The current US administration's flirtation with Iran adds an extra burden to
the predicament of the Saudis. It is a strategic policy of the US to exploit
the so called 'Iranian Threat' to foment fear, argues Dr Burhan M.
Al-Chalabi.
First Published: 2014-06-09
Saudi Arabia's foreign policy has always been concerned with one aim,
political survival. Since the creation in 1933, with the aid of the British
Colonial Office in the Arabian Peninsula, political analysts have frequently
predicted the imminent collapse of the Kingdom. All of them have been proved
wrong. In large part, the key to Saudi's survival has been its special
relationship with the US, as enshrined within the Redline Agreement after
the First World War, offering the US exclusive rights to Saudi oil
exploration.
And yet, in the 1980s and at the turn of the 21st century, Saudi Arabia made
decisions that unwittingly limited their political options. First, as Peter
Schweitzer revealed in his cold war history, Victory, during the Reagan
administration, the Saudis worked with the director of the CIA William J
Casey on a plan to bring down the Soviet Union, by increasing Saudi crude
oil production to trigger a collapse in global oil prices. This made it
impossible for the Soviets to maintain their union and stifled its ability
to sustain support for countries like Cuba, Afghanistan and Nicaragua. This
wasn't entirely in Saudi Arabia's interest: the collapse of the Soviet Union
deprived the Saudis of an alternative super power with whom it could work,
in certain circumstances, to safeguard its own interests.
Two decades later, the Saudis supported the US invasion and occupation of
Iraq, and provided military bases to the US army. Iraq was destroyed. This
deprived the Saudis of a powerful regional ally: during the Eighties, Iraq
used its military might to contain the regional ambitions of Ayatollah
Khomeini's Islamic revolution, and in doing so, safeguarded the stability of
the Kingdom and the whole Gulf region.
Today, Saudi Arabia stands alone, with no longer a reliable and a loyal
Egyptian regime, or Iraq to help guarantee its sovereignty. It is
effectively under the mercy of Iran's regional influences, as manifested in
the predominantly Pro-Iranian regimes of Nouri Al-Maliki, Bashar al-Assad,
Hizballah and the Houthy Shia Tribe, throughout Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and
Yemen.
The current US administration's flirtation with Iran adds an extra burden to
the predicament of the Saudis. It is a strategic policy of the US to exploit
the so called 'Iranian Threat' to foment fear and get the Gulf States to
spend vast sums on sophisticated arms that they do not need or cannot use.
In 2004, the US signed a twenty billion dollar worth of arms sales to Saudi
Arabia and the Gulf States, to beef up security against an alleged increased
risks posed by Iran.
The draconian domestic policies on human rights, freedom of speech and the
role of women in the society, of the Saudis provide an easy excuse with
which to demonise the Kingdom. This, coupled with its International cash
reserves and the wealth of massive oil resources, provide an attractive
platform to friends and foes alike to encourage or support local opposition
groups, to destabilise the Kingdom and overthrow the monarchy.
Supporting religious extremists to gain regional or international influence
can no longer work as a political option for the Saudis and may prove
counter productive in the context of the US relationship with the Kingdom.
However, the Saudis do have one option, to maintain stability of the Kingdom
and challenge Iran's role in the region.
This is to convince their US ally to pressurise the pro-Iranian Nouri
Al-Maliki to stop pursuing vicious sectarian policies and to stop arming the
Iraqi regime with weapons that are used by the Iranian Al-Qud's Brigade
Malitia to crush opposition to Al-Maliki and kill innocent civilians.
The Saudis can also offer positive and active support to the Iraqis
resisting Al-Maliki's oppressive rule. This includes the provision of
military status and training camps to members of the former Iraqi National
Army, disbanded by Viceroy Paul Bremmer (many of whom are refugees in
neighbouring Arabic countries, in fear of their lives).
In the face of potentially existential threats, a politically, economically
and militarily powerful Iraq would no doubt enhance Saudi Arabia's chances
of political survival against, all the odds.
Dr Burhan M. Al-Chalabi: Fellow of the Royal Society and Publisher of The
London Magazine