South Sudan: No End in Sight for South Sudan Peace Talks?
11 October 2014
October 9 was the deadline for a peace deal between South Sudan's rival
factions. The talks have barely budged in months and the international
community seems to lack the will and means to bring an end to the crisis.
They were supposed to end the fighting and establish a unity government by
the beginning of October. If this was not achieved, announced IGAD, an East
African regional body, action would be taken against those responsible for
the crisis. Yet the deadline has passed and instead of slamming the
government of Salva Kiir and Riek Machar's rebel groups with sanctions, IGAD
has extended the deadline. This time until October 16.
The inconsequential passing of the deadline shows the helplessness of the
negotiators. Since May 2014, IGAD, a regional body which includes Ethiopia,
Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and Somalia has spearheaded the talks. They invited
Kiir and Machar to Ethiopia. They set deadlines. Yet like this one, the
deadlines went by almost unnoticed and without consequences.
International experts like Wolf-Christian Paes of the Bonn International
Center for Conversion (BICC) see little hope for an outcome of the peace
talks in the near future. "At the moment we can't even speak of an actual
peace process," he commented.
Atrocities on both sides
South Sudan had only gained independence from the Republic of Sudan 2011.
The civil war erupted at the end of 2013, when President Kiir accused his
deputy Riek Machar of plotting to overthrow him. Machar and his supporters
broke with the government.
The fighting that erupted threw the country into an ethnic conflict that has
cost over 1,000 lives and has driven hundreds of thousands from their homes.
Over 10,000 people currently live in crowded UN camps , which can do little
to protect them in the case of a large scale attack. Human rights groups say
that both parties have committed atrocities and war crimes.
IGAD, says the conflict expert Paes, has proven itself a "toothless tiger"
when it comes to South Sudan. And the world, he thinks has lost interest in
the conflict. "To my knowledge, the UN Security Council has made no serious
attempts to implement sanctions against the warring parties in recent
months," says Paes. Not even an arms embargo is in sight.
Deep seated tensions
The most recent talks came to a standstill over the creation of the new
prime minister's post for an interim government. The post would be given to
a representative of the rebel faction and it's holder would head the
government alongside the president. Both sides had initially agreed to the
plan, but they were unable to agree on the role and responsibilities that
would come with the position.
This brings us to the heart of the problem, explains Nhial Tiitmamer,
director of the South Sudanese think tank, the SUDD Institute. The conflict
is about power. "No side has come out and said, we don't want transitional
justice, we don't want reconciliation," he notes. "The powersharing seems to
be the controversial point at the moment." The end of the conflict, he
believes, lies in the question whether Kiir and Machar's parties are willing
to split the power.
According to Tiitmamer all the diplomatic pressure and the sanctions will
not solve the crisis. "The hate propaganda that has been going on has made
it very difficult for the parties to really realize that the country is
bigger than individual egos," he says. Perhaps foreign go-betweens could
help to breakdown the hate and mistrust between the political parties and
the different ethnic groups. "The IGAD talks should be supplemented with
efforts to build trust," Tiitmamer advises.
South Sudan afterall has experience peace-building and reconciliation. The
periods of peace with the Republic of Sudan and building of an independent
South Sudan are examples of how at least a fragile peace was established
after years of brutal civil war.