Strategypage.com: Sudan: Civil War Stalemate

From: Berhane Habtemariam <Berhane.Habtemariam_at_gmx.de_at_dehai.org>
Date: Thu, 19 Jun 2014 23:30:47 +0200

Sudan: Civil War Stalemate

   19/06/2014

June 17, 2014: Now South Sudan and rebel leaders are refusing to continue
the peace talks in Ethiopia because of provocative remarks (that both sides
were stupid for trying to achieve victory through force) from the East
African official in charge of organizing the peace talks and because the
rebels were not consulted on who would attend. The South Sudan rebellion is
six months old now and there seems to be no end in sight. Currently both
sides have agreed to work out details on a ceasefire within 60 days but two
earlier efforts to do this ended in failure. Proposals to form a new
government are also deadlocked by the current government's redusal to
consider rebel demands that the current president resign. The current
government also refuses to consider rebel demands that some rebele leads be
given senior positions in the government. The vague "transitional
government" plan was accepted in general but then rejected when both sides
got into the details.

The new deadlock is in sharp contrast to the deal worked out over the last
week. South Sudan's government and rebel leaders argeed to the formation of
a transitional government within 60 days and then prepare to hold new
national elections. This deal was made following a series of face to face
discussions held in Ethiopia between South Sudan president Salva Kiir and
rebel leader Riek Machar. The East African Inter-Governmental Authority on
Development (IGAD) sponsored the discussions. In response to the deal Uganda
said that if the transitional government does coalesce as stipulated in the
IGAD agreement, Ugandan Army units will withdraw from South Sudan.
Meanwhile, several international food and medical aid agencies warned that
South Sudan is confronting another humanitarian crisis. Some aid groups
believe that some 50,000 refugee children in South Sudan face starvation in
the coming weeks. The civil war has made ground shipment of relief supplies
to remote areas all but impossible and air transport is limited.

June 15, 2014: A recent study of arms shipments to Sundan has found that
Iran as Sudan's second-largest arms and munitions supplier after China.
Iranian technical specialists also work at Sudan's Yarmouk (near Khartoum)
weapons manufacturing facility. Iran, however, has also supplied light
weapons, rockets and other munitions. Some of the Iranian weapons have ended
up in the hands of rebel organizations in South Sudan and in other parts of
Africa.

June 14, 2014: A former South Sudanese general who defected to the rebels
announced that he is preparing a force for combat. General Dau Aturjong
called the current government a dictatorship. Aturjong was in command of the
Sudan Peoples Liberation Army's 6th Division (Northern Bahr el Ghazal
state).

June 12, 2014: South Sudan government and rebel leaders have tentatively
agreed to a ceasefire. The agreement includes beginning a 60-day period in
which the two opposing sides will form a transitional national government. A
South Sudan rebel source claimed that the withdrawal of Ugandan military
forces is a key part of the deal and that Uganda has agreed to withdraw its
military forces from South Sudan. There was no official response to this
claim from the Ugandan government or South Sudan government.

The South Sudan government conceded that in early June members of the Sudan
Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) in the town of Gadiang (Jonglei state)
refused to obey orders because its soldiers have not been paid. The
government said that the incident fueled reports (which the government
denies) of major desertions and defections to the rebel side. The soldiers
in Gadiang have now been paid.

June 11, 2014: Uganda has contradicted a central allegation made by his
South Sudan; that there was an attempted coup in mid-December. Ugandan
officials made the claim during the current peace talks in Ethiopia. Uganda
believes that a violent confrontation between Nuer and Dinka soldiers in the
presidential guard precipitated the South Sudan civil war. Rebel leaders
congratulated Uganda for admitting that there was no coup attempt. Uganda is
trying to get the senior leaders of the government and the rebels to get
personally involved in negotiations to end the South Sudan war. Some South
Sudanese rebels have called Uganda the "co-architect" of the civil war,
implying that Uganda helped start it. The Ugandan government rejects that
claim and contends its forces entered South Sudan to prevent the South
Sudanese state from totally collapsing.

The U.S. government condemned a brutal series of attacks conducted by
Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Blue Nile and South Kordofan states.
The Sudan government claims that the RSF is a reserve paramilitary police
force. However, its tactics and operations differ very little from those of
the notorious Janjaweed militias which savaged Darfur during the worst years
of the Darfur war. The U.S. also accused Sudan of conducting indiscriminate
air attacks in South Kordofan. Several international agencies have accused
the RSF of looting and conducting what amount to scorched earth attacks in
rebel areas. The RSF militiamen target civilian water and food supplies.

June 10, 2014: Sudan's ambassador to Uganda has defected and fled to Great
Britain where he intends to seek asylum. Sharfi is reportedly disillusioned
with the ruling National Congress Party (NCP.

June 9, 2014: The Sudanese Army claimed that it had defeated a
counter-attack in the Alatmor area by Sudan Peoples Liberation
movement-North (SPLM-N) rebels. Rebels claimed their attack succeeded in
recapturing part of the town. Alatmor is east of Kadugli, capital of Sudan's
South Kordofan state.

June 8, 2014: Sudan arrested Ibrahim al-Sheik, leader of a major Sudanese
opposition party, the Congress Party. Opposition parties have accused the
government of harassment and trying to undermine next year's elections. As
it is, the opposition parties confront internal strife. For example the
Reform Now Party (RNP) may break into two factions.

June 7, 2014: Sudanese security forces claim they have retaken the Alatmor
area east of Kadugli. This incolved a combined operation by the Sudanese
Army and the Rapid Support Forces (paramilitary militia units) to defeat a
SPLM-N force defending the area. Government forces seized nearby Dalko in
mid-May. Sudanese forces have indicated that they intend to attack the town
of Kauda (about 90 kilometers from Altamor) sometime this Summer. The SPLM-N
maintains a major headquarters in Kauda.

June 6, 2014: An anti-Islamist Libyan militia led by General Khalifa Haftar
accused the Sudanese government of supplying Libyan militant Islamist
organization with weapons. Haftar's forces claimed that Sudan delivered the
weapons by air to an airport located at Meetiga.

June 5, 2014: The South Sudanese government vehemently denied claims that it
had plans to assassinate senior rebel leaders. The rebels claimed on June 2
that they had seized an aircraft carrying a would-be assassin. The rebels
said the assassin, who is a Kenyan, admitted he had been assigned to murder
senior leaders of the rebel Sudan Peoples Liberation Army in Opposition. The
rebels claimed the assassin had two pistols with silencers.

June 4, 2014: A woman that a Sudanese Islamist court sentenced to death for
apostasy death has appealed her sentence. Mariam Ibrahim refused to renounce
her religion, which is Christianity.

June 3, 2014: A senior member of South Sudan's ruling Sudan Peoples
Liberation Movement (SPLM) party has resigned. Peter Adwok Nyaba, who serves
on the National Liberation Council, accused South Sudan's president, Salva
Kiir, of failing as a president. Nyaba said Kiir lacks vision.

 
Received on Thu Jun 19 2014 - 17:30:57 EDT

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