Date: Tue, 17 Jun 2014 17:01:14 +0200
Another month, another devastating attack in Kenya: can al-Shabaab be
stopped?
* Simon Allison
* 17 Jun 2014 08:05 (South Africa)
In Kenya, the scenes of devastation are beginning to repeat themselves.
There is the charred skeleton of another burnt-out car. There are the bullet
holes in the wall, the shattered glass on the floor, the collapsed sheets of
corrugated iron. There are the dead bodies - this time 48 of them, all men,
mostly civilians, left in the wake of a five-hour rampage from by gunmen who
shot up bars and homes and set several buildings alight.
Sunday night's raid in Mpeketoni, the coastal town nearest to Lamu Island's
swish tropical resorts, was a big one, the biggest since the Westgate Mall
siege in September 2013. But those two attacks are just the highest-profile
of an unrelenting onslaught of violence committed in the name of Islam by
radical, extremist militants - an onslaught which is only growing in
intensity. In the first four months of this year, more than 80 terrorist
attacks were documented by Kenyan human rights lawyers, ranging from
shootings to car bombs to grenade attacks. This is double the frequency
recorded in the corresponding period in the two preceding years.
It wasn't supposed to be this way. In 2011, when Somalia's al-Shabaab first
began to flex its muscles across the Somali border and into Kenyan
territory, Kenya vowed to halt the group once and for all. They sent
thousands of Kenyan Defence Force troops into Somalia to chase down the
militants in their own back yard.
For a while, the unauthorised (but extremely popular, in Kenya at least)
invasion looked like it was working. Al-Shabaab got a bad fright. They were
pushed out of their strongholds, cut off from their main income sources. The
Kenyan army was joined by Ethiopian units, and all were incorporated into
the existing African Union mission which propped up the feeble, corrupt
government in Mogadishu.
However, like all invading armies, Kenya's grand plans ran aground in muddy,
hostile territory where al-Shabaab have local knowledge, local support and
infinite patience. Even today, al-Shabaab controls vast swathes of Somalia,
probably more than the central government itself; and it has repeatedly
shown that nowhere in Somalia is safe (witness the
<http://www.voanews.com/content/killed-in-attack-on-somali-parliament/192162
8.html> recent attack on the Somali parliament; how can a nation that cannot
even protect its lawmakers protect its citizens?).
Not that Kenya's generals and political leaders seemed to mind the chaos in
Somalia. No, fixing Somalia was never the main objective, coming a distant
second to the goal of making Kenya a safer place, and protecting its vital
tourism industry. The evidence suggests - and there is more of it with every
passing month - that this too has been a failure. Kenya is more dangerous
than ever before, and tourists are being warned by their governments to stay
away.
Plan B is failing too. In April, Kenyan authorities tried a new tactic to
protect Kenyan citizens - but only some of them. Operation Usalama [peace]
Watch was a major police operation to detain and intimidate thousands of
Somalis living and working in Kenya, including recognised refugees and
Kenyan citizens of Somali descent. By the end of April, interior minister
Joseph Ole Lenku was boasting that over 4,000 people had been detained, in
what many observers described as horrendous conditions. It was a textbook
example of both ethnic profiling and collective punishment, and may also
have served the government's short-term political ends: it just so happens
that Kenya's Somali population tend to support President Uhuru Kenyatta's
main rival.
But perhaps we shouldn't be all that surprised that President Kenyatta is
unable adequately to deal with the threat. He is, after all, no stranger to
violence himself. Back in 2007, Kenya exploded into ethnically and
politically motivated violence in the wake of a disputed election - and
Kenyatta is accused of playing a major role in inciting it. A thousand
people died, and Kenya's enviable reputation as a beacon of peace and
stability in Africa was shattered. President Kenyatta, along with
Vice-President Ruto and two others, are being prosecuted by the
International Criminal Court on charges of committing crimes against
humanity.
Their shady past shouldn't, however, take attention or responsibility away
from the perpetrators of the wave of attacks. Fingers are always pointed at
al-Shabaab, with good reason, and respected journalists have claimed on
Twitter that the group has claimed responsibility for the latest incident in
Mpeketoni. The group has indeed been the instigator of much of the recent
violence, but it's important to remember that it does not work alone.
Al-Shabaab's ideology resonates with other extremist groups within Kenya,
some of whom act in its name. For example, the Westgate attack is often
described as a prime example of al-Shabaab's brutality. Closer examination
reveals, however, that al-Shabaab probably
<https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/al-hijra-al-shababs-affiliate-in-kenya> had
help from a Kenyan extremist group known as al-Hijra. This distinction is
crucial, particularly in light of the Kenyan government's crackdown on
Somalis. Kenya is facing an extremism problem, not a Somali problem, and the
two cannot be conflated.
There are no easy solutions to problems like al-Shabaab, or terrorism, or
violent Islamist extremism. If there were, we would no longer be trying (and
failing, mostly) to deal with the likes of al-Qaeda, the Taliban and Boko
Haram. But the least we can do is learn from what has not worked. For Kenya,
invading its next door neighbor has failed, as has its indiscriminate (bit
highly discriminatory) crackdown on its Somali population. It's time for
Plan C, if there is one. DM
Read more:
. Analysis: Kenyan blasts prove that collective punishment is still
not counter-terrorism on
<http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-06-16-another-month-another-dev
astating-attack-in-kenya-can-al-shabaab-be-stopped/#.U58A3vmSzwg> Daily
Maverick
. Al-Shabaab: How much of a threat to South Africa? on
<http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-06-16-another-month-another-dev
astating-attack-in-kenya-can-al-shabaab-be-stopped/#.U575bPmSzwg> Daily
Maverick
.
<http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2014-06-16-another-month-another-dev
astating-attack-in-kenya-can-al-shabaab-be-stopped/>
simon-kenya-new-explosion-subbedm.jpg
. Yet more violence in Kenya on Sunday night as 48 people were gunned
down in the streets of a coastal town. Al-Shabaab strike again, making a
mockery of the Kenyan government's attempts to stop them. SIMON ALLISON
wonders if Kenya is going about it the wrong way.
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