Date: Fri, 31 Oct 2014 00:42:02 +0100
A Bloody Conundrum Beckons As Yemen Slides Into Civil War
By Laura Kasinov
October 30, 2014
Dwindling resources, rising poverty, widespread violence and a president
incapable of bringing about change. No wonder Yemen's ambassador to the UK
warned this week that his country risks being torn apart by civil war.
Abdullah al-Radhi said a peace deal between the warring parties is now
imperative and that international donors must honour their pledges of aid.
But no one is hopeful.
Half the country lives below the poverty line and Yemen is home to a deadly
branch of -al-Qaida, a chilling combination that allowed a rebel group,
known as the Houthis, to overrun the Yemeni capital of Sana'a in September.
The Houthis took control of government -ministries, forced the resignation
of the prime minister, and focused the ire of their attacks on individuals
and institutions representing Yemen's Muslim Brotherhood, known locally as
al-Islah. At least 340 died in the week-long battle that followed, according
to the Associated Press, mostly Houthis fighters; some were members of the
military who fought back and innocent civilians.
"The Yemeni government had been paralysed," says one Yemeni official who
worked for both the pre and post-Arab Spring governments and asked not to be
identified. "And the Houthis quickly have filled that vacuum."
While a political agreement struck between the Houthis and Yemen's
president, Abdurabbu Mansour Hadi, promises inclusion, many Yemenis are
sceptical of the Houthis' intentions, not least because the beleaguered
Yemeni government gave in to the armed men, who stormed into one of the few
areas of the country that had been fully under government control.
"It doesn't seem that Hadi has much control," says Nadwa al-Dawsari, a
Yemeni civil society activist and researcher, who specialises in tribal
conflict. "In his last speech, he asked the Houthis to evacuate Sana'a and
other cities immediately, but they are still there and expanding. It only
means that he no longer has control over Houthis, security or even his own
military forces."
The Houthis' takeover also threatens to bring a sectarian-based conflict to
Yemen not unlike those being fought in Iraq and Syria. The Houthis are
traditionally Shia, and though much of northern Yemen is Shia, the rebels
have been receiving support from Iran, financially, ideologically and,
according to some US officials, militarily. They preach a Shia'a revivalist
doctrine and have been engaged in an on-again, off-again war with the Yemeni
state since 2005.
"There is a strong atmosphere of apprehension and rumours about the motives
of the Houthis, including one that they want to claim a long lost right to
rule based on religious grounds," says al-Dawsari. "While this might not be
true, the Houthis' expansion by force across different areas of Yemen is
reinforcing this perception and instigating radical responses based on that
-perception."
Al-Qaida, meanwhile, has ties to some -leaders of al-Islah, who the Houthis
have targeted. A suicide bomb attack in Sanaa's busy central square during a
Houthis rally last month killed at least 43 people and was the first sign of
al-Qaida's retaliation against the Houthis' advancement. Though the militant
group has been attacking the Yemeni military with more ferocity since Hadi's
leadership began, this was first time they targeted Yemeni civilians in a
bombing.
While events in Yemen cannot be reduced to a simple Sunni-versus-Shia binary
because they are rooted in historical conflicts of family and tribe, it may
end up turning into that sort of war. Houthis militias have expanded
southward from the capital and entered territory that is controlled by
al-Qaida. The ensuing hostilities have killed dozens of fighters and at
least 10 civilians, according to reports.
"The average Yemeni is not scared of the Houthis' military checkpoints. But
the average Yemeni is scared of the suicide bombings," says Sarah Jamal, a
Sanaa-based independent researcher. "When we hear news on the radio that the
Houthis are battling al-Qaida in the countryside, people's first reaction in
Sana'a is to worry that al-Qaida is going to get us back here in the city."
In 2011, Yemenis from across many strata of society came out to the streets
to protest in a popular uprising that was part of a series of revolts
sweeping the Arab world at the time. Activists took to the streets to call
for the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, a corrupt autocrat and
ally of the US, who had run Yemen as a military dictatorship for more than
three decades. Now the hope of that moment has mostly dwindled.
"Yemenis have lost faith in activism," says Jamal. "The term 'activism' has
become more of a joke now because there is nothing louder than the sound of
bullets."
Saleh's government started to break apart in early 2011, as a result of the
protest movement. The US and other Western governments became concerned that
al-Qaida could take advantage of the ensuing chaos. During months of
political negotiations, Western diplomats negotiated for Saleh to step down.
Hadi was installed in power in early 2012. Saleh was meanwhile granted
immunity and has lived in Sana'a ever since, consolidating power among his
former allies, and, reportedly, stealing expensive wares from his former
presidential palace.
Meanwhile, Hadi had little political strength aside from the backing of the
Western governments and United Nations who installed him in power. Outside
factions jostled for more influence. No group did this more effectively than
the Houthis. They took over large swaths of territory and, last year, slowly
fought their way to the capital, defeating major tribal leaders, or sheikhs,
along the way.
"We don't have a clear understanding at this point about their intentions,"
said the US State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki in a recent press
conference about the Houthis advancement. "Obviously, we continue to
encourage all the parties to implement fully all of the provisions of the
Peace and National Partnership Agreement," she said, referring to the treaty
struck between Hadi and the Houthis after the militia's takeover of Sana'a.
With the Houthis as the new power brokers in Yemen, this presents a
particular conundrum for the US. The Houthis are Iranian-backed and their
slogan is "Death to America! Death to Israel!" Yet, they are also staunch
-enemies of -al-Qaida. On one hand, US President Barack Obama's top
counter-terrorism advisor called Hadi after the Houthis takeover and
strongly condemned the rebel group "who have resorted to violence to disrupt
Yemen's peaceful transition and threaten the country's stability".
Yet on the other, a US drone struck an al-Qaida stronghold in southern Yemen
last month, just as the Houthis were moving to fight the militants in the
same area. "The Houthis have done in a few weeks what the US and Yemeni
military has not been able to do," the official continued. "They brought the
fight to al-Qaida. But they have not learned from others' mistakes," the
official concludes. "They are still engaged in revenge killing and power
grabbing. They won't last for ever."
According to the BBC, an assessment by security consultants Five Dimensions
put the situation in stark terms: "Yemen is moving slowly from a semi-failed
state to a fully failed state, and to that extent Yemen is no better than
Libya."
Al-Radhi, the country's ambassador to London, said all was not lost but that
Yemen urgently needs the billions of dollars in pledged aid to be delivered.
"We have seen almost none of it," one of his advisers said, adding that the
40-strong group of nations known collectively as "Friends of Yemen" have
done little more than talk about the problem.
YemenFollowers of the Shi'ites Houthi group perform the traditional Baraa
dance as they celebrate Eid al-Ghadir in Sanaa October 12, 2014. The
celebration marks al-Ghadir day, a day Shi'ites believe Prophet Muhammad
nominated his cousin, Imam Ali, to be his successor Khaled Abdullah/Reuters
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