Date: Fri Dec 5 16:15:11 2014
Al-Bashir's meaningless machismo
Gamal Nkrumah sees ominously darkening skies ahead for Sudan if Omar
Al-Bashir continues to grandstand
Friday,05 December, 2014
History is riddled with idle agreements. Sudanese history is no exception.
Yet, Sudan is currently in the throes of arguably its deepest crises since
the independence of South Sudan in 2011 - a zinger in yet another
potentially secessionist crisis while embroiled in a maelstrom of unavailing
agreements. The Sudanese government and the forces of the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) espouse diametrically opposed ideologies.
The Sudanese government's adamantly militant Islamist orientation is
juxtaposed against the SPLM-N's unrelentingly secularist agenda.
Sudanese human development indices serve some purposes even as they create
deliberate distortions. Countless inventions have been spawneda from chance
interactions with protagonists that occasionally spark the key breakthroughs
that engender ceasefires and peace agreements. Nevertheless, as the Sudanese
crisis intensifies, Khartoum faces limited choices. The ongoing wars in Blue
Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur will dangerously inflame tensions in the
war-torn country. The SPLM-N insists on autonomy and the Sudanese
government's dire need to accelerate political reforms to eliminate
corruption and nepotism, and embed the rule of law, based on a secular legal
system as opposed to Islamic Sharia Law.
Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir received a message from the chief
of the African Union's mediation team for Sudan, former South African
President Thabo Mbeki. The full content of the message was not disclosed in
the local Sudanese media. Nonetheless, the crux of the matter is the
speeding up of peace talks in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. And the
bone of contention is the right to self-determination of provinces whose
population is invariably sympathetic to the SPLM-N, those with a vested
interest in secularism.
Militant Islamism should not be a platform for Khartoum. Blue Nile and South
Kordofan are the two Sudanese provinces with a non-Muslim majority
population. Without explicit reform commitments, the two least Arabised
provinces of Sudan along with predominantly Muslim Darfur are destined to
breakaway from Sudan. This is a horrifying prospect for Sudanese democracy
and good governance. Sudan's neighbours, too, would have to contend with a
frenetic militant Islamist regime in their midst. Sudan's political malaise
would be unlikely to end soon and particularly since it is being rancorously
truncated. Perhaps it is not surprising that Al-Bashir as the pan-Arab and
Sudanese media today depict him is a trifle less portly than his pudgy
physique broadcasts.
Such scepticism must be brushed aside. Al-Bashir should rid himself of any
illusions that he is the Sudan's saviour. Al-Bashir is not respected by his
own ruling party, the National Congress Party, to the extent he once was. He
has presided over the break up of Sudan and many Sudanese have serious
misgivings about the secession of South Sudan.
President Al-Bashir is certainly not the reformist revolutionary leader he
initially pledged to be way back when he usurped power in a 1989 coup
d'etat. His tenure has sadly been ineluctably disappointing, much to the
chagrin of the long-suffering Sudanese masses.
Such reluctance of the Sudanese people to accept further breakups is
understandable. The state minister at the Federal Government Ministry, Ali
Majok, disclosed in an unprecedented public revelation the real reasons for
the Sudanese government's inability to sign a peace accord regarding the
disputed oil-rich enclave of Abyei.
In Al-Watan newspaper, Majok, the traditional head of the Shura Council of
the Arab Rezeigat tribe, stated categorically that infighting within the
ruling party, and especially between opposing factions of the late
Al-Magjoub Khalifa and ex-vice president Ali Othman Mohamed Taha, resulted
in the abrogation of draft agreements concerning Abyei.
It is against this grim backdrop that the leader of the opposition Umma
Party, Sadig Al-Mahdi, convened discussions Monday in Addis Ababa with the
leaders of the Darfur-based opposition armed group, the Justice and Equality
Party.
Al-Bashir has offered the opposition nothing in return for cooperation on
prickly political topics. While Al-Bashir closed the door on his
adversaries' overtures, they in turn thrived among the tangled traditions of
the fractured Sudanese opposition. What would really bolster Al-Bashir's
credibility is an admission that Sudan is a multi-ethnic, multi-racial and
multi-religious microcosm of Africa.
Al-Bashir is undisguisedly the most powerful and popular leader Sudan has
had since independence as far as his militant Islamist apologists are
concerned. To his detractors, however, he is a brutish tyrant. Nepotism and
political calculations in the secret system of appointments to key
ministerial portfolios in which personal loyalty to Al-Bashir invariably
trumps merit are the order of the day.
Al-Bashir has consistently tightened his grip on power signalling to the
Sudanese opposition to take a break from politics. In some respects,
Al-Bashir has been shrewd. For instance, he has appointed his opponent's
son, Abdul-Rahman Sadig Al-Mahdi as senior political advisor to the Sudanese
president.
Flanked by motley advisers, Al-Bashir is keen to inject younger blood into
his party and has in the process alienated some of his erstwhile aides.
Whether the Sudanese opposition would climb back into contention will remain
unclear for some time. Al-Bashir is clear-eyed about the Sudanese
opposition's shortcomings. He cleaves to a very prescribed and tethered view
of Sudan from an Islamist perspective. It is this intransigence that has
proved to be the principal stumbling block in negotiations with his
opponents. He rules Sudan with an iron rod in an era of appalling violence
and in this respect retribution is so much easier than reconciliation.
Al-Bashir's meaningless machismo
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