"In most developing countries, 60% of women of childbearing age have access
to modern contraceptives. In much of Africa, the rate is 20%. There is a
clear link between the provision of contraception and lower fertility.
Uganda and Tanzania have roughly the same income per head, but Uganda's
government--until recently--discouraged family planning, and the country has
a significantly higher fertility rate. Somalia and Eritrea have roughly the
same income per head, but Eritrea provides some family planning and has
much lower fertility"
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21598648-birth-rates-are-not-falling-africa-fast-they-did-asia-more-contraception-would?fsrc=rss|lea
African demographyFertility treatmentBirth rates are not falling in Africa
as fast as they did in Asia. More contraception would help Mar 8th
2014 | From the print edition
THROUGHOUT most of the developing world, falling fertility has been a
quiet, almost stealthy force improving people's lives. Because it is easier
to educate two children than five, lower fertility goes hand in hand with
higher skills and increased earning power in the next generation. With
fewer dependent children, countries experience several generations in which
working-age adults make up a disproportionate share of the population. That
makes possible a "demographic dividend" of higher growth and rising incomes.
But one part of the world is missing out on the dividend: the swathe of
Africa that lies south of the Sahara and north of Namibia and Botswana.
Although this belt is enjoying economic growth, countries within it are not
seeing their fertility rates fall by as much as happened in East Asia and
Latin America when those regions were at a similar level of development
(see article). In some African countries, such as Niger, fertility remains
sky-high; in others, such as Ghana and Tanzania, fertility began to fall,
then stopped.
With fertility, small variations build up to make a huge difference over
time. In 1970, there were 360m Africans and they amounted to a tenth of the
world's population. If fertility were to drop roughly in line with Asia's
1970-2000 trajectory, there would be 2.1 billion Africans by 2050. If it
continues on its current path, there will be 2.7 billion--a quarter of the
global population then. Africa's population will almost triple in 40 years.
This extra half-billion people will damage Africa's prospects. The
continent will find it hard to educate the next generation--and education is
the most important step in realising the demographic dividend. By 2050,
there could be twice as many Africans below 14 years of age as there are
now. Despite a decade of growth, the continent is not generating enough
jobs in the formal economy to finance education properly. And if population
growth and urbanisation continue at their current pace, the continent's big
cities could become ungovernable. Kinshasa could have 30m people by 2050;
Lagos, 40m. That would make them larger and harder to manage than China's
giant cities are now.
There are many possible explanations for Africa's continued high fertility.
Africa is less densely-populated than Asia, and its wide-open spaces may
lead societies to feel that they need to have lots of children to defend
their territory from more numerous rivals. Many Africans have communal
social arrangements which mean that the costs of having extra children fall
on the village rather than the family. But another likely reason is that
modern family-planning services are not widely available. And this can be
changed.
In most developing countries, 60% of women of childbearing age have access
to modern contraceptives. In much of Africa, the rate is 20%. There is a
clear link between the provision of contraception and lower fertility.
Uganda and Tanzania have roughly the same income per head, but Uganda's
government--until recently--discouraged family planning, and the country has
a significantly higher fertility rate. Somalia and Eritrea have roughly the
same income per head, but Eritrea provides some family planning and has
much lower fertility.
Modern contraceptives are a cheap way to reduce maternal deaths from
dangerous abortions. They free parents from the burden of unwanted
pregnancies. And they help create lower-fertility, higher-income societies
that benefit everyone. African governments should provide them universally.
Received on Thu Mar 06 2014 - 12:26:40 EST