http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Ethiopia-Juba-troop-deployment-alters-regional-dynamics-/-/2558/2373022/-/3mpyhkz/-/index.html
Ethiopia's Juba deployment alters regional dynamics
By BARBARA AMONG The EastAfrican
Posted Saturday, July 5 2014 at 15:07
In Summary
- Experts still see the deployment as a potential game changer as it
places Ethiopia squarely at the centre of efforts to return peace to South
Sudan.
- Kenya and Rwanda are supposed to contribute troops for the mission but
are yet to do so. The so-called Troika countries -- the US, Norway and UK --
who had promised to finance the force are yet to commit funding to the
mission.
- Ethiopia needs to play a neutral force and not be seen to side with Dr
Machar, since Uganda has declared support for President Kiir and its troops
are fighting alongside the South Sudanese army.
The first group of 90 Ethiopian peacekeepers have arrived in the South
Sudan capital Juba, as the elements of Igad's regional Protection and
Deterrent Force begin to fall into place.
Their arrival a fortnight ago, however, does not pave the way for the
near-term withdrawal of Ugandan troops from the conflict as the numbers are
far below the required 2,500 boots on the ground.
But experts still see the deployment as a potential game changer as it
places Ethiopia squarely at the centre of efforts to return peace to South
Sudan.
It also raises questions on how the Ugandan and Ethiopian militaries will
relate in the volatile country. The two countries are said to have held a
couple of high-level meetings in the past four months.
Commenting on the impact of this on Uganda's tenure in Juba, Uganda
People's Defence Force deputy spokesperson Maj Henry Obbo said: "The force
that has arrived is very small and they are here just to prepare the ground
for the regional force. When the other units are fully on the ground, we
shall withdraw."
The Riek Machar side in the conflict has demanded the withdrawal of Ugandan
troops as a precondition for further progress in the peace negotiation.
Igad confirmed the Ethiopian deployment. "The information that is publicly
available on the force at the moment is scanty. What I can tell you
certainly is that the Igad Monitoring and Verification Mechanism now forms
part of UNMISS under the mission's reinvigorated mandate -- and a first
detachment of Ethiopian troops within the Igad MVM PF arrangement arrived
in Juba towards the third week of last month," said Igad spokesperson
Tigist Hailu.
Kenya and Rwanda are supposed to contribute troops for the mission but are
yet to do so. The so-called Troika countries -- the US, Norway and UK -- who
had promised to finance the force are yet to commit funding to the mission.
The regional force is expected to provide protection for the Igad monitors
investigating human-rights abuses and protect key installation in addition
to performing UNMISS tasks.
It will also replace the estimated 4,000 Ugandan troops that have been
standing between former vice president Riek Machar's rebels and the
government in Juba.
The 2,500 Igad troops are supposed to form part of the 12,500 strong United
Nations Mission in South Sudan.
Currently, UNMISS has 7,000 troops on the ground, a number it is supposed
to top up by 3,000.
However, a key challenge is the pace of deployment of the additional forces
as well as the disposition of these forces in fulfilling the mandate to
protect civilians.
Though the UNMISS troops are supposed to deploy in August, it remains
unclear what the deployment schedule will be for the approximately 2,500
troops expected to serve in the Igad Protection Force under the UNMISS
chain of command.
A related issue is the anticipated participation of an infantry battalion
from China in UNMISS. China has a strong economic stake in the oil sector
in South Sudan, and it has been reported that it may primarily be
interested in defending its workers at oil facilities.
"A key question is how amenable these troops will be to protecting
civilians not directly linked to these facilities," said the UN Security
Council report for June.
While Ethiopia is also hosting and chairing the peace negotiations,
information indicates that the Security Council last week tipped an
Ethiopian general to command the enlarged UNMISS force.
The new role puts Ethiopia at the centre of the South Sudan war.
Ethiopia already has over 2,000 troops as part of the UN troops in the
Abyei region, the contested border area of South Sudan and Sudan. This UN
group is also commanded by an Ethiopian general.
"This may turn out to be a game changer. The burden of bringing peace may
fall on them now that other countries that were supposed to deploy are
quiet," said regional security analyst David Pulkol, formerly chief of
Uganda's external intelligence agency.
"Ethiopia is fed up with the ping pong between Machar and Kiir. They want
to see an end to the war and have the capacity to even deploy 22,000 troops
or more. The peace talks are not making any headway now; the talks were
postponed indefinitely and we need a way forward," said an Ethiopian
official who preferred anonymity.
Uganda deployed troops in South Sudan on December 15, 2013. In March,
Kampala said that it was ready to withdraw from South Sudan as soon as the
Igad led force was on the ground. However, as Uganda waits for the vacuum
to be filled, there is rethinking in Kampala on how they would work with
Ethiopia.
Ethiopia needs to play a neutral force and not be seen to side with Dr
Machar, since Uganda has declared support for President Kiir and its troops
are fighting alongside the South Sudanese army.
"They must find a working position with Ethiopia and stop the situation
from degenerating. The two countries must take a decision to identify and
empower a moderate group to take charge and isolate the extremists," said
Mr Pulkol.
Said the Ethiopian source: "The hard question for us is whether we are
just going to watch as the situation deteriorate. There is a political
vacuum and tension is building in Juba."
Received on Sun Jul 06 2014 - 13:39:25 EDT