters by email.
Yet, although recent military victories have yet to trigger major al Shabaab
defections, it may be slowly whittling away at morale. The new leader Umar
cannot boast Godane's battlefield experience nor his appeal that came from
Godane's mastery of Somali poetry and reputation as an Islamic scholar.
"There is a possibility that some mid-level people might decide to jump ship
as they run out of space," said Abdi Aynte, director of director of the
Heritage Institute for Policy Studies in Mogadishu. "I remain convinced that
in the longer run he would struggle to keep the organization cohesive."
(Additional reporting by Abdi Sheikh in Mogadishu; Writing by Edmund Blair;
Editing by Andrew Heavens)