Date: Thu, 31 Jul 2014 13:54:28 +0200
Kenya's tourism crisis: Al Shabaab hits where it hurts the most
* Simon Allison
* 31 Jul 2014 01:43 (South Africa)
There was some
<http://www.iol.co.za/travel/world/africa/kenya-must-be-joking-about-tourism
-figures-1.1727351> bad news this week for Kenya's tourism industry, a vital
driver of the country's $41 billion economy (the Economist estimates that
tourism provides up to 15% of GDP).
According to the state-run Kenya Tourism Board (KTB), international arrivals
for the first five months of the year are down 4%, from 398,000 in 2013 to
381,000 in 2014. In other words, 17,000 less people have opted to travel to
Kenya this year, largely as a result of travel warnings issued against Kenya
by the UK, US and other western nations.
But this news is not bad enough, apparently. In a scathing attack, one of
the country's major hotel chains accused the government of grossly
misrepresenting the figures. Headed "4% DROP IN TOURISM! WE MUST BE
JOKING!", the statement from Rosemary Mugambi, head of sales and marketing
for TPS Eastern Africa, which operates the Serena group of hotels, did not
pull any punches.
"When we come across such statements which are not in touch with reality on
the ground, we wonder if KTB and the Kenya tourism industry 'live in the
same Kenya'," said Mugambi. She argues that the 2013 figures were already a
30% drop on the 2012 figures, and that the situation was even worse in 2014.
According to the company's own statistics, tourism this year was already
30-50% down in Kenya's coastal regions, and 20% down in its safari parks.
"WHEN ONE DOES NOT ACCEPT THERE IS A PROBLEM - ONE NEVER SEEKS SOLUTIONS,"
concluded Mugambi, the frustrated caps all hers.
Whatever the real numbers - and anecdotal evidence from Mombasa's empty
hotel rooms and Lamu's deserted beaches suggest that Mugambi and TPS are
closer to the mark than the government, which has plenty of incentive to
gloss over the negative results - it's obvious that Kenya has a serious
problem. Tourism is in freefall, and its collapse will cost thousands of
jobs and make it almost impossible for the Kenyan economy to grow.
So why are tourists avoiding Kenya?
The immediate problem is those travel warnings. "There is a high threat from
terrorism, including kidnapping. The main threat comes from extremists
linked to Al Shabaab, a militant group that has carried out attacks in Kenya
in response to Kenya's military intervention in Somalia," says the advisory
from Britain's Foreign and Commonwealth Office, which advises against all
but essential travel to certain parts of Kenya, including the popular
coastal areas. The US, France and Australia have issued similar warnings. In
response, British charter companies have cancelled package holidays to
Kenya, and even evacuated holidaymakers already in Kenya when the FCO
advisory was issued in May.
Of course, governments don't take such drastic steps lightly, and Kenya must
confront the reality that it has become a more dangerous place in the past
few years - and not just for tourists. Media reports both inside and outside
the country have been dominated by alleged Al Shabaab attacks, from the
spectacular (such as the Westgate siege, which left 69 people dead) to the
seemingly mundane (the grenade attacks that target bus stops and other busy
urban areas with depressing regularity).
Al Shabaab wants Kenya to get out of Somalia, and with good reason. Although
the Kenyan invasion has not succeeded in defeating the Islamist militant
group militarily, it has pushed it out of several major towns (including the
lucrative port city of Kismayo)) and in general made life difficult for the
militants. The Kenyans are also helping to prop up the transitional
government based in Mogadishu, which Al Shabaab is seeking to overthrow.
Kenyans, meanwhile, might feel aggrieved that the military intervention -
which was explicitly aimed at preventing terrorist attacks on Kenyan soil -
has in fact achieved the opposite, only serving to increase the danger to
ordinary Kenyans. And it's not just Al Shabaab, either; long-standing tribal
tensions and land ownership disputes have also
<http://online.wsj.com/articles/african-land-disputes-breed-violence-poverty
-1406336021> fuelled recent violence.
None of this makes for an attractive tourist destination. Aware of this, the
Kenyan government has tried to take measures to soften the blow on hotels
and tour operators. One major initiative is to encourage domestic tourism,
through giving tax breaks to companies that pay for their employees'
holidays. This, however, has yet to gain traction as companies
<http://mobile.nation.co.ke/business/Employers-still-wary-of-tourism-tax-inc
entive/-/1950106/2348718/-/format/xhtml/-/p67x01z/-/index.html> wait and see
when and how it will be implemented.
Other government decisions seem to compound the problem, however. One good
example of this is the recent decision to slap
<http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-06-27-kenya-and-south-africas-m
utually-destructive-visa-race/> visa restrictions onto South African
citizens, making it very expensive and time-consuming for South Africans to
obtain a Kenyan visa. This will discourage thousands of potential
holidaymakers who might not be put off by Kenya's bad international
reputation. Instead, South Africans looking for an East African fix are more
likely to head to nearby Zanzibar.
Not that tax breaks and regulatory incentives are going to solve this
particular problem, however. As long as bombs, grenades and gunmen continue
to mar Kenya's idyllic beaches and historic cities, the tourists will stay
away. To get them back, Kenya is going to have to figure out a way to stop
the attacks. This time, preferably - and unlike the ill-fated invasion of
Somalia - the solution shouldn't encourage even more violence.
<http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-07-30-kenyas-tourism-crisis-al-
shabaab-hits-where-it-hurts-the-most/> simon-kenyatourism-subbedm.jpg
If the Kenyan government is to be believed, tourist arrivals are down a
little bit on last year. Hotel operators tell a different story, speaking of
a crisis rather than a decline. It's a potentially devastating blow for
Kenya's economy. For this, Kenyan has got Al Shabaab and an increasingly
misguided invasion of Somalia to thank. By SIMON ALLISON.
(image/jpeg attachment: image001.jpg)