December 15, 2014: More and more al Shabaab groups are leaving central
Somalia and heading for the Kenyan border, where they have access to the
large number of Somali refugees (in well supplied Kenyan camps) and ethnic
Somalis long resident in northern Kenya. These Somali Kenyans are easier to
convince or coerce into cooperating with the Islamic terrorists than the
Kenyans belonging to one of the many black African tribes native to East
Africa south of Somalia. Al Shabaab is still angry at Kenya for sending
troops into southern Kenya and, with the aid of local clan militias, set up
a new government in the area that had long been under al Shabaab control.
Traditionally Somalis invade Kenya not the other way around and the fact
that the Kenyans got away with their “invasion” of southern Somali still
annoys al Shabaab (and a lot of other Somalis.) So al Shabaab is moving
south for revenge as well as to get away from peacekeepers, anti-al Shabaab
militias and the trained soldiers the government now has available. The al
Shabaab forces along the border are not yet strong enough to go to war with
the Kenyan Army and the local Somali militias, but terrorism is another
matter. So groups of al Shabaab gunmen have been crossing the border and
murdering non-Moslem civilians they come across. This has angered Kenyans
who are demanding that their government do something. In response Kenyan
warplanes have bombed suspected al Shabaab camps and Kenyan troops are
aggressively seeking out al Shabaab men on both sides of the border. Despite
that there is panic among non-Moslem Kenyans living near the Somali border
and thousands are leaving.
Kenya currently has 3,000 troops on the Somali side of the border and even
more on the Kenyan side (in addition to police). The government is
apparently going to send more troops and police to the Somali border and
Kenyans up there who are ethnic Somalis are being asked to help. Some do,
but many do not and a few actually support al Shabaab. At the moment the
Kenyan security forces are held in low esteem by most Kenyans and political
and military leaders are under a lot of pressure to actually do something.
The UN and other foreign aid groups gave become increasingly strident about
foreign donors not providing enough money to deal with growing food
shortages in Somalia. So far only about a third of the money (over 800
million) needed to handle the coming food crisis has been pledged. There are
20 percent more Somalis in need of aid this year than last. Foreign donors
are reluctant to spend a lot of money on Somali aid because over the last
two decades so much aid has been stolen by Islamic terrorists, warlords,
bandits and whatever passes for government. The drought in 2011 killed a
quarter of a million, largely because al Shabaab banned the “un-Islamic”
food aid from those needing it. But the donor nations note that the aid
groups play down the theft and subsequent investigations revealed this and
the fact that the aid groups simply paid off the thieves, often with a
portion of the aid. Donor nations want better security before they provide
all that is demanded.
The major problem in Somalia has long been corruption and when this problem
is actually measured Somali finds that it has the dubious distinction of
being best at something they would rather not be. Thus a recent
international study found Somalia one of the three most corrupt nations in
the world. Corruption in this Transparency International Corruption
Perception Index is measured on a 1 (most corrupt) to 100 (not corrupt)
scale. The three most corrupt nations have a rating of 8 (Afghanistan, North
Korea and Somalia) and the least corrupt are 91 (New Zealand and Denmark). A
look at this index each year adds an element of reality to official
government pronouncements. African nations are the most corrupt, followed by
Middle Eastern ones.
Somalia also excels at terrorist violence. A recent terrorism survey (Global
Terrorism Index) found that five nations (Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Nigeria and Syria, in that order) accounted for 80 percent of all terrorism
related deaths in 2013 and even more in 2014. Four Islamic terrorist
organizations (ISIL, al Qaeda, Boko Haram and the Taliban) account for
nearly 70 percent of all terrorist deaths. Many of the lesser terror groups
are also Islamic. In fact, of the top ten nations by terrorist activity
(Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria, Syria, India, Somalia, Yemen,
Philippines and Thailand) only India and the Philippines had a significant
minority of terrorist deaths that were not carried out by Moslems. In those
two countries the minority terrorists were leftist rebels who had not
noticed the collapse of radical socialism in 1989. Meanwhile the rapid
growth in Islamic terrorism violence caused the total number of terrorist
acts to increase 44 percent in 2013 over 2012. Al Shabaab does what it can
to keep Somalia competitive.
December 14, 2014: In Mogadishu al Shabaab fired several mortar shells at
the largest peacekeeper base in the country. There were no casualties. This
was apparently retaliation for an operation earlier in the day that arrested
200 men suspected of belonging to or supporting al Shabaab.
December 13, 2014: In central Somalia (Galguduud province) fifteen people
(five soldiers and ten Sufi militiamen) died when troops drove the Sufi
militia out of a village they had occupied. Since late 2011 Sufi militiamen
have been again fighting al Shabaab gunmen in central Somalia. In the first
eight months after the Sufi Ahlu Suna Waljama militia went to war with al
Shabaab, the Islamic terrorists lost control of most key towns they held in
central Somalia. Sufis are believers in a more mystical and peaceful form of
Islam, and are looked down on by many radical Sunni groups. But the Somali
Sufis got tired of being harassed by al Shabaab, and in 2008 began to arm
and organize themselves for defense. In 2010 the Sufi militias became allies
with the TNG (Transitional National Government) and Ethiopia, which keeps
lots of troops on their Somali border, occasionally crossing into Somalia in
order to discourage al Shabaab from raiding into Ethiopia. Since 2013 there
has been growing friction between local Sufi leaders and the officials the
national government has sent to set up local government. The Sufi complain
that they are being ignored and taken advantage of. The corruption of the
government officials doesn’t help either.
December 12, 2014: In the Bakool area (175 kilometers north of Mogadishu)
seven women have been killed because of an al Shabaab effort to intimidate
soldiers. It began last week when al Shabaab kidnapped and beheaded the wife
of a local soldier and another woman who cooked for the soldiers. In revenge
soldiers seized ten women they believed were married to al Shabaab members
and began killing them. Five of the ten were killed before tribal elders
showed up and persuaded the soldiers to stop.
December 6, 2014: In Mogadishu parliament voted (153 to 80) to remove the
current prime minister from power and thus give the president another chance
to find a prime minister who will do what the president tells him. The
dismissed prime minister and the president have been openly feuding for
months over who gets appointed to senior positions. This is not about
appointing the most effective officials, but the ones who will steal the
most for the president or prime minister (the two most powerful politicians
currently in government.) A recent UN study found that many officials will
steal over 70 percent of the government funds they have control over.
December 5, 2014: In the central Somalia town of Baidoa al Shabaab set off a
car bomb in a crowd and another bomb in a café that killed 15 and wounded
three times as many.
December 4, 2014: One of Kenya’s F-5 jet fighters crashed on its way back
from a bombing mission along the Somali border. Al Shabaab claimed to have
shot down the fighter but the pilot reported mechanical problems before the
jet went down. Kenya has obtained 29 F-5s since the late 1970s and about
twenty are still in service and several more are being refurbished. Fifteen
F-5s were recently refurbished after being obtained from Jordan. The F-5s is
a 12 ton fighter roughly similar to the 1950s era MiG-21, and is a
contemporary of that Russian fighter. The F-5 was built mainly for export to
nations that could not afford the top-line Western fighters, but did not
want the MiG-21s. The F-5 is normally armed with two 20mm cannon, and three
tons of missiles and bombs. Introduced in 1962, over 2,200 were built before
production ended in 1987.
December 3, 2014: In Mogadishu an al Shabaab suicide car bomber attacked a
UN convoy killing four people (all security guards or civilian bystanders).
The UN personnel were safe within armored trucks that are used to transport
them from the heavily guarded UN compound to the equally well guarded
airport.
Just across the border in Kenya (Garissa) someone threw a grenade into a
café and wounding two people.
December 2, 2014: Just across the border in Kenya (outside Mandera) al
Shabaab killed 36 non-Moslem workers at a quarry. As a result of this
atrocity the Kenyan president fired his Interior Minister and the head of
the national police promptly retired. Later in the day gunmen attacked a pub
near the Somali border, killing one customer and wounding three others. Al
Shabaab is violently opposed to alcoholic beverages and all sorts of other
things (like school for girls).
November 26, 2014: The EU (European Union) agreed to keep its 128 military
trainers in Mogadishu for another year. In 2014 the EU instructors trained
1,200 Somali troops and expects to train the same number in 2015.
November 24, 2014: Many Kenyans doubt their government’s claims that
security forces quickly killed over a hundred al Shabaab men in the wake of
the Mandera massacre. Al Shabaab denies that they suffered any losses and
the government simply says that air force warplanes bombed al Shabaab camps
along the Somali border while ground troops pursued and caught some of the
Mandera killers. If that is so, Kenyans wonder why there are not photos or
prisoners shown to prove it. Kenyans are losing faith in their security
forces.
November 22, 2014: Just across the border in Kenya (outside Mandera) al
Shabaab gunmen stopped a bus and killed 28 non-Moslem passengers, while
leaving the Moslem passengers unharmed.