Somalia: Heading from Fragility to Fragmentation?
– By Dr Dominik Balthasar
Posted on
<
http://africanarguments.org/2014/06/26/somalia-heading-from-fragility-to-fr
agmentation-by-dr-dominik-balthasar/> June 28, 2014
Somalia has achieved important progress since the onset of the year of 2014.
Most prominent among the positive developments is the push-back of
al-Shabaab, realised by a joint military offensive of the Somali Armed
Forces (SAF) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). While security
remains precarious, the territorial gains have provided the Federal
Government of Somalia (FGS) with an opportunity to extend its
administrative reach – a crucial precondition for its long-term
state-building project and endeavour to hold country-wide elections by
2016.
However, it remains questionable whether the government of Prime Minister
Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed will succeed in reaping sufficient benefits in order
to be able to propel the country’s state-building process. Although advances
against the terrorist organisation are crucial, the fight against al-Shabaab
constitutes only part of the equation. Another basic element lies in the
process of erecting functional structures of governance in the context of
Somalia’s federal agenda. Yet, recent quarrels at the sub-national level
raise the fear that Somalia may be heading from fragility to fragmentation.
The EU-ISS policy brief
<
http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/somalias-federal-agend
a-from-fragility-to-fragmentation/> ‘Somalia’s federal agenda: From
fragility to fragmentation?’ takes a closer look at this proposition. The
paper critically assesses the recent trajectory the country has embarked
upon, putting a particular focus on Somalia’s federalism process and its
implications for the state’s endeavour to establish lasting peace and
stability. The paper shows that the political ‘transition’ that Somalia
officially terminated with the formation of the FGS in September 2012 is in
full swing, and that this process carries centrifugal tendencies that risk
renewed conflict.
A key challenge Somalia faces lies in the ad-hoc nature of the process that
underpins the formation of federal member states. While the evolution of
regional tensions had to be expected, the resulting tug-of-war among Somali
actors has hampered political progress. It also led to increased
factionalism, propelling local tensions and clan-related cleavages.
Somalia’s history provides ample evidence of the dangers this trajectory
entails. Apart from compromising the state-building progress achieved to
date, increased fragmentation could also lead to a reinvigoration of
al-Shabaab, which has always been effective in exploiting local grievances
and national disunity.
In order to prevent Somalia from sliding from fragility to fragmentation,
the policy brief proposes that Somalia’s international partners may
contemplate strengthening the central administration vis-ą-vis the federal
member states and supporting a just process by which federal polities are
established. In part, this could be done by helping the FGS to
institutionalise the process that underpins the formation of federal member
states, and bolstering the Boundaries and Federation Commission that the
Provisional Constitution tasked the FGS to create. This could be achieved by
making it clear that international development funding to regional
administrations will hinge on their prior approval by the FGS.
Moreover, the international community needs to ensure that its support
towards Somalia’s national process of federalisation does not fuel internal
conflict. One possibility lies in adopting a flexible process that provides
the FGS with sufficient room for political manoeuvre, and hands ownership
over the state-making process to the Somali people. Consequently, all donors
should strongly adhere to the Somali Compact, as it continues to be the most
suitable framework to assist the FGS in rebuilding basic and durable state
functions. Even though the Somali Compact is not the silver bullet that will
turn the long-time ‘failed state’ of Somalia into a stellar democracy, its
principle tenets constitute an important step in reconstructing Somalia –
not least by coordinating its international supporters.
More challenging, but of even greater importance, is the unification of the
Somali people. For its part, the EU, in addition to its already significant
contribution to the country’s security sector, might also consider the
possibility of providing support for the establishment and the promotion of
national political parties. Genuine political parties with convincing party
programmes and an active followership that extends beyond a handful of
Mogadishu-based politicians could prove to be valuable vehicles in attempts
to transcend the sub-national purview of political entities, overcome
age-old clan-based disputes, and provide viable platforms for national
dialogue. Ultimately, a democratic trajectory for Somalia will be hard to
achieve in the absence of both a unified national constituency and genuine
political parties.
Not entirely unexpectedly, the advancement of Somalia’s federal agenda has
proved to be a contentious process. The resulting fragmentation it has
experienced, particularly in recent months, risks perpetuating and even
exacerbating its fragility. In order to move forward constructively and
overcome political instability, the country needs to start building
institutions and identities that span regional and clan divides. Only then
will Somalia stand a chance of achieving the ‘Vision 2016’ that the FGS
devised last September.
Dr. Dominik Balthasar holds a Transatlantic Postdoctoral Fellowship for
International Relations and Security (TAPIR, 2012-14), in the framework of
which he has worked for and with Chatham House, the United States Institute
of Peace, and the European Union Institute for Security Studies. Dominik’s
work focuses on issues pertaining to conflict and state fragility, and
international efforts towards state reconstruction and development,
particularly in Somalia. He can be reached under dominik (at)
balthasar-online.de.
Received on Sat Jun 28 2014 - 14:34:54 EDT