Date: Tue, 1 Jul 2014 18:10:26 +0200
Defeating al-Shabab and dismembering Somalia
Will the current strategy of the Somali government and the international
community bring peace to Somalia?
Last updated: 01 Jul 2014 10:00
Abdi Ismail Samatar
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/profile/abdi-ismail-samatar.html>
Abdi Ismail Samatar
Abdi Ismail Samatar is a professor of Geography, Environment and Society at
the University of Minnesota, a research Fellow at the University of
Pretoria, and a member of the African Academy of Sciences.
RSS <http://www.aljazeera.com/Services/Rss/?PostingId=2011726141246551460>
Two years ago, the African Union Military Force (AMISOM) liberated the
Somali capital, Mogadishu, from al-Shabab. More recently AMISOM and the
Somali Army declared victories over al-Shabab by capturing major towns. The
international community which supports AMISOM has touted these advances, yet
the Somali population is more circumspect about these victories given the
resurgence of terrorist bombings in the
<http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/02/somali-presidential-hq-attacke
d-al-shabab-201422112586270319.html> capital.
At this point, it is important to examine whether the military and political
strategy of the international community and the African Union to stabilise
Somalia will advance the cause of peace and enable Somalis to regain control
over their country or whether this approach will permanently dismember
Somalia.
Al-Shabab's agenda
The origin of al-Shabab dates back to the failure of secular politics to
deliver peace and common belonging for the Somali people, particularly since
<http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/161268?uid=3738904&uid=2&uid=4&sid=21
104399458153> 1991. Somalia's brutal dictatorship decimated civic politics
in the country in the late 1980s and fanned the flames of civil war by
politicising clan divisions among the population. The regime used its
security forces to collectively punish communities it deemed hostile and
therefore sowed the seeds of national fragmentation. Such political dynamics
shattered trust among Somalis and created opportunities for warlords, and
others whose objective has been to subjugate Somalis to collect the spoils
of the civil war.
After more than a decade of war, Somalis' only remaining source of moral and
political alternative to chaos was the population's staunch adherence to
Islam. Members of the Muslim community who were previously banned by the old
regime regrouped and tried to restore peace. They had some success, but
their rigid interpretation of the faith and crude political sloganeering,
particularly after the bombing of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania,
attracted Washington's attention.
Watch the video link below:
Inside Story - Is Somalia ready for real democracy?
http://bcove.me/9zccv4p5
The Somali Islamic political project culminated in the rise of Islamic
Courts Union (ICU) which liberated Mogadishu and several regions of the
country from the tyranny of the warlords in
<http://www.roape.org/109/14.html> 2006. The youth wing of the courts, then
known as al-Shabab, was the most disciplined and effective force the ICU
had.
ICU's military success and its popularity among most Somalis immediately
attracted the attention of the West, particularly the US, and their
Ethiopian allies. Plans were laid out, using Ethiopia as a proxy, to crush
the ICU. Unfortunately the ICU blindly fell into the strategic traps set for
them. Consequently, Ethiopia invaded Somalia and drove the ICU into the
bush.
As the Ethiopian
<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/world/africa/03somalia.html?_r=0>
military occupied Mogadishu, it became feasible for the internationally
sponsored warlords-dominated Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG)
leadership to move to the capital under Ethiopian protection. A fierce war
of resistance against the Ethiopian occupation ensued, which pinned down the
occupiers. Through the war of resistance, al-Shabab became the dominant
Somali force.
Ethiopian forces were finally holed in three small locations while Somali
resistance controlled much of the country. Then the international community
wooed the leaders of the ICU to jump ship and become the leaders of the TFG.
>From here on, al-Shabab declared its association with al-Qaeda and the US
listed it as a terrorist organisation in 2008. Thereafter, Ethiopian forces
withdrew and AMISOM forces were increased substantially. It took AMISOM
three years to gain control of the capital.
Disabling Somalia
Once Mogadishu was formally liberated, the international community turned
its attention to re-establishing a more permanent
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/07/201273094746839247.html>
government. Here the international community went into cahoots with
sectarian Somali politicians and organised a corrupt and divisive selection
process - akin to apartheid - to appoint a new government.
The political system of choice for the dominant sectarian Somalis was a
tribal-based federal system in this most culturally homogenous country in
Africa. Despite the superficial appearance of a smooth transition to a more
permanent government in 2012, the core political project was deeply
fractured. It called for the creation of federal regions based on
unrealistic and non-existent boundaries which instigated new and nastier
political fissures within communities.
Watch the video link below:
Inside Story - Where are Somalia's missing millions?
http://bcove.me/fxcjg4c9
The consequences of tribal identity becoming the grammar of politics in the
country are already conspicuous. First, the requirement that every little
tribe must be represented in parliament, cabinet, and various organs of the
state has created an incoherent political authority.
Second, this rudderless political morass is matched by the dysfunctional
bureaucracy that lacks the basic qualities of professional civil service.
The arbitrary tribalism-based criteria used to select public service
employees have produced a frighteningly incompetent order that has
overwhelmed the few professionals in the system.
Third, political ineptitude and professional incompetence at the heart of
the country in Mogadishu has become a model for the provinces. Consequently,
a gratuitous and dysfunctional political order has engulfed the country,
thus deepening mistrust among Somalis.
Fourth, the proliferation of arbitrarily defined regions with little
guidance from the central government has induced competition between
sectarian politicians who use tribal identity as a cover to establish their
fiefdoms. This process has already generated tremendous conflict between and
within communities and intensifies fragmentation because the country lacks a
political centre of gravity.
Finally, neighbouring states, such as Kenya and Ethiopia, are deeply
involved in the fracturing of the country. Kenya has unabashedly given
resources to the leader who controls the so-called Jubaland using Kenyan
defensive forces, nominally part of
<http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/11/2011111584756956993.html>
AMISOM. Similarly, Ethiopia recently joined AMISOM, and is using the pretext
of al-Shabab to curve up areas in central Somalia to set up its own client
provinces. The aim of the Kenyan and Ethiopian forces is to use these newly
minted client regions as spheres of influences to enfeeble the central
government. If successful, such clients in the provinces will determine the
fate of the country. Meanwhile the African Union and the international
community continue to provide resources and cover for the Ethiopian and
Kenyan projects.
A bottomless pit
Two years ago, the senior Ugandan commander of AMISOM, in a confidential
report, stressed that the tribal-based administration in Somalia will never
become an effective government that can consolidate the peace and serve the
Somali people. Despite such warnings, the African Union and its
international partners are oblivious to the fact that their military
presence in the country has not helped Somalis to take charge of their
country. Instead, Kenya and Ethiopia, under the cover of AMISOM, have gained
a free hand to support sectarian Somali clients to gerrymander the country's
future.
Consequently, aside from AMISOM's claims that al-Shabab is on the run, the
country's political and social fabric is rotting, which does not bode well
for the future of the Somali Republic. The government in Mogadishu, the only
organised force which has the potential to inspire the population, is
absorbed in sterile and regime-cantered politics. Al-Shabab might no longer
have the capacity to control large areas, but its defeat will likely produce
a failed country with a failed state vulnerable to foreign domination.
Abdi Ismail Samatar is a professor of Geography, Environment and Society at
the University of Minnesota, a research Fellow at the University of
Pretoria, and a member of the African Academy of Sciences.
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