Date: Tue, 4 Mar 2014 18:24:37 +0100
Is Yoweri Museveni still the West's Man in Africa?
- By Angelo Izama
Posted on
<http://africanarguments.org/2014/03/04/is-yoweri-museveni-still-the-wests-m
an-in-africa-by-angelo-izama/> March 4, 2014
<http://africanarguments.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/M72-e1393945299706.j
pg> M7Heavily armed members of Uganda's elite anti-terrorism police stand
guard along the neatly manicured perimeter of the US Embassy in Kampala.
Occasionally they shout commands and point their guns. For security reasons
you are not allowed to stop or park a car within a certain radius of the US
Embassy on plot 1577 Ggaba Road, Kampala. Offenders tend to be first time
visa applicants.
Security in Uganda, and especially in the capital city, Kampala, is
ubiquitous. Armed men and women can be found every 100 meters on the airport
road when the country is hosting visiting dignitaries. Ggaba road, where the
embassy sits, is a busy road with privileged traffic. Ear-splitting sirens
hustle ordinary commuters out of the way as armed convoys shuttle big men to
and from the nearby Speke Resort Hotel, a posh conference centre sitting on
the edge of Lake Victoria.
The conference centre regularly hosts meetings of African heads of state and
other 'dignitaries', such as the African Union summit in 2010, the
Commonwealth meeting in 2007, and in 2013, the peace negotiations of the
DRC's warring factions. Uganda too has found herself at the center of
political and military negotiations, with her president of 27 years, Yoweri
Museveni, frequently playing the key role of intermediary.
It is a role that has made him indispensible to those seeking a reliable
anchor in a region that is no stranger to violent conflict. In the last few
years Kenya buckled under ethnic violence and was followed this year by
South Sudan - traditional trouble spots like Congo have now been overtaken
by the total breakdown of the Central African Republic.
Recently, Mr. Museveni made himself the centre of a global debate on the
rights of gay people by signing into law new legislation imposing harsh
sentences for homosexuality. However, at the nerve centre of this public
theatre is not the gay debate, but Mr. Museveni's increasingly public show
of independence from traditional western partners who have, until now,
enjoyed a symbiotic relationship with him. This has been driven mainly by
peace and security concerns in the Great Lakes region.
That the West is losing influence here is not simply a fact, but within
Uganda's political transition it is also a necessity. Museveni epitomizes a
generic formulation within Western foreign policy making in Africa
<http://africanarguments.org/2014/03/04/is-yoweri-museveni-still-the-wests-m
an-in-africa-by-angelo-izama/>
datinghttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png back to
the cold war, where strong (pro-western) leaders are supported as anchorage
for a wide range of interests centred on security and stability.
When he runs for re-election in 2016, Museveni will have been a sitting
president for three decades, a period accounting for more than half the
political life of most independent African states, and one of the longest
reigns in recent history. The Ugandan establishment is essentially a
military one. Mr. Museveni's armed convoys, disruptive as they are
overwhelming- a show of power, lead the way for Uganda's political
gliterrati. The armed escorts are also a status symbol - the new bling for
the privileged classes whose upper echelons are senior military loyalists.
There are hardly any exit routes from a system with Mr. Museveni at its
head. In February, ruling party MPs led by a younger fringe known within
their ranks as "the new face of the resistance" forced the rest to
acknowledge Mr. Museveni as the sole candidate of the NRM. His Prime
Minister Amama Mbabazi, the only credible alternative, is being picketed
within the party, setting the stage for what appears to be a showdown
between the two men. Publicly Mr. Mbabazi says he will follow party rules
for choosing a successor, but insiders are concerned that despite his
influence with voting delegates any challenge mounted by him can succeed
only if Uganda's security establishment endorses it. And here Mr. Museveni
has a distinct advantage. The more likely scenario is that the "old man with
the hat" intends to anoint a successor, not be forced to concede to one.
Outside the NRM, the party faces virtually no significant political
opposition while Uganda's laws make it increasingly difficult for ordinary
citizens to question the government. A new post-Arab spring 'Public Order'
management law (it initially mooted police permission for any gatherings of
2 or more people) and other laws limiting freedom of association and
expression have virtually outlawed criticism of the government. It's this
edifice of incumbency that poses a practical challenge for both foreign
governments and domestic political forces seeking to define a future beyond
Mr. Museveni.
The Ugandan military establishment has governed through the leadership of
five US presidents, what will be a total of almost eight presidential terms
by 2016, when the US and Uganda will both hold their next elections. This
establishment has not just survived, but thrived in power, and the regime
has employed a strategy of giving to the West what the West wants - a
reliable partner in regional security. Defense spending has soared - in 2011
the country spent over a billion dollars (the highest in East Africa). The
<http://africanarguments.org/2014/03/04/is-yoweri-museveni-still-the-wests-m
an-in-africa-by-angelo-izama/>
moneyhttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png was drawn
from Consolidated Fund of Uganda - described by one commentator as the ATM
machine of the president. No prior parliamentary approval was sought, nor
did it meet with broad disapproval. Donors including the US were silent.
Many would be persuaded that change here may be more disruptive than
business as usual, especially considering the chaos of post-revolution North
Africa or Syria.
Uganda anchors US policy in central Africa, which is dominated by security
concerns and, after 9/11, by terrorism. Kampala has supplied her soldiers
for 'peacekeeping' operations in Somalia where the Uganda People's Defense
Forces (UPDF) did the heavy lifting against Al-Shabaab, an Al Qaeda
affiliate. Just north in Sudan, Uganda has also backed US policy, being
long-time allies of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army. Since 1986,
Ugandan troops have seen action in Rwanda, where Paul Kagame, a former
senior officer in the Ugandan army, now leads, in the DRC, Burundi, the
Central African Republic and Sudan. Kampala is the political equivalent of a
brokerage firm for rebels, rebellions and peace missions. It has more troops
abroad than any other country aside from the US itself. The head of that
firm is Mr. Museveni. The West is his biggest client with a resource hungry
China waiting anxiously outside. In fact, China's
<http://africanarguments.org/2014/03/04/is-yoweri-museveni-still-the-wests-m
an-in-africa-by-angelo-izama/>
investmentshttp://cdncache1-a.akamaihd.net/items/it/img/arrow-10x10.png
backed by sovereign wealth funds have already replaced aid as the main
source of government revenue - including rents for the political elite.
At plot 1577, the real emphasis is the DoD's relationship with the Ugandan
military. The US military considers the UPDF one of the most professional
African armies. But the fusion between the military and the government means
that diplomats speak with forked tongues about generic US interests of
promoting democracy and prosperity. Uganda's mainstream opposition, itself
comprised of Mr. Museveni's former military colleagues, accuses Washington
of not using its leverage to loosen Mr. Museveni's grip on power.
In the wake of the anti-gay kerfuffle Obama warned Mr. Museveni that
relations with America would suffer, but unless and until the security
relationship is recalibrated Washington's options won't improve.
That is because Uganda's position also comes with considerable reverse
leverage. And it shows. For example, despite being one of the first
governments to support the International Criminal Court, Uganda led
mobilization of African governments against the court, throwing its weight
behind Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, an Amherst graduate accused of war
crimes (it earlier signed an exception for American servicemen if accused of
war crimes, of course). The case against Kenyatta is now indefinitely
postponed.
President Barack Obama, while arguing that what Africa needs are strong
institutions and not strong men, nonetheless deployed American combat troops
in cooperation with the Ugandan military establishment, to hunt down Ugandan
warlord Joseph Kony, the most famous ICC suspect. That hunt is led by
US-trained Special Forces commanded by Brigadier Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Mr.
Museveni's son, himself a graduate of Fort Leavenworth. As seen from the
response of Ugandans to the perceived bullying of the country in the wake of
the anti-gay law, many are supportive of any measure of dignity and
'independence' that Museveni can achieve on the regional and global stage.
At home they look to the predictability of his years in government.
Angelo Izama is a Ugandan journalist and former OSI Fellow. He is working on
a book manuscript on the politics of Uganda's newly discovered oil
resources.
(image/jpeg attachment: image001.jpg)
(image/png attachment: image002.png)