Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 13:43:37 +0200
Libya is fast following Somalia's road to ruin - we must act now to stop it
- By Richard Bailey
Posted on
<http://africanarguments.org/2014/07/30/libya-is-fast-following-somalias-roa
d-to-ruin-we-must-act-now-to-stop-it-by-richard-bailey/> July 31, 2014
With Gaza, Ukraine and Iraq dominating the news, nobody is paying much
attention to the violence in Tripoli that is swiftly tipping Libya over the
edge. The UN and US have withdrawn and the UK have ordered all British
nationals out. Yet, the repercussions of losing Libya are monumental,
especially for Europe.
After twenty-three years searching for salvation, Somalia is taking little
steps towards recovery. Sadly, all the signs show that Libya is following
Somalia's route to disaster as the country plunges backwards into a conflict
so complex it could take decades to fix. The similarities with what went
wrong in Somalia and what is now going wrong in Libya are there for all to
see but we appear powerless to stop it.
<https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/libya?source=feed_text&story_id=1015215363
7250404> In Libya today, social cohesion and trust are dangerously
fragmenting on a geographic, tribal and religious basis in the midst of a
multi-dimensional battle - all underpinned by the power and influence of
oil.
With the loss of trust comes ever greater insecurity, the collapse of
politics and governance. Violent conflict and quickly thereafter economic
stagnation follows. In a short space of time, a once stable society
deteriorates into anarchy and looming poverty, like a cartoon character
falling through the floors of a high-rise building.
Libya's oil reserves and their potentially enormous value lie at the heart
of everything that has happened since the revolution; perverting and
corrupting all reason and logic in a country that had everything it needed
to flourish. Becoming the Dubai of North Africa was entirely within their
grasp. But oil has lubricated the greasy pole of politics and the funnel
down which the nation now spirals.
Libyans made a very simple calculation: value of oil sales divided by the
adult population equals vast wealth without lifting a finger. So the natural
post-revolution tendencies towards unity, entrepreneurship and hard work, so
evident in neighbouring Tunisia, evaporated instantly.
The conflict between revolutionaries and the quietly fuming Gadhafi
loyalists has smoldered since the day the tyrant died. But the most
prominent agenda has been that of the Muslim Brotherhood, who lost no time
in asserting itself and undermining politics. This led to in-fighting, the
paralysis of government and the gradual slide into anarchy and corruption,
with the repeated storming of Parliament by gunmen loyal to one side or
another seemingly the only means of resolution to any stalemate.
Battle number one therefore has been the battle for political control:
revolutionaries versus old guard Gadhafi loyalists; and tolerant,
conservative moderation versus illiberal, religiously inspired oppression.
Next comes the regional conflict, centering on the resistance of locally
based revolutionary militias to disarm. The lack of governance fed the sense
of insecurity and strengthened the claim of militias to be treated as de
facto police.
Therein lies battle number two, and the creeping power struggles between
regional militias, all sustained and paid for by government in the vain hope
of controlling them. City vs. city; East vs. West vs. South.
Rapidly entwined in this battle is the conflict surrounding the nation's
natural assets. Alongside each militia lie powerful biz-lords, thugs and
bullies, who saw the paralysis of government and seized their opportunity to
take control of state resources and utilities. Thereafter they became
instruments through which to dictate terms to the government and further
their own agendas. The government and Libyan people have repeatedly been
held to ransom with their own assets and have been entirely powerless to
prevent it.
And so then to the final battle - the battle for the soul of Libya.
In November last year, security in Benghazi was professional, overt,
confident and reassuring. Then came the December clash, with forces loyal to
the government clearing Ansar Sharia out of the city. The backlash came hard
and fast.
By January those same government soldiers had largely disappeared, manning
only checkpoints vital to their own security and wearing balaclavas to
prevent identification. The soldiers were scared and the civilian population
were correspondingly nervous. The battle had been lost. By March Ansar
Sharia had hit back with a wave of bombings and killings that brought
General Hiftar and his Operation Dignity to the fore.
Libya satisfies both essential reasons for foreign intervention. The
commercial rewards from a stable Libya would be exceptional. But it is
absolutely certain that losing Libya to either anarchy or an extreme Islamic
regime will hurt us.
Somalia's potential ruin concerned few until they started holding global
trade and the Gulf of Aden to ransom with piracy.
Libya's importance is more immediately concerning. Libya is Europe's
neighbour, separated by just 400 miles of quiet sea. It is the gateway into
and out of Africa through which people, weapons, drugs and a host of other
illicit trade will pass if untroubled passage can be purchased.
It is also the lynchpin in the ever-widening global onslaught of Al Qaeda
franchises across middle Asia, the Middle East and north Africa. But for
Egypt and Libya's resilience, Osama Bin Laden's disciples will walk freely
from Lahore in the East to Bamako in the West, and from Mombasa in the South
to Mosul in the North.
To rescue Libya and to save ourselves from Libya, we must look to Somalia
and the past four years for an answer.
An unwavering security presence provided by the African Union, and backed
comprehensively by the international community, established the much needed
security scaffolding within which the UN, the EU, UK, Turkey and others led
the political roadmap and began rebuilding the political machine and state
institutions.
Somalia's renaissance is far from complete. But, as ISIS dissolves any
vestige of progress in Iraq, it represents the only moderately successful
model.
Libya needs its oil production taken into trust with all proceeds funneled
directly into governance. It needs a comprehensive security operation
provided by African nations with the Libyan and continental interest at
heart. And it needs single-minded volunteer nations to lead an inclusive
state-building and governance operation.
Libya has not yet gone past the point of no return, but it soon will if we
do not act now - and act decisively.
<http://africanarguments.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/RichardBailey-e14066
34941686.jpg> RichardBaileyFormer Army Officer and Whitehall communications
officer, the author, Richard Bailey, is a Strategic Communications
Consultant who has been working as Communications Advisor to the African
Union Mission in Somalia and latterly the Office of the President in Somalia
between 2009 and 2013 and to the Government in Libya since November 2013.
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