Houthis' advance threatens Red Sea countries
Author
<
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/contents/authors/walaa-hussein.html> Walaa
Hussein
Translator(s)Cynthia Milan
December 8, 2014
CAIRO - In light of the current
<
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/yemen-gulf-initiative-fai
ls-aims.html> crisis in Yemen and the control of Sanaa by
<
http://altagreer.com/%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A
D%D9%88%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%A1-
%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D
8%B7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82-%D8%A5> Houthi armed groups, Egyptian experts predict
that
<
http://www.youm7.com/story/2014/11/3/%D8%AE%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B1_%D8%B9%D8%B3%
D9%83%D8%B1%D9%89__%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1_%D9%82%D8%AF_%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%AE%D9%84_
%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7_%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84_%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%A9_%
D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%AB> Egypt would intervene in the conflict to
prevent the Houthis from gaining control of the strait of Bab al-Mandeb on
the
<
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/egypt-administrative-prov
inces-partition.html> Red Sea, in defense of Egyptian and Gulf security.
Commander of the Egyptian navy, Osama al-Jundi, openly declared the
<
http://yemennow.net/news298774.html> navy's readiness to protect the
country's territorial waters, economic interests and the Egyptian coast in
all directions and to deal with any risks that might threaten them.
At the same time, a number of initiatives were launched in an attempt to
ward off this war. Egypt and Saudi Arabia both received an invitation from
Isaias Afwerki, the Eritrean president, to start negotiations to find a way
to maintain the
<
https://www1.youm7.com/story/2014/11/16/%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%84_%D8%
AC%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%89_%D8%B3%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B1_
%D8%A5%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7_%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D9
%87%D8%B1%D8%A9__%D8%A5%D8%AB> security of the countries along the Red Sea.
Former secretary-general of the Arab League,
<
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2014/01/egypt-amr-moussa-interview
-sisi-referendum.html> Amr Moussa, issued a
<
http://akhbarelyom.com/news/newdetails/341436/1/%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%89-%D
9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%88.html> joint statement with former
Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. They called for an Arab initiative to
work on restoring the unity of the Yemeni army and mobilizing to restore
security. In addition, they would eliminate all usage of weapons in Yemeni
cities to move forward with the parliamentary elections.
Moussa and Siniora warned about the division in Yemen and the danger it
poses to Arab security from the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea, if the Houthis,
who are supported by Iran, reach Bab al-Mandeb strait.
The initiative was made by Moussa and Siniora after the failure of the
<
http://www.raialyoum.com/archives/178449> Gulf Cooperation Council
initiative for organizing the transition in Yemen, since the terms of this
initiative were not implemented and most importantly, the restructuring of
the Yemeni army never happened.
Siniora and Moussa's statement also mentioned former Yemeni President Ali
Abdullah Saleh's link to the ongoing events in Yemen, as well as his
alliance with the Houthis in preparation for his return to power in an
agreement for the joint management of the country.
According to the
<
http://www.youm7.com/story/2014/11/15/%D8%B3%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A5%D8%B1
%D9%8A%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%B1%D8
%A9--%D8%AC%D9%86%D9%88%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8
%A3%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%89-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D9%88%D9%86%D9%86%D8%
AA%D8%B8%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%82/1952234#.VHbj0_mUeSo> Eritrean
ambassador to Egypt, Cairo welcomed Afwerki's initiative to sponsor a
meeting for the Red Sea countries to maintain security in the face of the
Houthis. But, it did not take actual steps to implement it and did not call
the rest of the Red Sea countries to negotiate measures needed to protect
security in the region. The ambassador said that this is due to Arab
concerns about involving Israel as one of the Red Sea states in the
initiative. The Eritrean ambassador thus reiterated his country's call to
implement the initiative without including Israel.
Commenting on the Eritrean initiative, the Egyptian ambassador to Eritrea
and former assistant to the secretary of state for African affairs, Mona
Omar, told Al-Monitor that the Houthis' strength can never match the
military power of one of the Red Sea countries (Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Jordan,
Israel, Egypt, Eritrea and Djibouti). "I don't think that the threat posed
by the Houthis to the Red Sea countries could spark a war in the true sense
of a 'war,'" said Omar. She said, "Since this group is exactly like all
terrorist movements that currently exist in a number of Arab countries and
that are going to be eliminated."
She added, "The issue of Somali pirates still casts a shadow on the Red Sea
and there are still the naval fleets belonging to a number of countries at
the entrance to the Red Sea. The Egyptian maritime patrol is indeed present
in the Egyptian territorial waters and they [the Houthis] will be dealt with
in the event that they cross the Yemeni territorial waters."
Regarding the possibility of Egypt engaging in a war against the Houthis in
the event that they pose a threat on the Red Sea region and the new Suez
Canal project, security expert and founder of the
<
http://www.akhbarak.net/articles/16459242-%D9%85%D8%A4%D8%B3%D8%B3_%27%D9%8
5%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%AD%D8%A9_%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A8_%
D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%27_%D9%8A%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8_%D8%A3
%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%A7_> International Terrorism Association, Gen.
Rida Yacoub, told Al-Monitor, "This war may not be a direct military one, as
is the case currently in the Sinai [Peninsula] between Egyptian forces and
terrorist groups. It will be an indirect war between Egypt and the Houthis,
through the support of the Yemeni army that will provide plans, ideas and
intelligence data. It will also supply [Egypt] with the necessary equipment
and techniques to get rid of the Houthis."
He stressed that it would result in the arrest of groups, and Yemen would
have to apply the same measures on the Houthis to prevent the establishment
of a safe haven for them and the flow of money between countries. Moreover,
Egypt and Yemen would have to be provided with modern techniques by the
Counter-Terrorism Committee in the UN Security Council to eliminate them.
"Libya did the same with Ansar al-Sharia, and succeeded in having the
Security Council issue a resolution for their elimination," Yacoub said.
He added, "Egypt might resort to closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait - as it
did during the Yom Kippur War with Israel in October 1973 - to prevent any
communication between the Houthis and other terrorist groups in Egypt, and
in Sinai in particular."
On the subject of association by Iran's Shiite regime with the Houthis in
Yemen, security and strategic expert Maj. Gen. Hossam Sweilem told
Al-Monitor, "Exactly as Iran controlled the power in Lebanon through the
Shiite party Hezbollah, Iran is attempting to control the regime in Yemen
through the Houthis, who are also Shiites."
He said, "Egypt must anticipate and prepare to intervene militarily to
prevent the Houthis closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait because it would put it
under the control of Iran - like the Strait of Hormuz [in the Persian Gulf].
This would have negative effects on the Suez Canal and would make it a
battle of life or death for Egypt. I do not think that the international
community would allow this to happen."
Regarding the possibility of deploying international forces to maintain
security in the Red Sea area, Sweilem said, "It is difficult and will not be
allowed by either the Yemenis who dominate the eastern side of the Bab
al-Mandeb strait, nor the Eritreans who control the western side."
He added, "There is a military base and coastal Iranian missiles on the
Eritrean coast. Sudan is one of the most important countries on the Red Sea
and it has become so in part from this dependence on Iran. In addition,
there are Iranian weapon factories in Khartoum, including the Yarmouk
factory [that was <
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-20050781> bombed in
October 2012]."
Many initiatives were presented to solve the issue of the Houthis reaching
the area of Bab al-Mandeb and threatening the security of the Red Sea
countries. However, none of them were effectively initiated. It is this that
threatens the outbreak of military confrontations in the region in the event
of the Houthis' anticipated arrival to the strait area.
Received on Mon Dec 08 2014 - 17:03:03 EST