Date: Wed, 22 Oct 2014 12:45:55 +0200
Analysis: The state of state-building in Somalia
By Anthony Morland
<http://www.irinnews.org/report/100745/analysis-the-state-of-state-building-
in-somalia>
HIGHLIGHTS
* Deal aims to normalize Somalia-Puntland relations
* Somaliland fears Somalia-Puntland military deal
* Oil rich part of Somaliland prone to conflict
* Corruption and governance issues need tackling
NAIROBI, 22 October 2014 (IRIN) - A fence-mending deal signed this month by
Somalia and Puntland has variously been hailed as a blueprint for stability
and state-building in the wake of decades of civil war, and dismissed as a
recipe for renewed inter-clan violence.
The 14 October agreement between the Mogadishu-based Federal Government of
Somalia (FGS) and the autonomous Puntland State covers issues including
bilateral relations, contentious political boundaries and national security.
The self-declared independent republic of Somaliland, which lies to the west
of Puntland, said it felt threatened by the prospect of the new joint
military force outlined in the agreement.
Federalism and its discontents
" <http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportID=99600> Federal member
states" are, according to a provisional constitution, the future building
blocks of a more stable Somalia, but the process of creating them has been
very contentious. One of the key points of the agreement was to reassure
Puntland that the nascent
<http://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2014/July/55812/federal_government_endorses_th
e_formation_of_central_somali_state.aspx#sthash.Lb0DNrlO.2oLCqWX5.dpbs>
FGS-endorsed Central Regions State would not include any territory currently
under Puntland's jurisdiction. (Puntland had in July cut ties with Mogadishu
over the perceived inclusion of northern Mudug Province in Central Regions
State.)
According to its final clause, the 14 October agreement, which was endorsed
by the envoys of the UN, European Union and the Intergovernmental Authority
on Development (IGAD), "ends any misunderstanding between the two parties
and ushers in a new era of collaboration and cooperation to further enhance
the ongoing state-building process at national and state levels and to
address security matters."
Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, senior political adviser at IGAD, a grouping of
regional states, explained the broader importance of the deal.
"The major significance is that it normalizes the relations between the FGS
and Puntland. Prior to this, relations were at an all-time low and
characterized by suspicion, especially after the Mogadishu government
supported the formation of the Central State," he told IRIN.
African Union envoy Maman Sidikou said the deal could "serve as a blueprint
for resolving differences in other Somali regions so that all efforts can be
focused on providing peace and prosperity for all Somalis."
Some leaders from the emerging Central Regions State disagreed, reacting to
the agreement with outrage, mainly because it reinforces the division of the
Mudug Region along clan lines.
"This agreement goes against the provisional constitution of Somalia that
clearly states that federal member states can only be formed through the
amalgamation of two or more [whole] regions that existed prior to the [1991]
downfall of Somalia's last central government," said Hassan Mohamud Hayl,
speaker of parliament in Galmudug, one of the constituent areas of Central
Regions State.
"This agreement will revive conflict and set the population of Mudug against
each other and this has to stop," he told IRIN.
Ugaas Abdi Dahir, an influential Galmudug elder, warned that "if the
government does not revisit this agreement, we will be forced to reconsider
our relations with the federal government."
Political analyst Abdikadir Suleiman Mohamed said the deal "divides the
people on clan lines because what it implies is that Darod-inhabited
[northern] areas of the [Mudug] region will be ruled by Puntland while
Hawiye-inhabited areas will be ruled by Hawiye, despite the fact that there
are also other clans [in Mudug] who do not belong to these two major clans."
"Federalism should be based on geography and not clan considerations," he
told IRIN, adding that the deal might encourage leaders in other emerging
federal member states to encroach on neighbouring states on the grounds that
certain clans predominated there.
"I doubt if this agreement will go anywhere because it is unconstitutional.
Also the national commission for federalism and border demarcation has not
yet been formed," Abdikadir Suleiman Mohamed pointed out.
For Cedric Barnes, Horn of Africa director of the International Crisis
Group, the 14 October deal "is symptomatic of the ad-hoc approach that is
being taken to the federalism agenda, without a larger national dialogue.
"The UN mission in Somalia, the SFG, IGAD, the EU and other donors are now
hooked into a continuing cycle of local, partial deals, all to meet a series
of external deadlines that have never produced good politics in Somalia," he
added.
Somaliland suspicious
In Somaliland, a northwestern area which unilaterally declared itself to be
an independent state in 1991 and whose relations with Mogadishu are frosty,
a senior government official told IRIN: "The only new thing is that they
[Puntland and Somalia] want to build a single army in order to threaten
Somaliland."
"As a government, we are closely following the situation as it unfolds and
we will respond accordingly to any attempt at interference," said Mohamed
Osman Dube, the administrative director of Somaliland's Ministry of
Interior.
Dube said Mogadishu "was already involved in anti-Somaliland activities"
notably in the Sool region, parts of which are claimed by both Somaliland
and Puntland.
In Sool, according to the
<http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/2014/726> 2014 report by
a UN-appointed Monitoring Group, "Somaliland forces have [in the past year]
clashed with Puntland forces and militias loyal to Khatumo, a political
organization based around the Dhulbahante clan that is pursuing the creation
of a regional state within Somalia and separation from Somaliland."
"The region is particularly prone to conflict, given the competing claims by
Somaliland, Puntland and Khatumo over oil-rich territory there and political
infighting among the Dhulbahante, who are divided in loyalty between
Puntland, Khatumo and Somaliland," the report said.
"This state of affairs has led to the militarization of the area, in
particular since November 2013, and links in some cases to [jihadist
insurgency] Al-Shabaab and in others to the Federal Government," it added.
Oil exploration licences in and near the Sool region have been issued by
authorities in Somaliland, Puntland and Somalia - in some cases for the same
blocs.
"When it comes to oil and gas, Somaliland will feel threatened [by the
agreement]: If Puntland is swearing allegiance to Mogadishu, it is more
likely to accept federal government fiats over oil licences in greater
Somalia, even if they have signed their own licences," explained a regional
political analyst who requested anonymity.
Somaliland is currently developing an
<http://www.irinnews.org/report/100460/briefing-somaliland-oil-and-security>
Oil Protection Unit ostensibly to provide security to firms conducting
seismic surveys. Concerns have been raised about the unit's potential to
destabilize the oil-rich areas.
According to IGAD's Sheehk, "there is an ongoing dialogue between Mogadishu
and [Somaliland capital] Hargeisa that is being facilitated by both Turkey
and Qatar. Even though there hasn't been significant headway made, both
sides are at least talking and taking each other seriously."
The regional analyst stressed that the 14 October deal needed to be
complemented by efforts to improve governance.
If left unaddressed, "corruption, mismanagement, secret deals and the
capture of public assets by narrow cliques in both Mogadishu and Puntland
threaten to undermine any progress in state-building," he said.
"The issue of corruption is key and donors are heading to make a big mistake
if they ignore it," he said, noting that not only was there no agreement
over the sharing of state resources between Puntland and the FGS, but that
there was little transparency over the value of their respective oil deals,
port revenue and other public goods.
According to the Monitoring Group, the "systematic misappropriation,
embezzlement and outright theft of public resources had [years ago]
essentially become a system of governance" and had in some areas, such as
"secret contracting" worsened since the 2012 installation of the
internationally-supported and bankrolled FGS.
The argument that "a degree of diversion is inevitable or even acceptable as
part of the State-formation process and the exercise of power under the
prevailing conditions. is not only inconsistent with the scale of irregular
financial flows, but also disregards the importance of corruption to the
chronic insecurity of Somalia," it said.
"In its investigations, the Group has consistently found patterns of
misappropriation with diversion rates of between 70 and 80 percent. The
indications are that diverted funds are used for partisan agendas that
constitute threats to peace and security."
<http://www.irinnews.org/Photo/Details/201410211311110107/Somali-Prime-Minis
ter-Abdiweli-Sheikh-Ahmed-and-Puntland-President-Abdiweli-Mohamed-Ali-sign-t
he>
http://www.irinnews.org/photo/Download.aspx?Source=Report&Year=2014&ImageID=
201410211311110107&Width=490
Photo: UNSOM <http://unsom.unmissions.org/>
Somali Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed and Puntland President Abdiweli
Mohamed Ali sign the agreement
(image/jpeg attachment: image005.jpg)