A joint statement issued last week is seen as a positive step in improving
Egypt-Ethiopia relations. However, other steps must follow, reports Doaa
El-Bey
Friday,04 July, 2014
Egypt and Ethiopia agreed to boost their mutual relations last week when
they issued a joint statement that underlined the basic principles governing
their relation: Ethiopia will understand the importance of the Nile River to
Egypt and Egypt will appreciate the Ethiopian need for development.
The statement presents an important change in the relation between the two
countries, according to Hani Raslan, head of the Sudan and Nile Basin
countries studies programme at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic
Studies. However, it remains a step that should be followed by negotiations,
which are not expected to be easy and need time and effort.
Helmi Shaarawi, former director of the Arab African Research Centre, views
the statement as important and balanced. "But it focused on mutual interests
and mutual benefit and refrained from mentioning the historic rights that
Egypt adheres to and Addis Ababa refuses to acknowledge," he said.
In the joint statement issued last week, Egypt and Ethiopia agreed to form a
joint committee in the upcoming three months to enhance bilateral relations
between the two countries and continue discussions on the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD). The statement was read by Egypt Foreign Minister
Sameh Shoukri and his Ethiopian counterpart, Tedros Adhanom, last Friday.
The statement, which emphasised the two countries' commitment to the
principles of international law, mutual respect and dialogue, reflected the
positive atmosphere in which it was issued.
Shoukri described the statement as a "new chapter" in relations between the
two countries that provides new momentum for consultation and cooperation.
However the most important steps are the immediate resumption of the
Tripartite Commission, the commitment of the Ethiopian government to avoid
any potential damage that could result from the dam currently being built on
the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, and the commitment of the Egyptian government to
constructive communication with Ethiopia.
Raslan regarded the greatest achievement of the statement that it put the
crisis between the two states onto the track of negotiations.
Negotiations between the two states, he said, reached a deadlock after the
failure of the last round of talk in January followed by a failed visit of
the Egyptian minister of irrigation to Addis Ababa. After that, Egypt
declared that there would not be any negotiation unless there is something
new in the Ethiopian stand.
"Now, after the election of the president, Egypt can take the initiative and
put the crisis back on the negotiations track," he added.
The statement came after President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi met with Ethiopia's
Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, in Equatorial Guinea's capital Malabo
at the African Union summit. That meeting, according to Shoukri, aimed to
open a new chapter in relations between the two countries and was conducted
in an atmosphere of openness, mutual understanding and cooperation.
Positive developments in Egypt-Ethiopia relations were given a further boost
by Al-Sisi's brief visit to Sudan on his way back from the AU summit.
The visit was very important, according to Shaarawi, because it indicated
that Nile Basin problems would be resolved in a collective way. "Sudan has a
direct responsibility towards resolving the dam issue and other issues
related to the Nile Basin. It has recently adopted a change of stance on the
issue of the dam and the Entebbe Agreement. Al-Sisi's visit pointed to the
importance of collective efforts and Egyptian-Sudanese cooperation in
dealing with Nile Basin problems," he said.
Al-Sisi's visit to Khartoum aimed to strengthen bilateral relations with
Sudan. After the meeting, the two countries' presidents said at a joint
press conference that the upcoming period would witness more cooperation
between the two states in different fields.
Al-Sisi invited Sudan President Omar Al-Bashir to visit Egypt for more
discussion on development plans between the two countries. Al-Bashir
welcomed the invitation and expressed his willingness to visit Egypt soon.
Raslan said that the Al-Sisi visit could benefit Egypt-Sudan relations first
by easing tensions after the clear support of the Sudanese regime for the
Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt. After that regime was gone, he said,
Sudan tried to improve its relations with Egypt. Sudan's minister of defence
paid Egypt two visits in February, the foreign minister came to Egypt in
March, and a high level delegation headed by Al-Bashir's deputy attended
Al-Sisi's inauguration.
"Al-Sisi visit came to turn a new page in relations," he added.
An improvement in mutual relations is likely to be reflected in Sudan's
stance on the Ethiopian dam. Given that Sudan is an important party in that
issue, Raslan elaborated, its contribution is likely to have a positive
effect on that issue.
The Ethiopian dam has been a source of concern for the Egyptian government
since May 2013, when images of the dam's construction stirred public anxiety
about its possible effects on Egypt's share of Nile water. Nearly 35 per
cent of the dam has been built.
However, Ethiopian officials insisted the dam would not harm Egypt.
Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan formed an independent tripartite technical
committee to study the possible effects of the dam. The committee issued a
report last year asking for more studies to be conducted on the dam to
assess the possible effect on Sudan and Egypt.
The Nile is the main source of water for Egypt - meeting some 95 per cent of
its water needs. Egypt takes 55 billion cubic metres annually from the Nile,
as stipulated in agreements signed in 1929 and 1959. Egypt insists on its
historic rights according to these agreements. Ethiopia said that these
agreements were signed with colonial powers and called for replacing them.
In 2010, the upstream states of Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania signed
the Entebbe Agreement in the Ugandan capital, aiming to seek a greater share
of Nile water. Burundi signed the agreement one year later.
Both Egypt and Sudan, for their part, rejected the agreement, fearing it
would affect their historical share of Nile water. Later, South Sudan signed
the agreement.
Tanzania has recently called for a review to the Entebbe Agreement, a step
that was regarded as positive in resolving current differences on the
Ethiopian dam.
Resuming the work of the tripartite technical committee and respecting
international law - as stipulated in last week's joint statement - could be
the first step towards resolution of the dam issue.
In addition, issuing the joint statement could contribute towards "changing
the strategic environment that surrounded the crisis and giving Egypt the
chance to build a network at regional and international levels that could
positively contribute towards resolving the GERD issue," Raslan said.