Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2014 13:12:30 +0200
Yemen's Counter-Terrorism Quandary
By <http://www.criticalthreats.org/users/aknutsen> Alexis Knutsen
June 28, 2014
Introduction
President Obama has called Yemen a “committed partner” in the fight against
al Qaeda and has spoken of his intention to apply the “Yemen model” to Iraq
and Syria.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn1> [1] Such declarations ignore the forces threatening
the survival of the Yemeni state, particularly the insurgency known as the
al Houthi movement that is currently advancing on Yemen’s capital, Sana’a.
Yemen is America’s partner in the fight against al Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) – a group that has tried to attack the U.S. repeatedly
since its formation in 2009. Political unrest in 2011 in Yemen drove
then-president Ali Abdullah Saleh to draw resources away from the south.
AQAP seized the chance to strengthen itself and expand its safe havens
dramatically.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn2> [2] Yemeni efforts since then, with very limited
support from the U.S., have reduced AQAP’s control, but the escalating
conflict with the al Houthis threatens to divert key resources away from the
counter-terrorism fight once again.
The al Houthis have been battling the Yemeni government since 2004. They
declared a truce with the government in 2010, but never really gave up their
cause. Yemen’s much-heralded political transition process after the Arab
Spring revolt that drove Saleh from power failed to mollify the al Houthis,
who have renewed their fight against Saleh’s successor, Abdu Rabbu Mansour
Hadi, in response. The al Houthi return to arms directly challenges the
Yemeni state as they fight to expand their territory southward. It may even
undermine the extremely fragile and incomplete political agreements that
ended the Arab Spring uprising. In the worst case, it could initiate the
collapse of a unitary Yemeni state. An escalation of the al Houthi conflict
also raises the question of Iran’s role in supporting the al Houthis, which
has notably increased over the past few years.
The Arab Spring: A Chance for al Houthi Expansion
The al Houthi movement started as a political movement during the 1990s
under the leadership of Hussein Badr al Din al Houthi with the goal of
reviving Zaydism, a Shiite sect that believes only descendants of the
Prophet Mohammed can be Muslim rulers. The Yemeni government attempted to
arrest Hussein in September 2004, but killed him during the process. His
death sparked an armed uprising, which became known as the al Houthi
movement. The movement fought six separate wars, known as the Sa’ada Wars,
against the Yemeni government between 2004 and 2010.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn3> [3] The government and the al Houthis negotiated a
fragile ceasefire in February 2010. The ceasefire ended hostilities, but the
government never addressed the movement’s core grievances.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn4> [4]
The Arab Spring uprisings collapsed the Yemeni state and especially its
security forces into Sana’a in 2011, creating an opening for the al Houthis
to carve out their own territory in north Yemen, starting in Sa’ada. The al
Houthis appointed a new governor and assumed local administrative roles
there, effectively establishing their own statelet.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn5> [5] Iranian support for the al Houthis increased
following the 2011 uprisings when Yemen was in one of its most fragile
states. Anonymous American military and intelligence officials stated in
March 2012 that Iranian smugglers backed by the Quds Force had shipped
weapons to rebel groups in Yemen, including the al Houthis.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn6> [6] The al Houthis spokesperson, Mohammed Nasser al
Bukhaiti, confirmed that the president of the al Houthis’ political party,
Ansar Allah, met with the Iranian ambassador in Sana’a on May 10, 2013.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn7> [7] The al Houthis continue to deny any allegations
that Iran supports them.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn8> [8]
The Yemeni Arab Spring resulted in a Gulf Cooperation Council political
transition plan that led to Saleh’s resignation. The plan created a national
dialogue process known as the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) in order to
resolve multiple national issues.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn9> [9] The al Houthi movement agreed to participate in
the NDC as a way to further its political agenda and sent representatives
from Ansar Allah as delegates to the NDC in 2013.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn10> [10] The al Houthis began voicing objections to the
NDC in mid-January 2014 after the council pushed through a mandate allowing
President Hadi to form a committee to decide the number of regions in Yemen.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn11> [11] Tensions escalated further when the al Houthis’
NDC representative, Ahmad Sharaf al Din, was assassinated in the capital
before the final plenary session and closing ceremony of the NDC on June 21.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn12> [12] President Hadi went ahead with the plenary
session despite Sharaf al Din’s death and rushed through an agreement on the
Southern Issue (the relationship of the territories of the former South
Yemen with the rest of the Yemeni state).
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn13> [13]
The al Houthis in turn withdrew from the NDC and boycotted the final
session. They objected to a change from consensus to majority vote on the
document that finalizing the mandate to decide the number of federal
regions. They claimed that the NDC’s final outcomes were decided hurriedly
and without their input.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn14> [14] President Hadi officially announced the plan to
divide Yemen into a six-region federation a few weeks after the close of the
NDC on February 10, 2014.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn15> [15] The al Houthis were quick to reject the
President’s plan, arguing that it would divide Yemen into rich and poor
regions and leave Sa’ada landlocked and with no significant resources. The
plan also split al Houthi territory into two, separate regions, to which the
al Houthis strongly objected.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn16> [16]
2014 Winter Offensive
The al Houthis not only see themselves as politically marginalized, but they
also see their Zaydi Shiite identity threatened by growing Saudi-backed
Salafi influence in their tribal stronghold, Sa’ada. Some tribes in Sa’ada
since the 1990s have adopted the Salafi branch of Sunni Islam, leading to
the decline of Zaydism in northern Yemen.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn17> [17] Al Houthis besieged one of the largest Salafi
religious centers in Yemen, Dar al Hadith, in Dammaj, on October 30, 2013,
accusing Salafis in Dammaj of recruiting foreign fighters.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn18> [18] Fighting continued intermittently in Sa’ada
until both sides reached a ceasefire in January 2014, stipulating that
non-local Salafis leave Dammaj.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn19> [19]
The al Houthis took their fight south during the beginning of January 2014
to strongholds of the Hashid tribal confederation, whose members the al
Houthis accuse of supporting Salafis in Sa’ada. The al Houthis attacked
villages in the Khaywan Valley, north of Amran city, beginning on January 6.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn20> [20] Clashes continued until the al Houthis finally
overran strongholds of the leading family of the Hashid tribal
confederation, the al Ahmars, in Huth and al Khamri on February 2 under the
pretext that an al Ahmar sheikh forbade Hashid tribal members from joining
the al Houthis.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn21> [21] The al Houthis simultaneously clashed with
tribes in Arhab beginning on January 25, 2014, and took control of nearby
Raydah on February 5.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn22> [22] The al Houthis agreed to a ceasefire on
February 9, at which point clashes became less frequent for the remainder of
February.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn23> [23]
Fighting flared up again when al Houthi militants began fighting with the
Yemeni military and tribes in al Jawf in northern Yemen between February 28
and March 10. Clashes with the military spread south to Hamdan March 9.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn24> [24] The militants then held a protest in Amran on
March 14, demanding the resignation of the governor of Amran, Mohammed
Hassan Dammaj, and the commander of the 310th Armored Brigade, Hamid al
Qushaybi.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn25> [25] Al Houthi fighters attempted to enter the city
of Amran again on March 22 in order to stage a second round of
anti-government protests. Government forces fired on the group, resulting in
the deaths of six rebels.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn26> [26] A presidential commission brokered a two-week
peace with the al Houthis following their failed entry into Amran city, and
fighting subsided for the month of April.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn27> [27]
A Renewed Push South
Local reports indicated as early as mid-April 2014 that al Houthis were
planning an offensive in Amran and Arhab.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn28> [28] Renewed clashes broke out on May 14 between al
Houthi militants and the 310th Armored Brigade when militants attempted to
control a cement factory located in al Hajaz, close to the 310th Armored
Brigade’s base in Jebel Dhin. A presidential committee brokered a
short-lived ceasefire on May 23. Clashes escalated on May 25 between al
Houthi militants and the 310th Armored Brigade in al Jannat and the al
Mekshash Mountains, when al Houthis attacked the military’s positions and
buildings owned by the al Ahmar family.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn29> [29]
Map of al Houthi offensive. Click to enlarge.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/sites/default/files/YemensCounterterrorismQu
andary_Map_1200.jpg>
http://www.criticalthreats.org/sites/default/files/YemensCounterterrorismQua
ndary_Map_250.jpg
The al Houthis attacked Amran central prison on June 3 and freed around ten
al Houthi inmates along with 400 others, according to Yemeni sources. Tribal
militias affiliated with the al Islah party and the 310th Armored Brigade
attempted to expel the al Houthis from the area around the prison.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn30> [30] The Yemeni military conducted airstrikes the
same day on al Houthi positions in Amran.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn31> [31] The airstrikes marked a change in the Yemeni
military’s response to the conflict since, up until that point, the military
had only been involved in ground engagements with the al Houthis.
A committee formed by President Hadi and chaired by the Minister of Defense,
Maj. Gen. Mohammad Nasser Ahmad, negotiated a ceasefire on June 5 following
the airstrikes.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn32> [32] Even Abdul Malik al Houthi, the leader of the
al Houthis, expressed willingness to implement the ceasefire and release
captured soldiers. In exchange, Abdul Malik called for the government to
replace the 310th Armored Brigade, the same brigade that was heavily
involved in fighting the al Houthis during the Sa’ada Wars.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn33> [33] The Yemeni government replaced the governor of
Amran, Mohammed Dammaj, with whom the al Houthis had also expressed
dissatisfaction. However, the government did not meet the main al Houthi
demand that Hamid al Qushaybi, whom the al Houthis have accused of supplying
Salafis in Dammaj with weapons, be replaced and that the 310th Armored
Brigade be removed from Amran.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn34> [34]
The al Houthis broke the June 5 ceasefire on June 14 and attacked the 310th
Armored Brigade’s military base in Jebel Dhin, located along the road from
Sana’a to Amran.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn35> [35] The al Houthis then carried out an offensive in
Jebel al Dhafir, approximately 30 km northwest from Sana’a. Militants seized
a road and blew up three houses in the village of al Dhafir on June 17. The
militants proceeded to clash with the tribes around al Dhafir and from Bani
Matar during the week, but at the time of writing appear to be holding the
village of al Dhafir.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn36> [36]
Continued efforts, even at the presidential level, to de-escalate the
conflict have failed. The al Houthis continued the week of June 17 to clash
with the 310th Armored Brigade and tribes supporting the al Islah party in
Hamdan, Sana’a, and Jebel al Dhafir despite a public warning from President
Hadi not to escalate the conflict.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn37> [37] The Yemeni military responded by sending
Special Forces to assist the 310th Armored Brigade and continued airstrikes
on al Houthi positions in Iyal Sarih on June 17 and 20.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn38> [38] The al Houthis responded to the airstrikes with
a post on its website, Ansaru Allah, on June 19 comparing the Yemeni
military’s current actions with the six Sa’ada Wars.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn39> [39]
The al Houthis moved their fight farther south to the capital of Sana’a
during June 20 and 21. An explosion occurred at the house of a Salafi sheikh
the night of June 20 in al Jiraf, a neighborhood in northern Sana’a along
the road to al Daylami Air Force Base.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn40> [40] Al Houthi militants later stated that security
forces attacked their political office in Sana’a city, justifying the
erection of checkpoints along the entry road into al Jiraf. Al Houthi
militants attacked a group of security forces following the explosion.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn41> [41] Government sources confirmed that al Houthis
had seized control of Sana'a's Bani Matar district capital, Matnah city, on
June 21, which is along the road from Sana’a to al Hudaydah.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn42> [42] Both Ansaru Allah and the Yemeni military’s
outlet published terms of a ceasefire on June 22, but neither side signed
the agreement. Clashes between the 310th Armored Brigade and al Houthi
militants continued in Hamdan and Bani Matar the evening of June 22 and into
June 23.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn43> [43]
At the time of writing, it appears that the al Houthis continue to hold
their positions in Hamdan and al Dhafir. A local source reported that the
310th Armored Brigade withdrew from its position in al Dhafir on June 19.
Tribes located in al Dhafir have attempted to negotiate a ceasefire between
the 310th Armored Brigade and al Houthi militants, but all mediations have
failed.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn44> [44]
Yemen’s Rocky Political Landscape
It is not clear what will appease the al Houthis or whether their terms
would be acceptable to the current government. Abdul Malik al Houthi’s
public willingness to negotiate on June 3 signals that there is a glimmer of
hope in resolving the conflict. It is clear that the presence of the 310th
Armored Brigade and its commander, al Qushaybi, are unacceptable to the al
Houthis. It is also clear that the al Houthis will stand by their rejection
of the proposed six-region federation. The al Houthis continue to seek
inclusion in the political process and want recognition of their cause.
The conflict between the al Houthis and the 310th Armored Brigade is not
easy to solve, however. The 310th Armored Brigade was part of General Ali
Mohsen al Ahmar’s 1st Armored Division before Hadi issued restructured the
military in 2012 and still remains loyal to Ali Mohsen.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn45> [45] Ali Mohsen, who commanded the Yemeni military
units fighting the al Houthis between 2004 and 2010, is now a presidential
adviser for military affairs.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn46> [46] He and the al Ahmar family (no relation) are
aligned against the al Houthis. There are rumors that Ali Mohsen is at odds
with the Defense Minister, Mohammed Nasser Ahmed.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn47> [47] The political dynamics in the capital place
Hadi between a rock and a hard place. Hadi would probably need support from
Ali Mohsen to redeploy the 310th Armored Brigade out from Amran, which he is
unlikely to receive. On the other hand, the al Houthis accuse Hadi of having
the same mentality as the old regime.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn48> [48] Hadi’s predecessor, Saleh, almost had a chance
at ending the conflict in 2010, but would accept nothing less than an
unconditional surrender from the al Houthis.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn49> [49] Hadi will need to find a way forward that would
be acceptable to the al Houthis, Ali Mohsen, and the al Ahmars.
The escalation in the al Houthi conflict also comes at a time when fears are
growing that Iran and Saudi Arabia could enter a proxy war with each other
in the Middle East.
<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
ry-june-26-2014#_edn50> [50] Saudi Arabia fought the al Houthis along its
southern border during the Sa’ada Wars. The Iranians have provided some
material support for the al Houthis following the fall of Saleh. Yemen could
become another battleground in addition to Iraq and Syria, where Iran and
Saudi Arabia fight for influence.
A Threat to U.S. Counter-Terrorism Strategy
The United States’ current counter-terrorism strategy in Yemen rests on
continued commitment from the Yemeni government and President Hadi. The al
Houthi conflict puts Hadi in a quandary. If Hadi cannot get both sides to
compromise soon, clashes will continue to escalate. Continued escalation in
the al Houthi conflict increases the threat to Hadi and his government and
will most likely draw limited resources away from fighting AQAP. Such a
shift in military resources to the al Houthi conflict could give AQAP
uncontested safe havens in southern Yemen, where it could plan and
coordinate attacks against the U.S. This scenario exposes the weakness in a
counter-terrorism strategy that relies on foreign partners to combat
terrorist groups. An al Houthi offensive against the Yemeni government
spells disaster for combatting AQAP.
_____
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<http://www.criticalthreats.org/yemen/knutsen-houthi-counterterrorism-quanda
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http://www.criticalthreats.org/sites/default/files/imagecache/530width/main_
images/analysis/Houthi_20140624_main.jpg
A tribesman loyal to the Shi'ite Houthi group gestures as he attends a
tribal gathering to show support to the group in Amran province north of the
Yemeni capital Sanaa March 13, 2014. (Reuters)
(image/jpeg attachment: image001.jpg)
(image/jpeg attachment: image002.jpg)