Djibouti: Obama’s national security gamble
By Paul Chambres
October 21, 2014, 01:00 pm
Even to the untrained eye, Djibouti’s strategic location is clear. Poised on
the Gulf of Aden with access to both the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, which
host some of the world’s busiest shipping lanes and pirate-infested waters,
the country is also a stone’s throw from Yemen and the Arab Peninsula. The
United States currently has 4,000 troops stationed on Djiboutian territory
in
<
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/remote-us-base-at-cor
e-of-secret-operations/2012/10/25/a26a9392-197a-11e2-bd10-5ff056538b7c_story
.html> Camp Lemonnier, the base that hosts the Combined Joint Task Force –
Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) of the U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM), including
more active Predator drones than anywhere outside the Afghan war zone. It’s
no small wonder then that the country has become a linchpin of America’s
national security strategy.
Last year, Congress approved a $1.2 billion investment plan for Camp
Lemonnier over the next 25 years, affirming that “the national security
interests of the United States are supported by the enduring presence at
Camp Lemonnier”, according to the
<
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/cpquery/?&sid=cp113sJKdk&r_n=hr102.113&dbname
=cp113&&sel=TOC_1112542&> House Report. Over the years, the U.S. military
has used Camp Lemonnier to target threats ranging from Somali pirates to
al-Shabaab militants, the particularly nefarious terrorist group behind the
September 2013
<
http://blogs.reuters.com/photographers-blog/2013/09/23/witnessing-the-nairo
bi-mall-massacre/> Westgate mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya.
Also noted in the House Report, though, is the Committee on Armed Services’
concern over the “lack of clarity on the long-term plan to sustain
operations and the infrastructure at this leased location”. Sustainability
is the key word here, as recent political developments in Djibouti have
raised questions over how reliable President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, generally
referred to by his initials, IOG, will be as an ally to Washington.
In many ways, Guelleh’s lengthy tenure as president of Djibouti has been
both a blessing and a curse to the country. Having first assumed office in
1999, after succeeding his uncle’s 22-year stint, IOG has achieved a level
of relative security for his constituents (though with Somalia as a point of
reference, one can argue that the bar has never been set very high).
Moreover, the fact that there has only ever been two presidents in Djibouti
since the country’s independence from France, both from the same powerful
ethnic clan, has aided the country’s stability but has also allowed IOG to
purge much of the political establishment, granting him unchecked power.
Today, IOG’s governance seems to be growing increasingly erratic. When
Djiboutian businessman Abdourahman Boreh dared to consider a presidential
bid in 2011 (only to bow out when IOG declared he would run for a third
term), he found himself accused of orchestrating a
<
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-11/djibouti-opposition-blames-politic
s-for-dp-world-concession-row.html> terrorist “grenade attack” and promptly
received a 15-year prison sentence after seeking refuge in Dubai. Moreover,
when Dubai refused to extradite Boreh, IOG retaliated by informing Emirati
company DP World that their 30-year concession on the valuable Doraleh
container terminal had been “cancelled”. According to American NGO Freedom
House, which monitors political, civil and economic liberty in the world,
Djibouti is on a
<
http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2012/djibouti#.VETXO4usU68
> “downward trend” since he won his third term in office.
The DP World case serves well to explain Washington’s concern over IOG’s
history of about-faces. For example, when the Pentagon began working to
establish USAFRICOM, IOG readily reached out and
<
http://www.aafonline.co.za/news/djibouti-china-planning-military-base-incre
ased-co-operation> proposed Djibouti for the Command’s headquarters. As
public opinion has shifted against drones, however, IOG demanded that the
United States move its unmanned aircraft program to a derelict airfield in
the desert, Chabelley Airfield. The unanticipated change of location forced
the Pentagon to ask Congress for urgent authorization of
<
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/drone-safety-concerns
-force-us-to-move-large-fleet-from-camp-lemonnier-in-djibouti/2013/09/24/955
518c4-213c-11e3-a03d-abbedc3a047c_story.html> $13 million in funds and
equipment, hence the House Committee’s concern over the sustainability of
CJTF-HOA activities.
Most worrying, though, is President Guelleh’s tendency to play the United
States against other great powers for greater financial gain. The overtures
IOG has made to China and Russia in recent years, signing a
<
http://allafrica.com/stories/201402280055.html> strategic defense agreement
with the former, have forced the U.S. to more than quadruple their fees for
Camp Lemonnier’s lease, now
<
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/06/world/africa/us-signs-new-lease-to-keep-s
trategic-military-installation-in-the-horn-of-africa.html> paying $133
million per year. There is little doubt that IOG will continue to demand
more, while American investments in the military bases mean it will be more
and more difficult to pull out. Though the benefits of U.S. cooperation with
Djibouti are genuine, it would be a dangerous gamble for the Obama
administration to assume IOG will continue to cooperate with Washington
indefinitely.
On one hand, IOG’s behavior is understandable. His country has precious few
resources apart from its strategic location and his government should take
advantage of this. However, partnerships in national security operations
demand much more from the actors involved than purely commercial deals, and
before throwing our support behind IOG and calling him an ‘ally’, the
Djiboutian president must prove he is more than a fair-weather friend.
Chambres, based in Paris, teaches and consults on international affairs.
Received on Tue Oct 21 2014 - 15:54:08 EDT