Date: Tue, 14 Oct 2014 12:48:52 +0200
Yemen On the Brink: A Failure of Democracy?
by Robert Sharp
<http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/author/robert-sharp/>
October 14, 2014
Yemen is again in the headlights and headlines. Yesterday more than 60
people were killed by Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) during
attacks targeting a Houthi gathering in the capital Sana'a and at an army
base and a checkpoint in Hadramout. Houthi Shi'ite Muslim fighters on
Tuesday rejected President Hadi's nomination by Decree of a new Prime
Minister.
Saba News Agency claimed that the appointment of Dr. Ahmed bin Mubarak was
met with agreement of all parties earlier in the week, but later it appeared
the Houthi leadership claimed American meddling and rejected the
appointment. More worryingly, and likely causing the attacks of today and
what will now follow, the Houthis stated an intent for "revolutionary
escalation" and likely a full scale return to the incidents and clashes of
the last few weeks which have claimed the lives of around 200 innocent
Yemeni. The Houthis are behaving like Hezbollah and AQAP are countering. It
appears that democracy has failed. Is Yemen on the brink again?
On 23 November 2011 former President Ali Abdullah Saleh signed the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) implementation mechanism that transferred power to
Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi. The signing brought to an end nine months of mass
protests to force out Saleh's regime and a further six months of disturbance
before the GCC initiative was submitted. In that time the Yemeni version of
the so-called Arab Spring claimed some believe over 2,000 lives. This figure
does not include those lost to terrorism including the martyrs of today and
those who died in other cowardly acts of AQAP during the same period.
Specifically, AQAP is condemned for their horrific suicide attack that
targeted Yemen's Ministry of Defense complex in Sana'a, claiming the lives
of 50 innocents in December 2013. The AQAP problem is ongoing and now
focusing on the Houthis.
Houthi unrest began in 2004. The most recent Houthi incident seemed to come
to a close last week. President Hadi agreed to reverse the cut to fuel
subsidies and to form a new national government, including advisors
nominated by the Houthis in exchange for their withdrawal from Sana'a and
other northern cities. But in a turn of fate, painting a picture of a
Hezbollah-like press for power as an Iranian proxy, the Houthis have not
withdrawn and are now easing further forward toward their goal of absolute
power.
Yemen has been on the brink of civil war since early 2011. It is only the
GCC deal and herculean efforts by President Hadi, his trusted people, the
international community and in particular United Nations Special Envoy Dr.
Jamal Benomar that has prevented war and complete collapse before now. The
Yemeni National Dialogue Conference was part of the GCC deal and all
involved labored long and hard to draw a consensus set of recommendations.
These are for the future of Yemen. Participants worked tirelessly across a
range of issues in working groups. Following the National Dialogue
Conference a Constitution Drafting Committee was charged with writing the
new constitution to be followed by a national referendum and then
Presidential and Parliamentary Elections.
There seemed to be so much hope and opportunity presented through this
democratic approach to a new Yemen, despite the many destabilizing factors
pulling Yemen apart. These include the daily traumas of water and oil
shortages, poverty, lack of jobs, illiteracy, Qat and ghosts of a former
regime, not to mention the Houthis and AQAP. Yemen is a mess. The current
Houthi challenge adds enormous weight to an already heavily loaded set of
challenges. AQAP's intervention looks like it will break the camel's back.
Luckily, as always, the hardy people of this fine country have almost
limitless tolerance and depth in their well of capacity for suffering, but
how much can they take? The recent good news of an International Monetary
Fund first payment of $73.8 million out of the $552.9 million total credit
is most welcome, but this has now been overshadowed. Moving forward, who is
going to invest in a Yemen that is so torn apart by violence?
Now should be the time to look beyond short-term aims to longer and
sustainable achievements. The ideal strategic leader for Yemen right now is
someone who is both competent to support Yemen's development and also young
enough to embrace and connect to the influential youth and draw all the
parties together. Yemen needs leaders who can demonstrate emotional
intelligence in terms of their self-awareness, self-management, social
awareness and relationship management, as much as decision-making and
direction. All those skill sets were heavily tested during the National
Dialogue Conference as parties wrestled to be heard and achieve consensus.
Who better to have been the new Prime Minister of Yemen than someone who at
46 years of age had recently served as the President's Chief of Staff, who
holds a PhD in Business Administration, and was the Secretary-General of
Yemen's successful National Dialogue Conference.
Dr. Mubarak proved he had the necessary strategic leadership skills to form
a new government and in particular demonstrated proven savvy to stand a safe
distance from all parties when he was Secretary-General. It made sense that
the man who orchestrated the National Dialogue should now step up and
implement its outcomes. Dr. Mubarak clearly has the confidence of the
majority of the thinking people in Yemen and also of the President. It is
therefore tragic that wishing to prevent the anticipated widespread violence
(which happened anyway) and in support of the unity of Yemen and the
integrity of the office of President Hadi, that Dr. Mubarak announced
yesterday his resignation as Prime Minister.
Is it realistic to expect the international community under United Nations
Resolution to consider intervention? Iran is turning Yemen into a proxy
through the Houthis who have just prevented, by the threat of violence and
coup d'etat, the best man for the job from being confirmed as Prime
Minister. Now AQAP are stepping up their war with the Houthis. Will Yemen
now receive the international community support it so deserves or will
activities to prevent the expansion of ISIS dwarf today's death of democracy
in Yemen?
Anadolu
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