Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 19:21:19 +0100
INTERVIEW: Opposition leader suggests 'soft exit' for Sudan's Al-Bashir
Sadiq Al-Mahdi, who was overthrown by President Omar Al-Bashir 25 years ago,
says the longtime ruler should be exempt from war crimes if he agrees to
step down
Reuters , Tuesday 28 Oct 2014
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Leading Sudanese opposition figure Sadiq Al-Mahdi has urged President Omar
Hassan Al-Bashir not to extend his 25-year rule and suggested offering him
sanctuary from a war crimes trial if he relinquishes power.
It is the first time the opposition has publicly put forth such an idea,
with Al-Mahdi hoping that the notion of a "soft exit" could encourage
factions within Al-Bashir's own party to push for his departure and end
Sudan's international isolation.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for
Al-Bashir for crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide relating to
bloodshed in Sudan's Darfur region.
He has denied the allegations and refuses to go before the Hague-based
court. If he leaves office, he would have to entrust his fate to his
successor and concern over the charges was a key driver in his move to seek
another term in next April's presidential elections, political sources say.
Twenty-five years after being overthrown by Al-Bashir, Al-Mahdi called his
bid to keep hold of power a "historic mistake" that would worsen Sudan's
isolation and cripple an economy in turmoil since the oil-rich south seceded
in 2011.
"We as people who want change in Sudan look for a transition that would
involve some kind of soft exit for him," Al-Mahdi told Reuters in an
interview.
"If he becomes part of a solution, I think we can persuade all that he's
entitled to a different type of treatment ... But if change comes in spite
of his resistance ... whoever comes to power will find it necessary to hand
him over to the ICC."
Al-Mahdi, who heads one of Sudan's oldest political parties, was the
country's last democratically elected prime minister. He was overthrown in
1989 by an alliance of Islamists and military commanders that still form the
nucleus of Al-Bashir's all-powerful National Congress Party (NCP).
Al-Mahdi said disenchantment with Al-Bashir was growing as younger NCP
members expressed increasing frustration with an old guard of hardliners who
refuse to make room for a new generation.
Al-Bashir won 94-percent approval as the NCP's election for presidential
candidate on Saturday. But NCP sources have said the fight for the top job
would have been much more competitive without the ICC indictment hanging
over the country.
Al-Mahdi's offer to cut a deal that would guarantee Al-Bashir a safe exit
could change the political calculus within the ruling party, strengthening
the hand of those who say that he has become a liability for both Sudan and
the NCP.
Offering shelter to Al-Bashir would have been unthinkable for his opponents
a few years ago and also signals a tacit admission that only a compromise
could rid them of a man who has survived party rivals, perennial armed
rebellions and economic sanctions.
Election boycott
Mahdi said NCP critics understood that removing the controversial president
could unlock hundreds of millions of dollars in debt relief and foreign aid
that Sudan needs to shore up an economy that is suffering from some 40
percent inflation.
Sudan is struggling with a raft of UN and bilateral sanctions. The United
States renewed its sanctions on Friday, saying the government posed a threat
to the US.
Though Al-Bashir pledged in January to redraw the constitution, bring
opposition parties into government and launch a national dialogue, no
visible progress has been made. His decision to run again has thrown the
viability of the April polls into doubt.
"There can be no elections under this regime," Al-Mahdi said, calling on all
opposition parties to boycott.
Alongside his own Umma Party, the Popular Congress Party, led by veteran
Islamist and erstwhile Bashir ally Hassan Al-Turabi, said this month it
would not participate in the polls.
The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North, which came second in the 2010
polls, was banned when its armed wing began fighting against the government
in Blue Nile and South Kordofan provinces, making its participation
unlikely.
Sudan's government accused Al-Mahdi of conspiring with the rebels, a charge
that could carry the death penalty, leading him to seek refuge in Cairo in
early August.
Al-Mahdi said the national dialogue was at a "dead end", adding that there
could be no progress until all political players, including the armed
groups, were at the negotiating table.
"What is the point of a dialogue when any member in the dialogue can be
arrested because he or she said something that doesn't please the
government?" he said.
Al-Bashir may see little reason to compromise now.
Chaos in Libya and Syria has led some critics to moderate their demands that
Al-Bashir be removed by any means. The turmoil also seems to have emboldened
his administration, which has continued to jail politicians and journalists.
Al-Mahdi himself has strong political credentials as the grandson of Sayyed
Abdel-Rahman Al-Mahdi, who led a war against Anglo-Egyptian rule. But at 78,
he is older than Al-Bashir and many Sudanese say he represents their
country's past not its future.
In any case, Al-Bashir and his inner circle will have difficulty trusting
Al-Mahdi's offer of sanctuary without a guarantee that Sudan's fractious
opposition will all support it.
Al-Mahdi acknowledged that some rebels would demand "their pound of flesh"
but said it was possible to find a compromise, suggesting Al-Bashir might go
and live in another country.
"The Sudanese people are a tolerant people... But it may be better for
(Al-Bashir) if he is parked somewhere outside," he said.
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