July 28, 2014: In Mogadishu there were several armed clashes over the
weekend. It is unclear if these were because of criminals, clan feuds or al
Shabaab gunmen. Gunfire and explosions were heard at night in several
neighborhoods. Despite continued random violence like this the UN
peacekeepers believe their recent operations are destroying al Shabaab as an
organization, with many of the terror groups leaders being killed or
captured and the terrorist infrastructure (bomb workshops, bomb builders,
attack planners and suicide bomber recruiters) destroyed or disrupted. This
is the "decapitation" strategy used successfully by Israel since 2000 and
the U.S. since 2003. But this method is not a one-time application but a
continuous process. As long as the Islamic world supports a sense of
oppression (by non-Moslems) and entitlement (to use force to make people
convert to Islam or against Moslems who want to adopt another faith) there
will still be Islamic clerics encouraging young men that it is their
religious duty to become Islamic terrorists. Another problem in Somalia is
the endemic and extensive corruption. In effect there are few Somalis who
feel an obligation to serve a national government honestly. First loyalty is
to family and clan and this justifies all manner of theft when others
(people not of your clan or family) are involved. Foreigners are the best
victims because they are more easily deceived, for a while at least. A
growing number of investigative reports by foreign donor states document
extensive corruption at all levels of government and society in Somalia and
no signs that the stealing is diminishing. The corruption makes establishing
countrywide law and order very difficult and this provides an opportunity
for Islamic terrorist groups, who promise widespread order by imposing
Islamic law. But most Somalis do not want all aspects of Islamic law
(restrictions on women and entertainment) so groups like al Shabaab cause a
lot of mayhem but never take over.
This widespread amorality and general lack of what Westerners call "civil
society" makes it easier for Islamic terrorists to bribe government
employees and members of the security forces to facilitate terror attacks.
This also makes it more difficult for foreign aid groups to hire reliable
local staff. The pervasive corruption makes nation building by Somalis or
foreigners extremely difficult and often dangerous because most Somalis are
armed and prone to violence if opposed.
The big problem in Somalia is that the concept of a true democracy is not
well understood. But a council of clan leaders and warlords working out
deals is. But that means lots of bribes and other forms of corruption. It
also means no "civil society" and that's the result of tradition fighting
change to a standstill in Somalia. Tradition means the clan is the primary
loyalty, and everyone else is a potential victim, or enemy. Change means
civil society, where democracy and negotiation, not threats, bribes and
violence, are used to settle disputes. Old customs are hard to give up, and
Somalia has been resisting change for over a century. The new national
government does not have the military might to break the clan power, not yet
anyway and is not interested in giving up lucrative corruption
opportunities.
Many of the warlords have an exaggerated view of their own power (political
or military). It often seems impossible to make Somalis compromise and
cooperate. The traditional clan leadership (a council of clan elders) has
generally been eager to establish a working government, mainly because the
elders see their kinsmen dying from starvation and disease. But the powerful
warlords (some of them led by Moslem clerics) have been an opponent the clan
leadership did not have the firepower to force a settlement on. The warlords
caused death and fear as a matter of course, and only become approachable
when they see their power threatened. The warlords also fear that an
effective national government could eventually become powerful enough to
defeat and kill or imprison the warlords. Dealing with the warlords has
always been the key to Somalia's survival as a nation and ultimately the
other nations in the region (especially Ethiopia and Kenya) had to send in
troops to make it possible to establish a national government. While many
of the warlords were persuaded to cooperate (or be put out of business),
they are still gangsters at heart and national unity is not a high priority
for them.
Living off extortion and other criminal enterprises has always been popular
in Somalia where warlords who could cobble together and maintain a private
army were respected. The difference this time is that al Shabaab considers
itself part of an international Islamic terrorist movement (al Qaeda) and
welcomes foreign recruits. Generally, foreigners are not popular in Somali
culture and are looked on as source profit not welcome guests. These Islamic
terrorist foreigners are often used for suicide attacks because they are
more fanatic and not experienced fighters (and can't speak the local
languages). These foreigners boost morale among the Somali members because
it indicates international support for their cause. On the downside the
terror attacks kill more civilians than peacekeepers, police or local
soldiers and makes the Islamic terrorists unpopular with most Somalis. That
is not a concern with al Shabaab right now as they would rather be feared
than loved. This is especially true within the organization, where there are
still many Somali men who consider themselves al Shabaab but disagree with
the current leadership. Paranoia and ready recourse to violence still
defines the organization, which now considers itself part of an
international movement.
July 26, 2014: A U.S. government investigation revealed that corrupt Kenyan
Army officers with the Kenyan peacekeepers in Somalia have taken bribes to
keep the illegal charcoal trade going. Al Shabaab still has enough presence
in southern Somalia to enforce a $2 tax on each bag of charcoal smuggled out
to Arabia. Somali charcoal exports are banned by international sanctions
because it has long been a major source of income for Islamic terrorists. Al
Shabaab makes several million dollars a year from extorting those who
produce and transport the charcoal. Al Shabaab has also been accused to
involvement in smuggling illegal goods into Kenya as well. Such criminals
activities by terrorist organizations is a common way for these groups to
raise funds. For them it is not illegal but simply another manifestation of
"God's Will."
July 24, 2014: Peacekeepers report they have killed two senior al Shabaab
leaders and destroyed al Shabaab camps near the southern Somali town of
Jilib. This is one of the few areas left in Somalia where al Shabaab could
still openly go about their business. Peacekeepers have been fighting al
Shabaab in this area for months systematically finding and destroying the
numerous locations where al Shabaab personnel were living. The Islamic
terrorists would try to flee the air attacks and ground operations because
the better armed and trained peacekeepers would invariably win these
clashes. There is no other place they can flee to (that is not even more
hostile to them) and eventually the remaining al Shabaab men in the area are
killed, captured or leave (al Shabaab or seek another sanctuary even though
alternatives are more dangerous for them.) In other parts of the country,
especially in central Somalia around Baidoa, remaining groups of al Shabaab
gunmen are also a threat, but operate more as bandits than terrorists.
July 23, 2014: In Mogadishu al Shabaab gunmen killed a female member of
parliament and her bodyguard in a drive-by shooting. Al Shabaab does not
approve of women in politics.
July 20, 2014: In Kenya (Mombasa) gunmen shot and killed several people in a
Somali neighborhood and left leaflets saying the attack was in retribution
for recent al Shabaab attacks in the northeast that left over fifty Kenyans
dead.
July 19, 2014: In the south (Kismayo) an al Shabaab suicide bomber tried to
kill a prominent anti-terrorist militia leader. The target of the attack
survived but six others died. Al Shabaab denied responsibility for the
explosion and blamed bodyguards mishandling a rocket launcher for the
deaths. This response may have something to do with the fact that the target
was a former al Shabaab supporter. Al Shabaab often goes after traitors to
discourage other members of the group.
July 18, 2014: The government declared a severe drought in the southwest and
called for international food aid. The UN has increasing difficulty getting
other countries to donate for such relief operations because of the large
portion that is lost to corruption and extortion inside Somalia. Why donate
when so much of it is stolen and your staff are in constant danger of
attack.
In Kenya (the northeast coast) there was another al Shabaab attack, leaving
seven dead,
July 17, 2014: In Kenya opposition parties are pressuring the government to
reveal army casualties in Somalia and to pull Kenyan peacekeepers out of
Somalia. The government has refused calls to release these casualty figures
and one opposition group claims they have seen the data and that the deaths
exceed 3,000. Reports of corruption among army commanders in Somalia does
not help the government either. The growing number of al Shabaab attacks in
Kenya is persuading more Kenyans to call for bringing the troops home to
protect Kenyans from Somali terrorists. Meanwhile troops have been searching
along the Somali border in the northeast looking for al Shabaab terrorists
who have killed nearly a hundred Kenyans since June. Troops found and
destroyed four camps apparently used by the terrorists but have not yet
caught anyone. The government is eager to catch these terrorists because the
June attacks were in an area popular with foreign tourists and as a result
many tourists are staying away, which is a major economic blow to this part
of the country. Tourism is one of the two major sources of foreign exchange
for Kenya.
July 16, 2014: In the southeast (lower Shabelle region) peacekeepers caught
a man driving a car full of explosives, apparently headed for Mogadishu for
a suicide car bomb attack. The driver was interrogated.
In Mogadishu two attacks in the last two days left two people dead. One was
a bomb placed in a car downtown and the other was a similar attack outside
the city.
July 15, 2014: In Mogadishu soldiers and peacekeepers have arrested over 200
suspected al Shabaab in the last few days in an effort to disrupt continuing
al Shabaab attacks in the city. These counter-terror operations will
continue until al Shabaab activity in the city diminishes.
July 14, 2014: In the south an army commander was killed (Lower Shabelle
region) in an al Shabaab ambush.
July 10, 2014: In Mogadishu a remotely detonated bomb in a car wounded three
people. Al Shabaab was believed responsible. In Kenya, just south of the
Somali border, a bomb went off outside a government compound, causing no
casualties. This was apparently the work of Somali smugglers or Islamic
terrorists, who are angry at the Kenyans frequently closing the border in an
effort to disrupt terrorist and smuggling operations.
July 9, 2014: In the wake of the recent al Shabaab attack on the
presidential palace the president fired his Minister of National Security as
well as the heads of national police and intelligence.