http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-What-threat-does-an-Iranian-backed-Yemen-pose-to-Israel-385467
12.23.2014
What threat does an Iranian-backed Yemen pose to Israel?
Expert says Jerusalem should explore cooperation with Red Sea
countries to avert sea traffic risk; Alliance unlikely, says former
deputy national security adviser.
Iranian-backed Shi’ite Houthi rebels’ takeover of Yemen’s capital in
September has raised alarms not only among its regional Sunni rivals,
such as neighboring Saudi Arabia, but also in Israel.
If the Houthis are able to solidify control over the southernmost
country on the Arabian Peninsula, which lying on the Red Sea is
Israel’s outlet from its southern port in Eilat, it could create a
risk for Israel and other countries’ sea traffic.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti could also
be affected if Yemen would become an Iranian hub. If any of these
countries would cooperate with Israel to counter such a scenario still
remains up in the air.
Reuters revealed details of Iranian military and financial support to
the Houthis before and after their takeover of Sanaa, according to
Yemeni, Western and Iranian sources.
Houthis are Shi’ites from the Zaydi branch, also known as Fivers, who
believe in the first five imams after Muhammad, up until the fifth,
Zayd ibn Ali. Most Shi’ites are Twelvers, including the leadership of
Iran.
Riyadh has suspended aid to Yemen, angered by the Houthis’ growing
power, while Iran publicly welcomed the Houthi victory.
A senior Yemeni security official said Iran had steadily supported the
Houthis, who have fought the central government since 2004 from their
northern stronghold of Saadah.
As attacks continue between the Houthis and their domestic Sunni
opponents, it could erupt into a larger sectarian war similar to what
is raging in Iraq and Syria.
It is necessary to understand that the Shi’ite-Sunni dichotomy is key
to understanding what is going on in the region, not only in Yemen,
Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern
Studies at Tel Aviv University, told The Jerusalem Post.
Rabi refers to Israel’s “periphery doctrine” – the forming of
alliances with surrounding non-Arab states and minorities in order to
overcome hostility from neighboring Arab countries – in order to
emphasize that this kind of thinking should be guiding Israel’s policy
in the region and when it comes to a an Iranian takeover of Yemen.
The Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the growing enmity of the Islamist
AK Party in Turkey have contributed to an altered regional strategic
map for Israel today.
“The saying – the enemy of my enemy can be my best friend – is really
relevant,” said Rabi.
Asked if Israel could counter an Iranian-controlled Yemen by forging
alliances with eastern African countries along the Red Sea, Rabi
agrees and points out that a common denominator in the region that
opposes Iranian hegemony could also perhaps include some kind of
understanding with Saudi Arabia.
Just as Israel has used the periphery strategy against Iran by
befriending Azerbaijan, says Rabi, the Jewish state needs to look at
the map and identify where its opportunities lie.
Iran sees itself as the advancing hegemon in the region, notes Rabi,
adding that an Iranian Revolutionary Guard official was recently
quoted as saying that the Islamic Republic of Iran now controls four
Middle Eastern capitals: Sanaa, Beirut, Baghdad and Damascus.
Rabi goes on to argue that oil prices are dropping due to local
developments. However, he adds that the Saudis are not responsible for
lower prices, but they are not crying over it as they know that their
political foes, Iran and Russia, are being hit hard by this.
Chuck Freilich, a senior fellow at the Belfer Center of Harvard’s
Kennedy School of Government and a former deputy national security
adviser in Israel, said “a potential takeover of this sort has highly
negative ramifications for Israel, both in its own right and as part
of the broader battle for influence under way in the Middle East today
between Iranian-backed Shi’ite forces and Sunni forces, under the
leadership of Islamic State and others.”
“The outcome of this tectonic clash will be negative for Israel,
regardless of who ultimately gains the upper hand,” he said.
Israel’s interests in Yemen include the preservation of the freedom of
navigation through the Red Sea and, of course, preventing the growing
spread of Iranian influence throughout the region, he said.
Unfortunately, there is little Israel can do to prevent Iran’s growing
influence, just as it was unable to prevent Islamic State and other
Islamist groups from gaining ground in neighboring Syria, added
Freilich.
“The Saudis and other moderate Arab countries, along with the primary
international actors, have to be in the forefront of this issue,
Israel can only watch and hope for the best, while taking defensive
measures.”
Asked about any possible cooperation from other states lying on the
Red Sea such as Saudi Arabia or Eritrea, Freilich responded that at
most he predicts very limited cooperation, if that.
“I am not a believer in the new grand alliance between Israel and the
Saudis, or the other Sunni states against Iran,” he said.
“They may hate Iran and have a common interest with us, but they won’t
work with us in any significant way.”
Reuters contributed to this report.
Received on Tue Dec 23 2014 - 10:13:07 EST