Kenya's Growing Militant Threat
The terrorist threat in Kenya is changing and the government appears unable
to deal with it.
By <
http://www.thinkafricapress.com/author/jesper-cullen> Jesper Cullen
Article | 23 June 2014 - 2:49pm |
Since the start of this year, Islamist militants have mounted a series of
shootings and bombings in Kenya. The targets have ranged from market stalls
and buses to restaurants and a beach resort. While many of these attacks
have been comparatively small and unsophisticated, there are signs that
terrorists are increasing their capabilities and escalating their tactics.
The <
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27862510> assault on the town
of Mpeketoni on 15 June was the deadliest attack in Kenya since the Westgate
siege last September. At least 48 people died after gunmen entered the town,
shooting people and setting fire to buildings and vehicles. A day later, the
militants carried out
<
http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Islamist-militants-kill-eight-more-in-
new-attack-on-Kenya-coast/-/2558/2351298/-/10xuqxjz/-/index.html> another
attack on a nearby village, killing at least 15 people.
As has tended to be the case with terrorist incidents in Kenya, the response
of the security forces and government has so far been inadequate. These two
assaults on towns close to Lamu exposed the difficulties authorities are
having in dealing with the worsening security situation. Indeed, despite the
police deploying to the area in the hours after the Mpeketoni assault ended,
the militants were able to mount a similar operation in the same area just
24 hours later.
Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for both these attacks in the Lamu area,
but the Kenyan president <
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27882084>
blamed them on 'local political networks' and claimed that al-Shabaab was
not involved. This reluctance from senior government members to address the
growing Islamist militant threat has been common.
The government has attempted to play down the peril and reassure its
citizens that it is taking measures to improve security. However, there is
little to suggest the government has had any success. In fact, the situation
has deteriorated this year with Islamist militant groups appearing to have
become better able to sustain a campaign of attacks in major urban areas.
A domestic threat
So far this year, there have been 14 attacks in Nairobi, Mombasa and the
nearby coastal tourist area, according to data from
<
https://www.terrorismtracker.com/> Terrorism Tracker. By contrast, there
were just eight such incidents in these areas in the whole of 2013. This
also marks a geographical shift in the threat, with attacks now being more
common in Nairobi, Mombasa and the coast than in the northeastern region
bordering Somalia. Although al-Shabaab continues to mount infrequent mass
casualty operations inside Kenya, it seems to be Kenyan militant groups
operating from Nairobi and Mombasa that now pose the greatest threat.
Most of the attacks by domestic militant groups this year have involved
small explosive devices or grenades, and they have chosen soft targets where
there is little or no security presence. In many cases, attackers have
simply thrown bombs from the street into a crowd or hidden devices before
escaping on foot or by motorcycle.
When attackers have encountered police or security personnel, they seem to
have been reluctant to confront the guards or force their way into target
sites. In early May, for example, a man was stopped by a security guard when
attempting to plant a bomb at Reef Hotel north of Mombasa. Instead of trying
to overpower him, the attacker walked away and left the bomb somewhere other
than his intended target. His priority seems to have been to avoid being
arrested, rather than hitting his main mark and inflicting a large number of
casualties.
While this suggests the threat from domestic groups is currently
unsophisticated, some elements appear to be escalating their tactics. A
<
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-27134695> car bombing outside a
police station in Nairobi in April and a
<
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/03/kenya-police-say-foiled-bomb-p
lot-with-ambush-2014317213057817683.html> foiled bombing in Mombasa in March
indicate a greater bomb-making capability than has been the case in Kenya in
recent years. It also shows that some militants are willing to carry out
suicide missions.
This attempted attack further reveals that some militants do have more
sophisticated techniques at their disposal. At the time of the foiled plot,
there was widespread criticism of the Kenyan security forces after they
reportedly
<
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/kenya/107090
65/Kenyan-police-park-massive-car-bomb-outside-their-offices-after-missing-e
xplosives-in-vehicle.html> left the vehicle outside their office in Mombasa
for several days, unaware that there were pipe bombs weighing around 60 kg
inside. However, this criticism may have been misplaced. Since then, further
information about the device has emerged, which indicates that it was well
constructed and difficult to detect even with a search of the vehicle.
That militants were able to source such a large amount of explosives and
build such a device is a concerning development and one that the authorities
appear ill-equipped to counter. Many sites in Nairobi and Mombasa that would
be attractive targets remain vulnerable to attack. Police and private
security have increased checks at entrances to sites such as shopping malls
and hotels since the assault on the Westgate shopping mall. But these
increased measures are unlikely to deter determined attackers using devices
such as the one police found in Mombasa in March.
When Western governments such as the UK, US and Australia issued
<
http://www.africareview.com/News/UK-warns-of-more-attacks-in-updated-Kenya-
advisory/-/979180/2335966/-/v0hi9xz/-/index.html> travel warnings for Kenya
last month, the Kenyan government rejected the idea that the terrorist
threat has increased. However, the evidence indicates that threat is
becoming more varied and more severe. Without a significant change in the
government's approach to combating attacks, there is little prospect for an
improvement in the security situation any time soon.
Received on Mon Jun 23 2014 - 13:28:42 EDT